Tender-Pine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16.4K

Unrealized P&L

-$52

Hit rate

82.3%

Resolved

310

Trades

1,854

lifetime

Volume

$1.77M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$953

Open exposure

$1.05K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-29 05:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 103 days

Categories

Politics

55% 72% -$12,346

Other

44% 90% +$28,218

Crypto

1% 91% +$240

Tech

0% 94% +$357

Sports

0% 50% -$106

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+1,075	$1,000	94¢	$1.0K	+$16	10-29 05:01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	+11	$10	100¢	$11	+$1	09-26 02:23
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	-11	-$10	95¢	$-10	$0	05-15 02:08
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+10	$6	94¢	$9	+$3	09-11 20:39
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+100	$75	3¢	$3	-$72	05-09 03:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	56	$168.8K	89,171	86,975	+2,196	Yes	+$5,682	01-26 16:27
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	23	$163.3K	84,872	84,872	+0	Yes	+$4,589	04-17 17:17
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	41	$140.0K	70,955	81,990	-11,035	Yes	+$100	03-05 03:32
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	18	$118.7K	71,353	71,191	+161	Yes	+$4,285	09-15 18:07
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	17	$91.0K	71,757	21,000	+50,757	No	+$1,611	05-01 06:01
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	21	$79.7K	45,641	35,641	+10,000	No	+$1,532	04-16 02:55
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	124	$73.5K	53,983	24,983	+29,000	Yes	+$3,864	05-13 01:55
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	43	$56.6K	57,769	2,838	+54,931	No	+$2,266	04-21 14:11
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	14	$47.1K	23,962	23,862	+100	No	+$648	04-24 01:34
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	28	$44.7K	24,886	23,886	+1,000	No	-$654	04-25 06:19
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	27	$39.9K	22,434	22,434	+0	Yes	-$3,710	04-07 21:54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	69	$37.6K	23,859	23,759	+100	No	-$6,490	04-30 22:27
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	15	$32.9K	18,648	18,647	+1	No	-$2,398	04-23 04:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	9	$32.3K	16,466	16,366	+100	No	+$434	06-07 19:52
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	27	$28.3K	21,194	21,194	+0	Yes	-$11,862	04-07 22:09
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	28	$27.1K	15,604	13,495	+2,108	Yes	+$325	05-12 18:14
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	18	$26.7K	26,009	2,541	+23,468	No	+$1,434	04-20 04:52
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	12	$22.4K	13,108	10,108	+3,000	No	+$794	04-24 06:11
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	29	$21.3K	11,100	11,100	+0	No	+$225	05-22 05:55
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	10	$20.7K	11,114	10,114	+1,000	No	+$443	04-22 06:26
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	20	$15.5K	8,272	8,262	+10	No	-$500	04-24 20:05
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	12	$15.4K	9,424	9,004	+420	Yes	-$392	04-21 01:10
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	10	$15.0K	7,684	7,674	+10	No	-$110	04-21 03:05
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	20	$14.0K	16,313	0	+16,313	No	+$2,264	03-31 23:49
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	7	$13.8K	7,141	7,041	+100	No	-$129	04-27 00:21
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	14	$13.6K	7,057	7,047	+10	No	+$371	04-23 01:05
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	15	$13.2K	15,174	0	+15,174	No	+$1,924	03-31 23:47
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 19 2026	3	$12.2K	6,177	6,167	+10	No	+$105	04-19 19:36
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	18	$11.3K	10,146	2,394	+7,752	No	-$429	04-30 22:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	13	$10.6K	8,649	2,603	+6,046	No	-$254	05-14 13:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 05:01:50	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,075	93¢	$1,000	0xcfeed8…
10-27 12:41:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xb73c52…
10-24 03:31:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	319	94¢	$300	0xeddfe4…
10-16 05:34:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	714	84¢	$600	0x2df129…
10-15 21:17:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	278	72¢	$200	0x051989…
10-14 13:53:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	597	55¢	$328	0xea5d8d…
10-09 04:25:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	235	85¢	$200	0xdcf9bb…
10-03 14:54:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	361	83¢	$300	0x1a5749…
10-01 07:10:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x118c3d…
10-01 07:09:12	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x3bbdc7…
09-29 18:47:00	Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x546faf…
09-26 02:23:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xbe58e6…
09-21 14:31:02	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf05af8…
09-21 14:30:12	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0xc6cfb7…
09-21 14:29:35	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x002380…
09-21 14:08:17	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	SELL	600	100¢	$598	0x5ec56c…
09-21 13:32:42	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	SELL	600	100¢	$598	0xf1bc7c…
09-21 13:22:05	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	SELL	645	100¢	$643	0xc809e1…
09-21 11:40:39	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x4249f9…
09-21 11:09:26	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1,000	100¢	$996	0x86e62d…
09-21 10:51:26	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0xa15a57…
09-21 10:00:24	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0x67be2a…
09-21 09:34:57	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	SELL	352	100¢	$350	0x837fce…
09-21 08:56:15	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	SELL	211	99¢	$210	0x30ecd9…
09-21 08:54:59	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	SELL	104	100¢	$104	0xc2f075…
09-18 21:09:31	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xb7b2c8…
09-18 21:08:49	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	212	94¢	$200	0x3d4dd1…
09-18 21:07:45	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	BUY	829	96¢	$800	0xffb40e…
09-18 21:07:04	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	BUY	3,112	96¢	$3,000	0x78cdc5…
09-17 05:06:49	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x48e9a3…
09-15 18:07:03	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x602c3b…
09-15 18:02:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	23,050	87¢	$20,054	0x42ed51…
09-15 15:09:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11,600	87¢	$10,092	0x84b1dc…
09-15 10:17:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11,507	88¢	$10,126	0x79984a…
09-15 09:56:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	961	88¢	$845	0x6d8806…
09-15 09:55:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,232	88¢	$1,085	0x772f54…
09-15 09:42:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11,500	87¢	$10,005	0x00cc7b…
09-11 21:19:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,235	81¢	$1,000	0xf02071…
09-11 21:18:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12,346	81¢	$10,000	0x70b967…
09-11 21:10:55	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	SELL	208	96¢	$200	0x1765da…
09-11 20:40:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,098	82¢	$5,000	0xbddfbc…
09-11 20:39:36	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	SELL	108	87¢	$94	0x6de844…
09-11 20:38:39	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xba2015…
09-11 20:38:22	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x73390d…
09-11 20:38:10	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	131	98¢	$129	0x92e9d7…
09-11 20:37:16	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3,352	98¢	$3,268	0xcfddd5…
09-11 20:35:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12,346	81¢	$10,000	0xf55d3b…
09-11 20:35:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	24,691	81¢	$20,000	0x957c2d…
09-11 20:30:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12,346	81¢	$10,000	0xd9c243…
09-07 20:38:36	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	209	96¢	$200	0x41c36b…
09-07 04:26:45	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	BUY	209	96¢	$200	0x7bfd6e…
09-04 02:14:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x8baa7c…
09-04 02:14:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	42¢	$0	0x7aca32…
09-04 02:13:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	42¢	$0	0x19d2db…
09-02 13:52:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,280	55¢	$1,254	0xf2c0f9…
09-02 13:51:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1,203	57¢	$686	0x1e51bf…
09-02 05:39:34	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x669ff6…
09-02 05:38:36	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x3d4456…
09-02 05:38:00	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x7d352c…
09-01 17:41:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	820	61¢	$500	0x8fdc45…
09-01 05:26:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	42¢	$0	0x868605…
09-01 05:26:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,754	57¢	$1,000	0xd8d5da…
08-31 21:02:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	526	57¢	$300	0xc57699…
08-28 22:13:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	385	52¢	$200	0x90a4e7…
08-28 14:58:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	199	53¢	$105	0xde231c…
08-25 18:00:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	474	65¢	$308	0x74a05d…
08-19 20:45:15	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?	Yes	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x0a1668…
08-19 20:44:15	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?	Yes	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0xc46967…
08-19 20:43:55	Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?	No	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0xf93345…
08-19 20:42:55	Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?	No	BUY	75	93¢	$70	0x151bd6…
08-19 20:42:37	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?	Yes	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x24d720…
08-17 05:24:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	75¢	$300	0x3a0642…
08-16 15:54:43	will donald trump publicly insult xi jinping by august 31 2026 20260730161742256	No	SELL	104	100¢	$104	0xcb2bab…
08-14 04:27:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	274	73¢	$200	0xc9e5e9…
08-09 19:45:19	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x9d15f3…
08-09 19:44:37	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,105	95¢	$2,000	0x6f7d1b…
08-09 19:43:00	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x86442c…
08-05 17:39:00	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	161	93¢	$150	0xe148fb…
08-02 19:41:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	51	74¢	$38	0x2b1b17…
08-01 15:38:11	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x14e883…
08-01 15:16:24	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x20f228…
08-01 15:15:02	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x52b30f…
08-01 15:13:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x68ff5f…
08-01 15:06:56	will donald trump publicly insult xi jinping by august 31 2026 20260730161742256	No	BUY	104	95¢	$99	0xcbde21…
07-31 19:00:12	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	No	BUY	706	99¢	$700	0x4e7e23…
07-31 18:58:50	will donald trump publicly insult xi jinping by august 31 2026 20260730161742256	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x3d29b1…
07-31 08:38:35	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	203	99¢	$200	0xef56c9…
07-31 08:35:59	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	No	BUY	308	97¢	$300	0x4ba63f…
07-31 08:31:17	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	No	BUY	514	97¢	$500	0x6a4b4f…
07-31 08:30:08	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x100a76…
07-31 04:16:30	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd0bf8b…
07-31 03:21:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	1,029	97¢	$1,000	0xa82b11…
07-29 14:11:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	2,083	96¢	$2,000	0xd3051b…
07-29 14:10:30	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xbac1aa…
07-29 14:08:36	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa78f39…
07-29 09:36:02	will donald trump publicly insult kevin warsh by july 31 2026 20260626210612736	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x831c51…
07-29 08:39:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	507	79¢	$400	0x73f17d…
07-29 02:31:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x112042…
07-28 02:50:45	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x91156e…
07-27 07:27:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	249	80¢	$200	0x65b8c6…