Graceful-Guerrilla — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

—

Unrealized P&L

+$1.61K

Hit rate

—

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

359

461 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$475.6K

$514.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.12K

Open exposure

$43.0K

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-18

last 06-10 18:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

56% 0% $-23

Politics

44% 100% +$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 89 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		+41,030	$37,177	92¢	$38.0K	+$775	06-10 17:13
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No		+6,014	$4,191	84¢	$5.0K	+$831	06-01 17:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	71	$112.9K	58,593	58,593	+0	open	—	05-27 13:29
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	58	$95.4K	51,985	46,686	+5,299	open	—	06-10 08:30
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	87	$72.9K	38,341	38,243	+98	open	—	05-28 03:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	46	$42.1K	22,120	22,120	+0	open	—	05-13 04:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	7	$37.2K	41,030	0	+41,030	open	—	06-10 17:13
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	8	$33.1K	18,030	18,030	+0	open	—	05-28 17:54
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	31	$27.3K	20,837	9,063	+11,774	open	—	05-31 22:23
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	2	$20.1K	10,500	10,500	+0	open	—	05-27 03:06
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	3	$12.0K	12,550	0	+12,550	open	—	06-10 09:59
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	12	$10.1K	148	10,020	-9,872	open	—	05-26 04:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	1	$9.4K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	06-01 16:56
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	17	$7.1K	7,570	0	+7,570	open	—	06-09 17:33
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	32	$6.0K	6,600	0	+6,600	open	—	05-13 11:48
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	10	$5.4K	2,790	2,790	+0	open	—	05-31 04:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$5.0K	2,549	2,549	+0	open	—	06-01 03:05
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	3	$4.9K	5,248	0	+5,248	open	—	06-10 20:25
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	7	$4.2K	6,014	0	+6,014	open	—	06-01 17:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	9	$2.3K	1,159	1,159	+0	No	+$7	05-08 14:45
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	6	$2.0K	1,161	1,161	+0	open	—	04-30 11:01
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	6	$1.8K	989	989	+0	open	—	06-01 02:08
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3	$955	481	481	+0	open	—	06-01 04:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$739	500	500	+0	open	—	04-21 20:58
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	3	$244	500	500	+0	open	—	05-05 17:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$196	100	100	+0	No	+$4	05-12 06:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	2	$193	100	100	+0	open	—	05-12 14:17
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	3	$187	100	100	+0	open	—	04-26 19:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$183	100	100	+0	open	—	05-11 05:15
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	2	$171	129	129	+0	open	—	04-27 05:40
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	3	$155	158	0	+158	open	—	06-07 12:09
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	2	$145	100	100	+0	open	—	05-29 16:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 20:25:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0x8d46bb…
06-10 18:44:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	3,060	94¢	$2,876	0xf94e02…
06-10 17:13:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0x9a5b35…
06-10 09:59:03	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	10,000	96¢	$9,600	0x8406a6…
06-10 08:52:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	40	91¢	$37	0xf738f0…
06-10 08:45:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x351f6e…
06-10 08:42:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xd1e6c9…
06-10 08:42:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x06008c…
06-10 08:42:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	38,925	91¢	$35,422	0xbea221…
06-10 08:30:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	40,825	99¢	$40,498	0x3485d7…
06-10 03:45:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	2,180	92¢	$2,006	0x725f2b…
06-09 17:33:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x9eb7a5…
06-09 15:56:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	425	98¢	$416	0x0a86b5…
06-09 14:26:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0x32868f…
06-09 14:19:58	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	139	99¢	$136	0xc902ae…
06-09 05:28:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x96b698…
06-09 05:25:48	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0xfc104d…
06-08 17:27:42	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217	No	BUY	17	21¢	$4	0x82823a…
06-08 17:22:48	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 22 2026 20260607225940216	No	BUY	41	38¢	$15	0x14e714…
06-08 13:12:51	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x6e2aff…
06-08 11:00:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0xf5bb3f…
06-08 10:37:15	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	160	93¢	$149	0x0febdc…
06-08 10:36:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	840	93¢	$781	0x43e500…
06-08 10:05:33	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0x5db614…
06-08 09:44:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	5,041	94¢	$4,744	0x8c0ca2…
06-08 09:43:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	199	94¢	$187	0x6d4d6d…
06-08 09:43:13	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	72	94¢	$68	0x212876…
06-08 09:43:01	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	72	94¢	$68	0x8a6adf…
06-08 09:42:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	442	94¢	$415	0xbb94c5…
06-08 09:41:01	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xa889b6…
06-08 09:40:54	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	45	94¢	$42	0x8f5253…
06-07 12:09:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x9f37dc…
06-07 04:16:03	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,550	94¢	$1,457	0x55417d…
06-06 18:27:18	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xc446e9…
06-06 18:19:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$985	0x91e20b…
06-06 17:56:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	220	99¢	$216	0x6a8352…
06-06 17:43:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	300	99¢	$295	0x4301d3…
06-06 17:16:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	3,067	99¢	$3,021	0xb496ab…
06-06 16:30:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	133	99¢	$131	0x92346a…
06-06 15:26:54	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	BUY	124	98¢	$121	0x0892fd…
06-04 22:53:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,000	83¢	$1,660	0xbc58eb…
06-04 19:10:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1,505	96¢	$1,447	0xf3291e…
06-04 15:04:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	150	96¢	$145	0x4347b7…
06-03 20:31:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	9,332	97¢	$9,014	0x294439…
06-03 20:31:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x4b0403…
06-03 20:30:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf69833…
06-03 20:19:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x951eb7…
06-03 20:19:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x7f2aba…
06-03 20:19:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	70	97¢	$68	0x3f5bdb…
06-03 20:19:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x05029c…
06-03 20:19:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xc4d89a…
06-03 18:55:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	5,000	97¢	$4,840	0xaafa96…
06-03 18:14:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x0c829a…
06-03 18:05:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0xd261e7…
06-03 18:01:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4886d5…
06-03 17:47:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xdfd42a…
06-03 17:23:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	9	97¢	$8	0x5eaa18…
06-03 17:18:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	88	97¢	$85	0xceca92…
06-03 17:11:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$9	0x70db3b…
06-03 17:03:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	241	97¢	$233	0x54b06c…
06-03 16:52:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0x8ee05c…
06-03 16:49:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9a0b8d…
06-03 16:46:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x862348…
06-02 10:31:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x877cdd…
06-01 19:53:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	58	95¢	$55	0x559673…
06-01 19:07:29	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	130	93¢	$121	0x478ab5…
06-01 17:16:41	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	260	68¢	$177	0x215149…
06-01 17:15:12	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	545	68¢	$370	0x0a4223…
06-01 16:56:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	94¢	$9,400	0xcf3463…
06-01 16:28:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	19,372	97¢	$18,694	0x85c0d0…
06-01 14:51:33	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	5,000	70¢	$3,500	0xedf4f1…
06-01 14:49:02	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	60	69¢	$41	0xeeca40…
06-01 14:48:59	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	21	69¢	$14	0xff5f16…
06-01 14:48:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	48	69¢	$33	0xbb90e9…
06-01 14:48:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	80	68¢	$54	0xc80076…
06-01 04:09:25	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	481	100¢	$481	0x415160…
06-01 03:05:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,549	100¢	$2,546	0xc15702…
06-01 02:08:57	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	SELL	989	100¢	$988	0x119cc5…
05-31 22:23:02	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	9,774	99¢	$9,676	0xe0a126…
05-31 09:26:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0xa6e05a…
05-31 09:24:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	53	94¢	$50	0x0c419e…
05-31 08:18:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x434580…
05-31 08:15:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0xd62054…
05-31 08:02:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x158d68…
05-31 07:51:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0xe6f756…
05-31 07:41:18	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	228	99¢	$225	0x737f0d…
05-31 06:38:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x14bda6…
05-31 06:10:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	12	94¢	$11	0xee23ae…
05-31 05:43:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	53	94¢	$50	0x2230d1…
05-31 04:42:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,549	98¢	$2,501	0x955a8d…
05-31 04:39:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xe61253…
05-31 04:39:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x90958b…
05-31 04:39:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xa0c596…
05-31 04:24:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x944b35…
05-31 04:19:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	213	94¢	$200	0x8700b1…
05-31 04:18:26	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	253	99¢	$250	0xe3e535…
05-31 04:06:25	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	No	SELL	2,790	100¢	$2,787	0x35425e…
05-31 04:04:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xcc7730…
05-31 03:42:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x345a3a…
05-31 03:42:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	17	94¢	$16	0xe683af…