Irritating-Transparency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

59.5%

Resolved

Trades

1,176

lifetime

Volume

$9.10K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-23

last 06-10 13:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

38% 50% +$23

Politics

27% 0% $-37

Crypto

21% — —

Tech

7% — —

Sports

7% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 104 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No		+20	$7	24¢	$5	$-2	05-31 12:21
Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes		+5	$2	47¢	$2	$-0	06-02 03:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	66	$1.2K	1,623	1,177	+446	open	—	05-26 15:01
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	22	$602	509	508	+1	open	—	05-25 15:13
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	71	$447	559	273	+286	open	—	06-01 00:07
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	51	$395	449	248	+200	open	—	05-25 18:29
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	19	$352	450	450	+0	open	—	05-24 02:29
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	35	$213	225	204	+20	open	—	05-14 08:42
Will Hannover 96 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?	10	$200	140	140	+0	open	—	05-17 06:40
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	23	$194	238	148	+91	open	—	06-09 13:47
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 75B in Q1?	29	$138	227	188	+39	open	—	05-20 17:13
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?	14	$137	148	148	+0	open	—	05-15 03:23
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	14	$129	141	106	+34	open	—	05-16 22:14
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	24	$113	144	106	+38	open	—	05-12 09:47
Labour leadership election scheduled by May 31?	14	$108	180	180	+0	open	—	05-14 06:56
will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the us by june 30 2026	10	$107	96	76	+20	open	—	06-05 15:30
Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?	10	$98	87	59	+29	open	—	05-14 08:53
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?	3	$96	40	80	-40	open	—	05-31 13:19
will tabi launch a token by june 30 2027	8	$91	100	49	+51	open	—	06-05 08:35
Enhanced Games: Men’s 50m Butterfly World Record Broken?	7	$91	132	132	+0	open	—	05-24 14:08
will noble launch a token by june 30 2027	9	$86	85	71	+14	open	—	06-09 14:56
will spark launch a token by december 31 2027	9	$82	119	79	+40	open	—	06-10 13:40
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?	2	$82	48	48	+0	open	—	05-28 13:23
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	24	$81	126	126	+0	open	—	05-21 12:48
FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301?	9	$80	96	72	+24	open	—	05-22 09:42
will curvance launch a token by december 31 2026	8	$80	80	80	+0	open	—	06-08 16:28
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	8	$78	85	41	+44	open	—	06-02 18:11
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?	17	$76	103	45	+59	open	—	05-13 17:52
will city protocol launch a token by december 31 2026	11	$75	106	86	+20	open	—	06-10 09:32
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	6	$69	76	40	+36	open	—	05-20 07:36
will yeet launch a token by december 31 2026	6	$69	60	60	+0	open	—	06-09 02:26
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31?	21	$68	125	64	+61	open	—	06-02 16:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 13:40:57	will spark launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	39	28¢	$11	0x1d9ba9…
06-10 13:08:30	will antonio gracias be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212487	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x0e0622…
06-10 12:29:46	will brian bjelde be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212485	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x3ef3ef…
06-10 12:12:40	will oro launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x89d804…
06-10 12:11:16	will brian bjelde be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212485	Yes	SELL	4	43¢	$2	0xbead70…
06-10 12:07:48	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x4d4ded…
06-10 12:03:33	will spark launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x24e9bf…
06-10 12:03:21	will spark launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x96c167…
06-10 12:00:06	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x9298ec…
06-10 11:59:55	will brian bjelde be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212485	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xba84d6…
06-10 11:57:22	will oro launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x6f6766…
06-10 11:56:30	will oro launch a token by december 31 2027	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x4a50b7…
06-10 11:56:27	will oro launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x5f0eb9…
06-10 09:32:36	will city protocol launch a token by december 31 2026	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xfd1f8c…
06-10 08:26:55	will spark launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x7655ff…
06-10 08:25:57	will spark launch a token by december 31 2027	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xed1f03…
06-10 08:25:13	will spark launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xe12770…
06-10 07:40:51	will spark launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xec2914…
06-10 07:18:15	will spark launch a token by december 31 2027	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x7d0a67…
06-10 07:16:09	will spark launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	19	37¢	$7	0xb458df…
06-10 06:35:15	Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x3e88c1…
06-10 06:32:00	Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xe75724…
06-10 06:17:18	will christian pulisic score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0x769bd7…
06-10 06:10:40	City Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x169b3a…
06-10 05:51:16	will x a xii be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212476	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x6b38f6…
06-10 05:30:48	City Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x60bf81…
06-10 05:19:07	will noble launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x237e7d…
06-10 04:45:13	will x a xii be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212476	No	SELL	10	66¢	$7	0x41c284…
06-10 04:02:16	will x a xii be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212476	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xa2cf3c…
06-10 03:28:22	will x a xii be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212476	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xb0422e…
06-10 03:25:40	will x a xii be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212476	Yes	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0xc3c184…
06-10 03:23:57	will x a xii be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212476	Yes	SELL	6	38¢	$2	0x1804c1…
06-10 03:22:58	will x a xii be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212476	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xfed0f7…
06-10 02:49:49	will mark juncosa be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212484	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0xc85392…
06-10 02:43:48	will mark juncosa be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212484	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xddff47…
06-10 02:23:55	will scott mctominay score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0xbc46a6…
06-10 00:18:39	will weston mckennie score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xa9e7b2…
06-10 00:15:39	will weston mckennie score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x63bebd…
06-09 21:08:10	will noble launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x2dcbb3…
06-09 19:39:10	will weston mckennie score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x990914…
06-09 17:42:52	spacex ipo officially added to sp 500 in 2026 20260608202834697	Yes	SELL	14	11¢	$2	0x335928…
06-09 16:52:37	spacex ipo officially added to sp 500 in 2026 20260608202834697	Yes	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0x575ef1…
06-09 16:50:42	spacex ipo officially added to sp 500 in 2026 20260608202834697	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x9ad790…
06-09 16:17:06	spacex ipo officially added to sp 500 in 2026 20260608202834697	Yes	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0xa74e87…
06-09 15:57:31	spacex ipo officially added to sp 500 in 2026 20260608202834697	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x8d1cda…
06-09 15:10:55	will scott mctominay score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x667f24…
06-09 14:56:46	will noble launch a token by june 30 2027	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x9b3021…
06-09 14:25:25	will noble launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	SELL	11	74¢	$8	0xe21f72…
06-09 13:47:30	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	SELL	40	37¢	$15	0x537a7b…
06-09 13:18:58	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x8478fe…
06-09 13:05:01	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x0afedb…
06-09 11:50:33	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	SELL	22	34¢	$7	0x36087a…
06-09 11:48:42	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	13	55¢	$7	0x0d99ca…
06-09 11:48:39	will city protocol launch a token by december 31 2026	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x0ec70d…
06-09 11:47:39	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xb4e162…
06-09 11:32:37	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x687f17…
06-09 11:25:00	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x59cbee…
06-09 11:24:58	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xb4e5fc…
06-09 11:22:04	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x31f1a3…
06-09 10:55:06	will city protocol launch a token by december 31 2026	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xa2c0d2…
06-09 10:49:57	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0xd1c01c…
06-09 10:49:57	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xa1eb4f…
06-09 10:49:55	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0x0b5dbb…
06-09 10:37:42	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xce0637…
06-09 10:37:15	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x4979d7…
06-09 10:36:18	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xefb516…
06-09 10:33:25	will bulk launch a token by june 30 2027	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x9f4001…
06-09 10:31:25	will bulk launch a token by june 30 2027	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x1dc096…
06-09 10:21:34	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0xa8ddec…
06-09 10:20:03	will bulk launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	9	28¢	$3	0xbb632b…
06-09 09:53:54	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x4fcc1a…
06-09 09:30:57	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	SELL	16	65¢	$10	0x0aaceb…
06-09 09:14:22	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	No	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x9ae7c8…
06-09 07:57:19	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xd21431…
06-09 07:53:36	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x0daff8…
06-09 06:12:13	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x085aa3…
06-09 06:10:22	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	SELL	4	67¢	$3	0x832d4d…
06-09 06:09:30	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xf0f28d…
06-09 03:27:58	will noble launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x30379a…
06-09 02:26:58	will yeet launch a token by december 31 2026	No	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x4d7f2a…
06-09 02:06:45	will yeet launch a token by december 31 2026	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x7602ca…
06-09 01:58:21	will canvas valuation hit high 45b by june 30	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x9bf29c…
06-09 01:38:13	will yeet launch a token by december 31 2026	No	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0xbc9087…
06-09 00:49:10	will yeet launch a token by december 31 2026	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x05f72a…
06-08 23:15:06	will city protocol launch a token by june 30 2027	No	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x7b5ca8…
06-08 16:28:06	will curvance launch a token by december 31 2026	No	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x55151b…
06-08 16:20:09	ostium fdv above 200m one day after launch	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x837ff6…
06-08 15:51:03	will curvance launch a token by december 31 2026	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xdc6818…
06-08 11:17:48	will city protocol launch a token by june 30 2027	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x4467f9…
06-08 07:04:04	will curvance launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x6d4859…
06-08 07:03:15	will curvance launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x75cae8…
06-08 06:51:43	will yeet launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x5ff4e1…
06-08 06:46:21	will yeet launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x481f50…
06-08 06:18:58	will micron q3 dram revenue be above 26b	Yes	SELL	8	85¢	$7	0xcc3498…
06-08 04:19:13	will databricks valuation hit low 145b by june 30	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0xdbbbd7…
06-08 04:19:12	will databricks valuation hit low 145b by june 30	Yes	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0x869b1a…
06-08 04:19:10	will databricks valuation hit low 145b by june 30	Yes	SELL	25	18¢	$4	0xdbf03e…
06-08 04:19:10	will databricks valuation hit low 145b by june 30	Yes	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0x71610f…
06-08 03:17:42	will micron q3 dram revenue be above 26b	Yes	SELL	12	86¢	$11	0xc0b1db…
06-08 03:16:04	will micron q3 dram revenue be above 26b	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x057135…