Hard-To-Find-Indication — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$39.3K

Unrealized P&L

-$353

Hit rate

26.6%

Resolved

1,779

Trades

6,829

lifetime

Volume

$146.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$20

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 10-31 17:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 154 days

Categories

Other

71% 53% -$14,510

Politics

24% 44% -$23,432

Sports

2% 48% -$2,031

Crypto

1% 40% +$692

Tech

1% 83% +$61

Pop-Culture

0% 33% -$78

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	-9	-$4	82¢	$-7	-$3	05-18 20:21
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	-8	-$4	91¢	$-7	-$3	05-18 20:21
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	-10	-$8	57¢	$-5	+$3	05-18 20:19
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+0	$0	56¢	$0	$0	05-29 16:59
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	+0	$350	1¢	$0	-$350	06-05 21:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$25.5K	86,710	28,564	+58,146	No	-$11,810	01-17 15:19
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	5	$22.6K	102,350	0	+102,350	No	-$22,560	01-14 15:43
Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	76	$6.2K	11,251	11,251	+0	open	—	06-05 21:37
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	30	$2.9K	4,545	4,558	-13	No	-$115	06-01 09:53
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27?	67	$2.8K	2,965	2,408	+557	Up	+$54	05-27 15:19
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	31	$2.5K	3,064	3,064	+0	open	—	06-05 21:38
Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	9	$2.1K	6,993	0	+6,993	open	—	10-31 17:44
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$1.4K	1,705	1,705	+0	Yes	+$13	06-05 21:38
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	7	$1.4K	839	839	+0	open	—	06-05 21:38
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	19	$1.4K	4,744	4,744	+0	open	—	06-05 21:37
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	44	$1.3K	2,381	2,389	-8	No	-$68	06-03 21:39
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	9	$1.1K	1,299	3,057	-1,758	Yes	+$360	05-31 21:56
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$1000	18,353	0	+18,353	No	-$1,000	06-26 04:16
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	13	$999	847	847	+0	open	—	05-29 16:59
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$997	17,946	0	+17,946	No	-$997	06-25 21:21
jd vance out as vp by december 31	5	$971	5,556	5,556	+0	open	—	06-05 21:37
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	3	$964	1,923	1,928	-5	Yes	-$36	05-29 01:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	5	$940	714	714	+0	No	-$60	05-27 08:23
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?	14	$939	648	648	+0	open	—	05-31 18:08
will christopher nolan be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	2	$808	422	422	+0	open	—	10-17 19:40
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	2	$777	312	1,250	-938	No	-$510	05-21 13:42
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in May?	5	$698	1,143	1,429	-286	No	-$102	05-21 17:44
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	8	$591	650	650	+0	No	-$18	06-26 07:25
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 6?	52	$561	644	599	+45	No	-$32	07-06 07:27
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	17	$515	685	685	+0	open	—	06-01 06:05
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	4	$500	849	0	+849	Yes	+$349	06-01 06:57
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 6?	20	$498	470	470	+0	Yes	+$0	07-06 00:59
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	5	$461	353	353	+0	open	—	05-26 13:27
wti up or down on july 2 2026	4	$457	486	486	+0	Up	-$3	07-02 06:32
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	2	$457	753	753	+0	No	+$51	06-05 21:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 17:44:04	Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	92	19¢	$18	0x11d368…
10-31 17:43:22	Will You Can See Everything win Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	240	20¢	$48	0xf173fc…
10-30 16:17:45	Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	37	20¢	$7	0x77c900…
10-30 16:17:13	Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	145	20¢	$29	0x68363f…
10-30 16:16:43	Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	224	19¢	$44	0x6d5c6b…
10-30 13:58:19	Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	29	18¢	$5	0x3dd0e6…
10-26 02:43:45	Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	1,422	32¢	$452	0x2ad885…
10-26 02:43:36	Will You Can See Everything win Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	40	24¢	$10	0xb7ff29…
10-25 20:53:27	Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	422	29¢	$124	0xb1e633…
10-24 16:43:33	Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	1,303	32¢	$414	0x49534c…
10-24 15:13:06	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	Yes	BUY	290	27¢	$77	0x84cc21…
10-23 21:48:11	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	96	80¢	$77	0x7c3529…
10-23 21:16:42	Will You Can See Everything win Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	213	14¢	$30	0x5dad6a…
10-23 21:16:30	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	38	77¢	$29	0x4513b4…
10-23 19:18:05	Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	3,319	29¢	$978	0x63ff19…
10-23 19:18:02	Will You Can See Everything win Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	84	19¢	$16	0x1de645…
10-17 20:28:56	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	40	69¢	$28	0x7753f3…
10-17 20:28:21	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	94	69¢	$65	0xbf2a3e…
10-17 19:49:17	Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	391	76¢	$297	0x2bb2b1…
10-17 19:40:32	will christopher nolan be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	422	93¢	$393	0x6c04a4…
10-17 19:40:15	will christopher nolan be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	422	98¢	$415	0xf5923e…
10-17 19:38:42	will nathan fielder be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x303ad1…
07-30 14:37:08	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in July 2026 be less than or equal to 1.1%?	Yes	SELL	54	0¢	$0	0xa8ee4f…
07-30 14:37:05	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in July?	Yes	SELL	44	1¢	$0	0x0fd845…
07-30 14:37:02	Will Miriam Shor – “Pluribus” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a drama series?	Yes	SELL	55	6¢	$3	0x828eb3…
07-30 14:37:00	Will Core CPI YoY be 3.0% in July?	Yes	SELL	89	0¢	$0	0x136629…
07-30 14:36:56	Will Brittany Allen – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a drama series?	Yes	SELL	58	8¢	$5	0x3d5cd6…
07-30 14:36:53	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in July?	Yes	SELL	349	0¢	$1	0x2244a4…
07-30 14:36:50	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in July?	Yes	SELL	99	0¢	$0	0xe8ae79…
07-30 14:36:47	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in July?	Yes	SELL	141	1¢	$1	0x98bf11…
07-30 14:36:42	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.2% or less in July?	Yes	SELL	283	2¢	$6	0x5013e8…
07-29 17:18:39	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in July?	Yes	SELL	42	9¢	$4	0xf8ca55…
07-29 17:18:36	hood quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 29 2026 0pt43	No	SELL	67	2¢	$1	0x909b65…
07-29 17:04:08	Will “RuPaul’s Drag Race” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series?	Yes	SELL	26	1¢	$0	0x05cece…
07-29 17:04:00	Will Megan Stalter – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series?	Yes	SELL	28	0¢	$0	0xc84fd9…
07-29 17:03:57	Will Richard Jenkins – “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0xbf37c7…
07-29 17:03:51	Will Youn Yuh-jung – “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0xc6b052…
07-29 15:46:02	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the September decision?	Yes	SELL	30	15¢	$5	0xfb6ed2…
07-29 15:45:59	Will ISM Services PMI be at least 58.0 in July?	Yes	SELL	46	5¢	$2	0x2241ba…
07-29 15:43:45	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in July?	Yes	SELL	146	23¢	$34	0x4b5b7b…
07-29 15:43:42	Will Katherine LaNasa – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series?	No	SELL	58	26¢	$15	0x2ac36a…
07-29 15:43:30	Will “Survivor” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series?	Yes	SELL	70	28¢	$19	0xfee44a…
07-29 15:43:27	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	Yes	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0xcd96e9…
07-29 15:43:24	Will Linda Cardellini – “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?	No	SELL	114	34¢	$39	0x1c6d3d…
07-29 15:43:20	bbby quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 27 2026 neg0pt26	No	SELL	29	37¢	$11	0x31fedf…
07-29 15:43:15	Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 20m?	Yes	SELL	17	10¢	$2	0x5bdc4b…
07-29 15:43:14	Will Oscar Isaac – “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?	No	SELL	72	39¢	$28	0xb501ac…
07-29 15:43:09	Will “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?	Yes	SELL	43	41¢	$17	0xa60a8e…
07-29 15:43:06	Will Harrison Ford – “Shrinking” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series?	Yes	SELL	92	43¢	$39	0x478606…
07-29 15:42:36	Will Shailene Woodley – “Paradise” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a drama series?	Yes	SELL	73	48¢	$35	0x545e1d…
07-29 15:42:33	Will “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series?	Yes	SELL	130	51¢	$66	0x0716f4…
07-29 15:42:29	mgm quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 0pt6	Yes	SELL	6	53¢	$3	0x8f5e12…
07-29 15:42:27	Will Kaitlin Olson – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series?	No	SELL	31	56¢	$17	0xe9b53b…
07-28 10:55:10	Coca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 5%-6.5%?	Yes	SELL	24	43¢	$10	0xb7caa7…
07-28 06:19:58	Coca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 5%-6.5%?	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x1b3cb2…
07-27 21:59:30	Coca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 8%+?	Yes	SELL	168	2¢	$4	0xa7bd77…
07-26 13:23:58	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 27?	No	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0xadff9b…
07-26 10:54:45	sono quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 0pt2	Yes	SELL	31	49¢	$15	0x6458e5…
07-26 04:15:48	Will Rob Reiner – “The Bear” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series?	No	SELL	12	62¢	$8	0xe93b44…
07-26 00:30:07	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 26?	No	BUY	21	63¢	$13	0x26e384…
07-26 00:11:36	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 26?	No	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x1a0d88…
07-26 00:09:55	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 26?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x970dab…
07-25 23:49:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 26?	No	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x405a68…
07-25 22:04:12	Will Oscar Isaac – “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?	No	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0x103458…
07-25 17:04:34	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on July 27?	Yes	SELL	207	30¢	$63	0xa877b1…
07-25 17:03:03	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?	No	SELL	30	34¢	$10	0x957c0b…
07-25 17:03:00	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	194	12¢	$24	0xd1a4c8…
07-25 17:02:58	Will David Harbour – “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?	No	SELL	124	33¢	$41	0x537bcf…
07-25 17:02:57	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 27?	No	SELL	41	60¢	$25	0x9f2948…
07-25 17:02:55	Will “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series?	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xe06b63…
07-25 17:02:54	Will “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?	No	SELL	47	58¢	$27	0x3fb70f…
07-25 17:02:52	Will Betty Gilpin – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series?	Yes	SELL	79	43¢	$34	0xad640d…
07-25 17:02:52	Will “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?	No	SELL	73	72¢	$53	0x12ca63…
07-25 16:59:07	Will Shailene Woodley – “Paradise” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a drama series?	Yes	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0x2f962e…
07-25 16:55:45	sbux quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 28 2026 0pt69	No	SELL	56	30¢	$17	0x169893…
07-25 16:05:15	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 26?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xd28de3…
07-25 16:03:09	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 26?	No	BUY	1	64¢	$0	0x85516e…
07-25 15:56:55	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 27?	No	BUY	50	63¢	$31	0xc0c0ff…
07-25 15:50:40	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be below 49.0 in July?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x55f565…
07-25 15:48:07	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 26?	No	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x51ef47…
07-25 14:18:58	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 27?	No	BUY	139	54¢	$75	0x59384d…
07-25 12:55:33	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 27?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x330007…
07-25 10:49:00	grmn quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 2pt29	No	SELL	29	28¢	$8	0x88d7f8…
07-25 10:47:19	grmn quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 2pt29	No	SELL	23	28¢	$6	0xa39f46…
07-25 10:22:13	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 27?	No	BUY	24	63¢	$15	0xed2630…
07-25 10:08:57	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 27?	No	BUY	14	63¢	$9	0xf36a8b…
07-25 10:08:57	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 27?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x93f398…
07-25 10:01:21	Will “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?	Yes	BUY	37	42¢	$16	0xe1fcc6…
07-25 08:44:34	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x7144cc…
07-25 08:42:10	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x28aa2a…
07-25 08:38:37	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	12	29¢	$4	0x5fa5df…
07-25 08:38:33	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x173c88…
07-25 08:36:58	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on July 27?	No	BUY	119	63¢	$75	0x2e000e…
07-25 08:27:54	Will “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?	Yes	SELL	14	42¢	$6	0xfa32d6…
07-25 08:27:46	Will Linda Cardellini – “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?	No	BUY	39	33¢	$13	0x173061…
07-25 08:27:37	Will “The Traitors” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series?	Yes	SELL	30	58¢	$17	0x88ff78…
07-25 08:27:15	Will Linda Cardellini – “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?	No	SELL	39	33¢	$13	0xb1aa29…
07-25 08:26:36	Will Shailene Woodley – “Paradise” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a drama series?	Yes	SELL	26	49¢	$13	0x2536df…
07-25 08:26:24	Will Harrison Ford – “Shrinking” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series?	Yes	SELL	40	49¢	$19	0x809cac…
07-25 08:26:13	nvts quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 27 2026 neg0pt04	No	SELL	36	59¢	$21	0xacd532…