Leafy-Recollection — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$357

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

76.9%

Resolved

146

Trades

271

lifetime

Volume

$7.72K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 09-06 20:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Other

61% 63% -$119

Politics

25% 58% -$91

Sports

15% 60% -$144

Crypto

0% 25% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes		+357	$25	1¢	$5	-$20	09-01 13:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	5	$516	359	244	+115	No	+$47	06-20 12:00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	3	$414	255	255	+0	open	—	09-01 13:29
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	3	$331	168	168	+0	No	+$3	08-26 20:54
highest temperature in moscow on april 18 2026 11c	8	$323	186	186	+0	No	-$45	04-18 08:04
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	5	$318	200	200	+0	open	—	09-06 20:13
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	3	$273	145	145	+0	No	+$7	04-13 10:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	2	$241	135	135	+0	Yes	+$3	06-15 13:35
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	3	$212	108	108	+0	No	+$2	06-15 11:58
highest temperature in moscow on april 17 2026 10c	1	$197	199	0	+199	No	+$2	04-17 07:42
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	2	$196	205	0	+205	No	+$9	04-03 09:59
highest temperature in moscow on april 15 2026 11c	9	$186	204	0	+204	No	+$18	04-14 18:55
ufc pau2 aza 2026 04 11	2	$184	285	0	+285	Paulo Costa	-$184	04-09 06:35
Kash Patel out by April 30?	2	$181	103	103	+0	No	+$4	04-13 09:35
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$177	100	100	+0	No	+$23	07-18 04:33
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	3	$159	104	104	+0	No	+$9	04-08 13:24
highest temperature in moscow on april 14 2026 8c	1	$140	153	0	+153	No	+$13	04-13 10:12
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	3	$140	130	22	+107	No	+$9	03-27 22:27
highest temperature in moscow on april 19 2026 4c	1	$134	148	0	+148	Yes	-$134	04-18 08:01
highest temperature in moscow on april 18 2026 10c	4	$128	115	107	+9	Yes	-$75	04-18 08:12
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$123	113	113	+0	No	+$6	04-10 09:58
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	2	$114	64	64	+0	No	+$14	06-07 12:18
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	2	$113	71	71	+0	No	+$13	09-02 13:16
rodrigo paz out as president of bolivia by june 30 2026	2	$104	55	55	+0	No	+$4	06-17 12:35
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	2	$100	62	62	+0	open	—	06-19 14:37
naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	1	$100	106	0	+106	No	+$6	03-28 09:12
highest temperature in moscow on april 16 2026 10c	3	$98	100	97	+3	No	+$21	04-16 13:27
highest temperature in moscow on april 14 2026 7c	3	$93	95	0	+95	No	+$2	04-13 16:38
highest temperature in moscow on april 13 2026 11corhigher	1	$93	95	0	+95	Yes	+$3	04-13 09:35
ufc cha1 max1 2026 03 07	2	$85	76	55	+20	Charles Oliveira	-$15	03-06 15:47
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	2	$85	100	100	+0	Yes	+$13	07-06 20:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-06 20:13:34	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	84¢	$52	0xc3815a…
09-04 11:59:39	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0x3927ad…
09-04 10:38:13	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	45¢	$3	0xe9b145…
09-02 13:16:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	SELL	71	88¢	$63	0xe70527…
09-01 13:30:16	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0x369255…
09-01 13:29:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	255	84¢	$214	0x9379a5…
09-01 13:28:42	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x251116…
08-30 21:51:52	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xc733fd…
08-30 21:51:34	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xdd6e77…
08-26 21:11:58	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	Yes	BUY	80	75¢	$60	0xdfc20a…
08-26 21:07:42	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x2165c1…
08-26 20:59:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 21 2026	No	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x566808…
08-26 20:54:45	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	No	SELL	168	100¢	$167	0xa46a7c…
08-09 08:18:46	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	65	98¢	$64	0x26bb76…
08-04 14:13:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0xc7637e…
08-04 14:12:53	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xd4981b…
08-01 04:31:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xed140f…
07-18 04:33:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xbb666a…
07-06 20:58:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	100	49¢	$49	0x786cd1…
06-20 12:00:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	65	91¢	$59	0xc4e456…
06-20 11:58:38	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	BUY	58	92¢	$54	0x71911d…
06-19 22:55:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xc2fa9d…
06-19 14:37:20	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	62	80¢	$50	0xab20cf…
06-19 13:22:35	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x7c3420…
06-19 13:15:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x6a24a0…
06-19 13:13:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	244	92¢	$224	0xc09b2a…
06-19 00:00:10	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	94	62¢	$58	0x9f8dcd…
06-17 12:35:44	rodrigo paz out as president of bolivia by june 30 2026	No	SELL	55	98¢	$54	0xefec5f…
06-17 12:31:58	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0xb40882…
06-16 21:04:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x6f110c…
06-15 13:35:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	135	90¢	$122	0xa67120…
06-15 12:00:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	144	73¢	$105	0xd79380…
06-15 11:58:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	108	99¢	$107	0xe55f36…
06-15 11:58:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	135	88¢	$119	0xe3cb60…
06-15 11:56:19	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	139	84¢	$116	0xc5882b…
06-09 22:38:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	57	97¢	$55	0x8b2532…
06-09 00:21:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x432188…
06-07 14:21:51	ufc ste6 die4 2026 06 14	Diego Lopes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x2769a1…
06-07 14:21:48	ufc mic12 mau4 2026 06 14	Michael Chandler	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xc6c0f3…
06-07 14:21:13	ufc mic12 mau4 2026 06 14	Michael Chandler	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x6768f0…
06-07 14:20:48	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Alex Pereira	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x35bc3e…
06-07 14:20:10	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Ilia Topuria	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x54a548…
06-07 12:20:34	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0xf3d1d9…
06-07 12:18:30	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	64	99¢	$64	0xc22018…
06-07 06:30:40	rodrigo paz out as president of bolivia by june 30 2026	No	BUY	55	90¢	$50	0x64a440…
06-02 12:15:10	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x65bb7f…
06-02 12:14:04	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x31fb0c…
06-02 12:09:54	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x328e84…
05-05 19:41:06	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 6?	Yes	BUY	19	7¢	$1	0xf5a8da…
05-05 05:47:14	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 5?	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0xfd471f…
05-04 17:14:28	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 5?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x4f8450…
05-03 10:27:44	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 4?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x5d0eca…
05-02 07:52:22	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 3?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x180cf2…
05-01 22:19:14	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 3?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x699c4c…
05-01 22:18:20	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 2?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x65d12e…
05-01 09:39:06	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 2?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x9413d9…
05-01 09:33:40	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 2?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0xf0ea5f…
05-01 09:23:50	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 2?	Yes	BUY	36	2¢	$1	0x48e865…
05-01 09:01:54	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 2?	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0xfacc44…
05-01 08:15:36	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 2?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0xec70b7…
04-30 16:19:32	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 1?	Yes	SELL	60	19¢	$11	0xa467f4…
04-30 14:12:14	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	0	15¢	$0	0x992582…
04-30 12:58:46	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	29	15¢	$4	0x385f6f…
04-30 12:56:04	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xdb50d3…
04-30 12:54:48	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xce58ef…
04-30 12:53:54	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xd40ab4…
04-30 12:38:28	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0xf03ec0…
04-30 12:38:28	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x920083…
04-30 12:38:20	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x1476ac…
04-29 23:02:08	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 30?	Yes	SELL	50	19¢	$10	0x66c523…
04-29 16:32:42	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 30?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x890b4e…
04-29 07:34:02	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on April 29?	Yes	SELL	60	10¢	$6	0xe1c419…
04-28 16:04:32	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0x9bffc5…
04-28 15:49:08	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on April 28?	No	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0x08f533…
04-27 15:02:52	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on April 28?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xdd9354…
04-27 11:20:04	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xdcd41d…
04-27 11:19:50	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0xaa28bc…
04-27 11:19:50	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x219e6d…
04-27 11:19:50	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x05a233…
04-27 11:19:44	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x4eb4c9…
04-27 11:19:18	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	16	27¢	$4	0x85b690…
04-26 19:09:52	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	150	4¢	$6	0x14232c…
04-26 09:04:52	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x9f69f3…
04-26 09:04:52	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	0	25¢	$0	0x9b01d9…
04-26 09:04:44	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xae282f…
04-26 09:04:34	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x1dcf49…
04-26 09:02:22	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0x8eb87f…
04-26 06:36:42	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xe519b4…
04-26 05:14:10	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0x6b187f…
04-26 05:00:22	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0xdf693b…
04-25 13:57:20	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 25?	Yes	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0x6d6503…
04-25 13:50:10	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 25?	Yes	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0xaf0598…
04-25 13:50:08	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 25?	Yes	SELL	72	9¢	$6	0x25253a…
04-25 10:49:40	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 25?	No	BUY	52	60¢	$31	0x2df1be…
04-25 10:40:44	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 25?	No	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xfd60b4…
04-25 10:39:44	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	66	8¢	$5	0x39af55…
04-25 10:39:30	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0xa560ad…
04-24 11:42:44	highest temperature in moscow on april 24 2026 4c	No	BUY	26	86¢	$22	0xb00331…
04-23 13:19:14	UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, Main Card)	Youssef Zalal	SELL	19	51¢	$9	0x2e4592…
04-23 10:02:14	UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, Main Card)	Youssef Zalal	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x164cf5…