Dead-Apology — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$38

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

92.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$753

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$108

1 position

First seen

2026-01-10

last 10-01 04:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Other

76% 76% -$12

Tech

13% 67% -$23

Crypto

7% 100% +$0

Politics

4% 50% -$1

Sports

1% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		-110	-$94	98¢	$-108	-$14	05-25 07:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	1	$94	0	110	-110	open	—	05-25 07:14
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	1	$65	66	0	+66	Yes	+$0	04-19 09:36
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1	$53	53	0	+53	No	+$0	02-14 04:03
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	06-09 12:15
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	05-25 02:30
no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$39	40	0	+40	Yes	+$1	01-10 08:55
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$38	38	0	+38	Yes	+$0	04-19 09:33
will microstrategy be delisted from the msci index by march 31	1	$34	35	0	+35	No	+$1	01-10 08:51
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting?	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	05-25 02:12
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?	1	$33	33	0	+33	Yes	+$0	06-09 11:09
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?	1	$28	30	0	+30	Yes	+$2	02-14 04:00
trump out as president by march 31	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	03-10 03:21
US x Russia military clash by January 31, 2026?	1	$25	26	0	+26	No	+$1	01-10 08:54
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	7	$24	400	0	+400	Yes	-$24	04-19 10:43
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?	1	$22	22	0	+22	No	+$0	02-20 05:51
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	06-09 11:07
nothing ever happens jerome powell edition 394	2	$20	21	0	+21	Yes	+$1	02-16 13:50
us recognizes machado as leader of venezuela by january 31	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	01-10 08:52
will han duck soo be sentenced to no prison time	1	$19	20	0	+20	No	+$1	01-10 08:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$16	78	0	+78	No	-$16	06-09 11:08
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$16	16	0	+16	Yes	+$0	05-25 02:11
will megaeth perform an airdrop by march 15	1	$14	15	0	+15	No	+$1	02-20 05:57
Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?	1	$10	12	0	+12	No	+$1	06-09 11:06
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$2	100	0	+100	No	-$2	06-09 12:20
Will Alex Pereira be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	15	$2	250	0	+250	open	—	10-01 04:25
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$2	100	0	+100	No	-$2	06-14 04:18
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting?	3	$2	200	0	+200	No	-$2	05-26 17:02
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	4	$2	888	0	+888	No	-$2	01-10 09:49
will kim keon hee be sentenced to prison by march 31	1	$1	70	0	+70	Yes	-$1	01-10 16:59
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	1	$1	312	0	+312	No	-$1	04-19 09:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-01 04:25:06	Will Alex Pereira be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x76dd75…
09-30 16:53:11	Will Alex Pereira be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x76f709…
09-26 11:26:59	Will Alex Pereira be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x6fb060…
09-17 04:01:49	Will Alex Pereira be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x2bfe1e…
08-24 03:46:40	Will Alex Pereira be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	1¢	$0	0x5e87d4…
08-24 00:20:37	Will Alex Pereira be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xb1517d…
08-24 00:20:00	Will Alex Pereira be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xcfaf9f…
08-16 09:40:10	Will Alex Pereira be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x3358b9…
08-16 08:37:51	Will Alex Pereira be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	1¢	$0	0x6a3da3…
08-16 08:19:33	Will Alex Pereira be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xd6315d…
08-05 09:28:39	Will Alex Pereira be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	1¢	$0	0x5dd7d8…
07-18 00:25:49	Will Alex Pereira be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xa5e874…
07-16 18:25:25	Will Alex Pereira be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xc7345e…
07-08 14:08:49	Will Alex Pereira be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	1¢	$1	0x56675b…
07-04 23:01:40	Will Alex Pereira be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0x406c81…
06-14 04:18:15	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x4793b2…
06-09 12:20:49	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x62ff8d…
06-09 12:15:43	Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x697bff…
06-09 11:09:31	Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0xc398ce…
06-09 11:08:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	55	10¢	$6	0x9c6222…
06-09 11:07:39	Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0xd312d6…
06-09 11:06:45	Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	90¢	$10	0xa85fbf…
05-26 17:02:27	Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	BUY	85	1¢	$1	0x16296a…
05-25 07:21:38	Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xa8fcec…
05-25 07:14:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	110	85¢	$94	0xbb1c75…
05-25 06:53:37	Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	BUY	113	1¢	$1	0x9f8711…
05-25 02:30:42	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x3add21…
05-25 02:12:21	Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xffb677…
05-25 02:11:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xb56d09…
05-25 02:08:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	23	46¢	$11	0x2faa64…
04-19 10:43:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x00b1d2…
04-19 10:42:48	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	21	6¢	$1	0x6bf0c9…
04-19 10:38:16	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	81	6¢	$5	0xa124b6…
04-19 10:32:48	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	81	6¢	$5	0xc7cb77…
04-19 10:27:20	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	81	6¢	$5	0x010326…
04-19 10:21:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	81	6¢	$5	0x81e4ef…
04-19 10:16:22	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	53	6¢	$3	0x1d9756…
04-19 09:36:44	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	BUY	66	99¢	$65	0x8e5bc9…
04-19 09:34:04	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	312	0¢	$1	0x6957e8…
04-19 09:33:20	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x018dd5…
03-10 03:21:59	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xfe4327…
02-20 05:57:54	will megaeth perform an airdrop by march 15	No	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0x31bebc…
02-20 05:51:02	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x8e5ee7…
02-16 13:50:15	nothing ever happens jerome powell edition 394	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x5d3a8f…
02-16 01:58:41	nothing ever happens jerome powell edition 394	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x973cd3…
02-14 04:03:29	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	53	99¢	$53	0x1ceae7…
02-14 04:00:51	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x453bac…
01-10 16:59:56	will kim keon hee be sentenced to prison by march 31	No	BUY	70	2¢	$1	0xa86bf7…
01-10 09:49:38	Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0xb96f2d…
01-10 09:48:26	Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0xe2ec3d…
01-10 09:48:26	Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x0f9215…
01-10 08:56:58	Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	840	0¢	$2	0x8b875a…
01-10 08:55:52	no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x388068…
01-10 08:54:32	US x Russia military clash by January 31, 2026?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x0cf912…
01-10 08:53:38	will han duck soo be sentenced to no prison time	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xdd20e3…
01-10 08:52:54	us recognizes machado as leader of venezuela by january 31	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x21f55a…
01-10 08:51:02	will microstrategy be delisted from the msci index by march 31	No	BUY	35	96¢	$34	0x315c8e…