Fat-Ironclad — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$264

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.8%

Resolved

Trades

109

lifetime

Volume

$16.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$154

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-11

last 06-04 07:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 59% $-256

Politics

2% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 88 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	14	$3.2K	2,033	2,033	+0	Up	+$786	05-11 09:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	4	$2.9K	1,708	1,708	+0	Up	+$491	05-11 09:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	11	$2.3K	1,505	1,505	+0	Down	+$715	05-11 09:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	3	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	Up	+$166	05-11 09:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	3	$1.0K	1,480	1,480	+0	Up	$-985	05-11 09:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	7	$867	497	497	+0	Up	+$117	05-11 08:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	3	$794	1,400	0	+1,400	Down	$-794	05-11 09:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	5	$780	1,000	1,000	+0	Down	$-320	05-11 09:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	3	$678	1,164	0	+1,164	Down	$-678	05-11 09:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	8	$460	836	0	+836	Up	+$376	05-11 08:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	5	$439	300	300	+0	Up	$-1	05-11 08:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$264	183	183	+0	open	—	06-04 07:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	2	$211	146	146	+0	Up	+$11	05-11 08:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	4	$211	477	106	+370	Down	$-89	05-11 08:27
btc updown 5m 1780559700	2	$148	75	75	+0	open	—	06-04 07:59
btc updown 5m 1780559400	2	$108	60	60	+0	open	—	06-04 07:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	2	$94	55	55	+0	Down	+$14	05-12 03:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	7	$81	205	205	+0	Down	+$1	05-11 08:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	2	$74	47	47	+0	Up	+$19	05-12 03:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$71	50	50	+0	open	—	05-26 10:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	2	$57	73	73	+0	Up	$-16	05-11 09:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	1	$50	77	0	+77	Down	$-50	05-12 03:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	1	$25	263	0	+263	Down	$-25	05-11 08:54
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	3	$20	15	15	+0	Down	+$0	05-11 08:19
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?	1	$19	25	0	+25	Down	+$6	05-11 09:46
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)	1	$18	71	0	+71	open	—	05-30 21:21
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	1	$18	20	0	+20	open	—	05-30 21:20
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5	1	$13	28	0	+28	open	—	05-30 21:21
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5	1	$13	27	0	+27	open	—	05-30 21:22
Spread: Thunder (-3.5)	1	$13	27	0	+27	open	—	05-30 21:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 07:59:21	btc updown 5m 1780559700	Down	SELL	75	99¢	$74	0x3334e3…
06-04 07:58:40	btc updown 5m 1780559700	Down	BUY	75	99¢	$74	0x90f255…
06-04 07:53:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	24	74¢	$18	0x38ff90…
06-04 07:53:01	btc updown 5m 1780559400	Down	SELL	60	93¢	$56	0x01396a…
06-04 07:51:31	btc updown 5m 1780559400	Down	BUY	60	86¢	$52	0x235447…
05-30 21:22:07	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5	Under	BUY	27	49¢	$13	0xd7f31c…
05-30 21:21:39	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5	Over	BUY	28	48¢	$13	0xf43094…
05-30 21:21:23	Spread: Thunder (-11.5)	Thunder	BUY	71	25¢	$18	0xc5eb65…
05-30 21:20:55	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x2d419f…
05-30 21:20:43	Spread: Thunder (-3.5)	Thunder	BUY	27	49¢	$13	0xb99817…
05-30 21:20:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	73¢	$18	0x2e5108…
05-30 21:18:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	158	72¢	$114	0xa05a65…
05-30 19:06:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	158	72¢	$114	0xb276a6…
05-26 10:38:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	68¢	$34	0x632169…
05-26 07:35:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x3c1fdf…
05-12 03:23:59	Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	42	19¢	$8	0x4cd323…
05-12 03:16:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0xf8e191…
05-12 03:15:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	55	99¢	$54	0x4c9671…
05-12 03:11:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	55	73¢	$40	0xbb62f9…
05-12 03:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	47	99¢	$46	0x03b014…
05-12 03:07:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	47	59¢	$28	0xdbf590…
05-11 09:46:32	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	25	76¢	$19	0xcb958c…
05-11 09:42:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	73	28¢	$20	0x33f097…
05-11 09:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	73	50¢	$36	0xefc6f7…
05-11 09:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	300	55¢	$166	0x234d5d…
05-11 09:36:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	500	53¢	$265	0xb67f31…
05-11 09:35:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	600	61¢	$363	0xea56bf…
05-11 09:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	301	21¢	$63	0x17e35f…
05-11 09:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	699	24¢	$167	0x13a84e…
05-11 09:26:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	14	55¢	$8	0xc62201…
05-11 09:26:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	809	55¢	$445	0xa2f26a…
05-11 09:26:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	178	55¢	$98	0x554dd6…
05-11 09:25:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	SELL	1,000	99¢	$990	0xba95f6…
05-11 09:24:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	984	82¢	$810	0xf83f41…
05-11 09:24:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	16	86¢	$14	0xd74a6d…
05-11 09:16:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	700	58¢	$404	0x8a71c0…
05-11 09:16:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	300	58¢	$174	0x9bda50…
05-11 09:16:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0x8af55d…
05-11 09:15:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	1,708	99¢	$1,691	0x48d175…
05-11 09:10:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1,219	70¢	$857	0xb8eee8…
05-11 09:10:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	195	73¢	$143	0x4ef9f9…
05-11 09:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	294	68¢	$200	0x21ed0f…
05-11 09:09:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1,480	1¢	$15	0x03080e…
05-11 09:07:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	908	66¢	$599	0xdf9f78…
05-11 09:07:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	573	70¢	$401	0x1ca5ad…
05-11 09:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2,033	99¢	$2,013	0xc82222…
05-11 09:02:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x1e8a84…
05-11 09:02:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	162	62¢	$100	0xb04866…
05-11 09:01:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x1adefa…
05-11 09:01:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	168	59¢	$100	0x666ac5…
05-11 09:01:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0x20402a…
05-11 09:01:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0xabcaab…
05-11 09:01:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	148	67¢	$100	0xfe8115…
05-11 09:01:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	42	64¢	$27	0x67cfdf…
05-11 09:00:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x784935…
05-11 09:00:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	181	55¢	$100	0x0dd583…
05-11 09:00:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	180	55¢	$100	0xe7a8c9…
05-11 09:00:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x437d19…
05-11 09:00:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x66c055…
05-11 09:00:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	1,505	99¢	$1,490	0x5d775f…
05-11 08:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x141911…
05-11 08:57:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0xa837fd…
05-11 08:57:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x78fac6…
05-11 08:55:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x88356c…
05-11 08:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	193	52¢	$100	0x5cac53…
05-11 08:55:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	191	52¢	$100	0x10fe77…
05-11 08:55:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0xbad5c5…
05-11 08:55:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	191	52¢	$100	0x0abd90…
05-11 08:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x1f50b2…
05-11 08:55:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x103a25…
05-11 08:54:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	263	10¢	$25	0xf54a4d…
05-11 08:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x739e63…
05-11 08:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x774434…
05-11 08:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xbb858d…
05-11 08:49:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xa57f94…
05-11 08:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0xcc0ddf…
05-11 08:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x788804…
05-11 08:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x31555e…
05-11 08:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x138882…
05-11 08:44:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	497	99¢	$492	0xd9d0e6…
05-11 08:41:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0xd54973…
05-11 08:41:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0xbe6087…
05-11 08:41:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xbc3e71…
05-11 08:41:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xc0d05e…
05-11 08:41:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x601829…
05-11 08:41:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x11b254…
05-11 08:36:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	180	73¢	$131	0x6f02b1…
05-11 08:36:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	121	73¢	$88	0x0ab562…
05-11 08:36:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	121	71¢	$85	0xef4ca1…
05-11 08:36:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	48	73¢	$35	0xe91f42…
05-11 08:36:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xe5c9fe…
05-11 08:31:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	146	76¢	$111	0x745a40…
05-11 08:30:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	146	68¢	$100	0x7078ab…
05-11 08:27:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	370	27¢	$100	0x49f277…
05-11 08:26:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	106	57¢	$61	0xc8d0a3…
05-11 08:25:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0xc9c827…
05-11 08:25:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0x5ab4d7…
05-11 08:23:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	167	14¢	$23	0x4da953…
05-11 08:23:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	167	15¢	$25	0xab40b2…
05-11 08:21:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	22	29¢	$6	0x66dbd7…