Carefree-Sauerkraut — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$51.2K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.94K

Hit rate

59.9%

Resolved

Trades

788

lifetime

Volume

$887.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.13K

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-26

last 09-23 15:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Other

44% 54% +$36,483

Politics

33% 64% +$12,686

Crypto

20% 60% -$4,629

Sports

4% 100% +$6,662

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes		+0	-$1,944	2¢	$0	+$1,944	09-10 18:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	128	$133.9K	269,411	158,443	+110,968	No	-$7,776	06-03 13:57
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$67.9K	68,220	0	+68,220	Yes	+$273	04-07 15:39
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	53	$60.3K	172,487	3,508	+168,979	Yes	+$52,554	08-12 21:11
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	1	$52.3K	52,541	0	+52,541	No	+$251	03-04 16:08
dota2 ts8 liquid 2026 08 21	5	$43.2K	100,000	15,000	+85,000	Team Spirit	-$31,800	08-22 01:29
dota2 ironwi boombo 2026 08 20	3	$41.0K	99,902	0	+99,902	BoomBoys	-$40,960	08-20 21:11
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	72	$34.7K	26,874	21,544	+5,330	Yes	+$6,007	06-20 03:39
cs2 lgc fal2 2026 08 21 game1	6	$31.3K	50,000	1,900	+48,100	Legacy	-$28,651	08-21 14:12
dota2 ts8 vsn2 2026 08 21	1	$31.0K	50,000	0	+50,000	TEAM VISION	+$19,000	08-21 07:13
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	18	$29.9K	63,860	0	+63,860	Yes	+$7,501	09-10 00:29
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	16	$25.9K	32,790	0	+32,790	Yes	+$6,886	09-18 17:38
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner	1	$25.0K	33,333	0	+33,333	Team Falcons	+$8,333	08-27 17:10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	7	$21.1K	22,222	0	+22,222	No	+$1,111	04-09 20:05
will mrbeasts next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1 363	15	$18.8K	41,534	0	+41,534	Yes	+$21,160	03-13 20:13
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	28	$17.5K	21,940	0	+21,940	No	+$4,406	04-23 16:00
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	57	$17.5K	55,555	55,555	+0	open	—	09-10 18:37
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	1	$17.4K	34,170	0	+34,170	MOUZ	+$16,757	08-27 13:17
over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	22	$17.0K	27,290	0	+27,290	Yes	-$1,722	07-17 16:46
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	10	$16.1K	47,150	0	+47,150	No	-$16,061	08-20 21:49
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	10	$15.7K	27,814	0	+27,814	Legacy	-$15,688	08-27 14:20
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	16	$13.6K	32,036	16,757	+15,279	Yes	+$2,249	03-24 20:59
cs2 lgc ts7 2026 08 22	27	$10.0K	43,777	0	+43,777	Spirit	-$10,027	08-22 18:00
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	7	$9.9K	8,762	2,848	+5,913	Yes	+$608	04-16 15:36
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A	1	$9.6K	12,780	0	+12,780	FURIA	+$3,195	08-26 15:41
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$9.4K	21,960	0	+21,960	No	+$1,705	09-01 15:12
over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	9	$9.0K	10,954	0	+10,954	No	+$1,947	07-17 16:50
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	6	$8.7K	12,055	12,055	+0	Yes	+$784	03-03 18:52
will mrbeasts next video get 90 million or more views on week 1	10	$8.1K	27,022	0	+27,022	No	-$4,688	03-13 20:09
will axiom be accused of insider trading	2	$7.9K	27,547	0	+27,547	Yes	+$19,654	02-26 12:53
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	30	$7.7K	16,666	0	+16,666	Yes	-$2,111	03-25 16:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-23 15:57:32	Will Trump say "Ballroom" during his Ribbon Cutting Ceremony?	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$17	0x04b8e0…
09-18 17:38:22	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	24	79¢	$19	0x202487…
09-18 17:27:33	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	500	79¢	$395	0x8f6b69…
09-18 17:26:24	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xf3dd70…
09-18 17:26:12	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	57	79¢	$45	0xac792e…
09-18 17:24:07	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x367613…
09-18 17:22:58	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,500	79¢	$1,185	0x9d2d49…
09-18 17:22:58	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x8f93e2…
09-18 17:22:58	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	72	79¢	$57	0x88baae…
09-18 17:22:58	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	450	79¢	$356	0x4b44c9…
09-18 17:21:27	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	952	79¢	$752	0x47dc5b…
09-18 17:16:30	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	48	79¢	$38	0xc0264b…
09-18 17:09:54	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,295	79¢	$1,023	0x7bade2…
09-18 17:08:30	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x36d25d…
09-18 17:05:36	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	95	79¢	$75	0x6132c7…
09-18 16:59:37	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2,648	79¢	$2,092	0xb2198f…
09-18 16:59:13	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	25,024	79¢	$19,769	0xf8a6f0…
09-18 14:57:49	Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Yes	BUY	105	22¢	$23	0x7466f6…
09-18 14:57:48	Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Yes	BUY	3,251	22¢	$715	0x334c9d…
09-15 13:49:19	Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	BUY	951	18¢	$170	0x5e26ba…
09-11 02:41:22	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	97	47¢	$46	0xc22983…
09-11 01:46:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	4,472	47¢	$2,106	0xb060df…
09-10 18:37:36	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	27,778	18¢	$5,000	0xba6c0d…
09-10 17:59:45	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10,693	17¢	$1,818	0x657dde…
09-10 17:11:43	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,167	17¢	$198	0x2461ce…
09-10 17:10:49	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	588	17¢	$100	0xf46289…
09-10 17:02:30	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0xa9ad6e…
09-10 16:53:36	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0xbfae80…
09-10 15:38:49	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	17¢	$5	0x37f8bf…
09-10 15:30:51	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	118	17¢	$20	0xb44eac…
09-10 15:18:49	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	227	17¢	$39	0x7b95ae…
09-10 14:58:33	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	17¢	$2	0xfb6578…
09-10 14:55:27	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,176	17¢	$200	0x415252…
09-10 14:37:12	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	312	17¢	$53	0x96328e…
09-10 14:30:28	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	17¢	$2	0xcc9cb2…
09-10 14:29:36	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	118	17¢	$20	0x811dec…
09-10 12:07:03	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0xe56283…
09-10 11:46:04	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	17¢	$85	0x550a69…
09-10 10:24:15	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	17¢	$5	0x20853e…
09-10 10:19:54	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	17¢	$10	0x374511…
09-10 09:23:18	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,157	17¢	$197	0xa7b943…
09-10 08:29:45	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x25c2fc…
09-10 07:43:58	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	17¢	$10	0xbce830…
09-10 06:31:06	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,335	17¢	$397	0x4fd049…
09-10 05:56:40	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	17¢	$5	0x218149…
09-10 05:44:55	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	694	17¢	$118	0xf2ab48…
09-10 05:44:03	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	17¢	$2	0xa6ba32…
09-10 04:23:46	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x1401e2…
09-10 03:02:49	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	17¢	$10	0xc1ed86…
09-10 00:49:24	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	17¢	$10	0x64bd2a…
09-10 00:46:00	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	17¢	$6	0xb59c71…
09-10 00:45:55	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	17¢	$5	0xe3f8a1…
09-10 00:45:54	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	17¢	$6	0x8ba1ac…
09-10 00:45:52	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	17¢	$170	0xb3d158…
09-10 00:45:52	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	98	17¢	$17	0xa9f65e…
09-10 00:29:01	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	26,412	45¢	$11,871	0xc01777…
09-10 00:09:33	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0xc0d988…
09-10 00:09:33	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0x4864ab…
09-10 00:09:27	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0xaf3ade…
09-10 00:09:25	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	977	50¢	$489	0x63bb4e…
09-09 19:04:09	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	206	50¢	$103	0x6e37ff…
09-09 19:00:27	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	379	50¢	$189	0xa8c0fa…
09-09 18:59:09	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	394	50¢	$197	0x9951b7…
09-09 18:55:40	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	500	50¢	$250	0x5919e5…
09-09 18:55:16	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2,730	50¢	$1,365	0x7e65c6…
09-09 18:54:16	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	39	52¢	$20	0xaeedfe…
09-09 18:51:37	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,514	52¢	$782	0x6182fa…
09-09 18:19:16	LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	377	85¢	$320	0x1426b0…
09-09 18:18:22	LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	3,378	85¢	$2,871	0x708aef…
09-09 18:15:57	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	11,933	60¢	$7,160	0x5d7449…
09-09 18:14:28	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2,000	60¢	$1,200	0x62de96…
09-09 18:12:10	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	62	60¢	$37	0x98bb00…
09-09 18:11:12	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	6,000	60¢	$3,600	0x83d6c1…
09-09 18:10:34	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x0be148…
09-09 17:23:49	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	Yes	BUY	5,228	32¢	$1,673	0x5d516c…
09-09 17:22:52	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	Yes	BUY	12,453	30¢	$3,722	0x559c35…
09-09 10:07:28	Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,488	32¢	$476	0xf4beb9…
09-08 20:07:48	us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	Yes	BUY	10,460	43¢	$4,468	0x41bfb2…
09-08 12:21:21	Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	BUY	56	20¢	$11	0x5491a7…
09-08 07:31:13	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0x8385ff…
09-08 06:21:00	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0x9d2457…
09-08 06:06:39	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	17¢	$2	0x0d28f7…
09-08 06:04:18	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0x842057…
09-08 05:17:10	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	65	17¢	$11	0x6a309f…
09-08 05:11:31	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	421	17¢	$72	0x517fd5…
09-08 05:07:48	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	17¢	$2	0xf2d872…
09-08 04:17:19	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	588	17¢	$100	0xb66ac9…
09-08 04:12:19	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	17¢	$2	0x306dfb…
09-08 04:10:39	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	17¢	$3	0x06ec26…
09-08 03:51:31	laptop fdv above 500m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	10,695	25¢	$2,674	0x9325bf…
09-08 03:44:40	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	254	17¢	$43	0x713557…
09-08 03:21:37	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	118	17¢	$20	0x06e6e3…
09-08 02:33:39	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	17¢	$20	0x5ba59d…
09-08 02:25:04	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,225	17¢	$718	0x74ddb5…
09-08 02:20:48	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0xf30a44…
09-08 02:19:01	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	17¢	$21	0x3c8764…
09-08 01:56:57	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x306c6d…
09-08 01:34:00	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	217	17¢	$37	0x554563…
09-08 01:06:30	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	17¢	$6	0xd98056…
09-08 01:05:49	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	17¢	$13	0x04cf99…