Baggy-Salsa — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

49.9%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

5,541 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$31

$18.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$25

10 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 11-11 19:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 117 days

Categories

Crypto

91% 54% -$215

Politics

4% 54% -$17

Other

4% 47% +$1

Tech

1% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 493 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+8	$5	70¢	$6	+$1	11-09 19:59
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+6	$4	80¢	$5	+$1	11-11 19:13
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	+4	$3	71¢	$3	$0	11-10 00:57
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+2	$2	94¢	$2	+$0	11-10 01:41
Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	+2	$2	92¢	$2	+$0	11-11 07:51
Will Gemini Krypton debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	+2	$2	85¢	$2	+$0	11-11 05:47
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	+2	$2	82¢	$2	+$0	11-11 19:08
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	+2	$2	80¢	$2	$0	11-11 07:17
Will Gemini Krypton debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	+3	$2	50¢	$2	$0	11-11 23:47
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+5	$2	18¢	$1	-$1	11-11 19:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	14	$287	156	165	-8	No	-$6	05-23 23:10
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?	5	$114	78	78	+0	Yes	-$3	05-22 12:55
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	6	$103	54	54	+0	No	+$3	05-19 22:42
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	2	$98	50	50	+0	Yes	+$2	06-11 16:05
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	5	$93	50	50	+0	No	$0	05-22 12:55
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	8	$93	77	72	+4	No	-$11	11-09 20:51
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	6	$90	67	65	+2	No	+$12	11-09 20:47
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	4	$81	62	62	+0	No	+$9	05-19 22:42
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	8	$64	69	69	+0	No	-$5	05-23 13:47
Will Trump say "Space Force" during Coast Guard event?	10	$59	69	69	+0	Yes	+$3	05-20 16:41
next mythos class model released by august 31 2026	7	$58	60	60	+0	No	-$9	06-11 16:06
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	4	$54	40	40	+0	Yes	+$5	05-19 22:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-12 23:20 UTC	11	$53	50	25	+25	Up	-$3	07-12 23:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	2	$49	29	29	+0	Down	+$9	05-26 03:04
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-22 19:00 UTC	7	$45	69	31	+39	Up	-$7	08-22 19:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	20	$43	85	0	+85	Down	+$7	07-12 23:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-12 23:05 UTC	19	$43	76	0	+76	Down	-$13	07-12 23:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 01:15 UTC	19	$42	82	0	+82	Down	+$8	07-13 01:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 01:25 UTC	20	$40	79	0	+79	Down	+$10	07-13 01:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	2	$40	47	0	+47	No	+$7	05-19 23:51
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 26?	7	$39	40	40	+0	Yes	-$1	10-24 11:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 04:25 UTC	17	$39	77	0	+77	Up	+$4	07-13 04:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	20	$38	25	25	+0	No	-$2	05-23 17:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	15	$36	70	0	+70	Down	-$1	07-13 01:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 05:00 UTC	13	$35	60	0	+60	Up	-$5	07-13 05:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	6	$35	43	11	+32	Down	-$2	05-26 03:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-12 20:55 UTC	14	$34	65	0	+65	Down	+$1	07-12 20:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-12 21:45 UTC	14	$34	65	0	+65	Down	+$1	07-12 21:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-12 21:15 UTC	13	$33	65	0	+65	Down	-$8	07-12 21:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 02:10 UTC	13	$30	60	0	+60	Up	-$1	07-13 02:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-11 23:47:52	Will Gemini Krypton debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0x78c989…
11-11 19:13:39	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0xd5761e…
11-11 19:13:39	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0xafbcdf…
11-11 19:13:39	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x4206cd…
11-11 19:08:43	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	2	73¢	$2	0x3f4dd2…
11-11 19:08:25	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0xc2142f…
11-11 07:51:10	Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x83db5d…
11-11 07:17:24	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x1c67e2…
11-11 05:47:31	Will Gemini Krypton debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x6466b1…
11-10 01:41:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x5c51da…
11-10 00:57:57	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x42fc00…
11-10 00:56:19	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0xa55a86…
11-09 20:51:12	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xa496f6…
11-09 20:50:39	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x8c1c29…
11-09 20:47:31	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x43f72b…
11-09 20:45:12	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x143672…
11-09 19:59:40	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xa5abf1…
11-09 18:53:51	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x71519c…
11-09 18:53:40	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xc6e13e…
11-04 04:58:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x3f00ee…
11-03 14:32:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x346133…
11-01 03:15:06	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	25	77¢	$19	0x598e58…
11-01 03:14:58	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	14	77¢	$11	0x712996…
11-01 03:05:06	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	26	77¢	$20	0xcf011b…
10-30 01:11:31	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x7e0a39…
10-30 00:56:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x71808e…
10-30 00:11:19	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	93¢	$10	0x98071b…
10-29 23:56:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x898b59…
10-29 23:27:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x8817ed…
10-29 22:58:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xaf5ece…
10-29 22:41:16	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xc070c5…
10-29 22:12:19	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x83f222…
10-29 21:58:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x767262…
10-29 21:26:22	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xfa0bc9…
10-29 21:11:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xaa0e81…
10-29 17:11:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x85b261…
10-29 16:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xd4e13f…
10-29 14:58:10	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xcbf269…
10-29 13:42:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x425ad8…
10-29 11:12:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x7541ea…
10-29 07:57:28	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x6d1df7…
10-29 03:28:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x88a6da…
10-29 02:12:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x15efcd…
10-28 20:11:19	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xcaaee6…
10-28 18:41:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xefdd99…
10-28 18:28:31	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3b61c8…
10-28 17:56:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xefd5f8…
10-28 16:57:34	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb8a633…
10-28 14:42:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x67c827…
10-28 14:11:28	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x9005dc…
10-28 13:56:40	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc9a517…
10-28 11:56:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x3a9c7b…
10-28 08:26:34	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4716bc…
10-28 01:11:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xaba29e…
10-27 20:13:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe3e9ad…
10-27 16:29:03	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x781c84…
10-27 14:42:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x59c168…
10-27 13:41:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x7aac50…
10-27 13:11:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xba0a0b…
10-27 12:56:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xd811df…
10-27 10:57:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x4dd57d…
10-27 09:56:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xaad796…
10-27 07:53:47	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	15	58¢	$9	0xafae8d…
10-27 07:51:36	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	27¢	$3	0x3b7b87…
10-27 06:43:11	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0x9d7afd…
10-27 02:57:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x725c5a…
10-27 00:11:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x69ff42…
10-26 16:43:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4d76af…
10-26 16:12:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xeabad9…
10-26 14:57:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x3072cc…
10-26 14:41:24	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0xbe5442…
10-26 14:41:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xa2135b…
10-26 13:43:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xdbaff6…
10-26 11:11:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x13a6de…
10-26 10:26:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xf43118…
10-26 09:56:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x36cbb6…
10-26 06:56:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x38be11…
10-26 05:26:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x06c40b…
10-26 05:12:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xd1db6e…
10-26 04:52:00	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0x98502c…
10-26 04:40:50	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x832b10…
10-26 03:42:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xd66b7b…
10-26 02:41:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x1bd647…
10-26 02:26:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4d45da…
10-26 01:11:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xc8948c…
10-25 23:57:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x4018ff…
10-25 22:41:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x0f203b…
10-25 22:26:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xd81c9b…
10-25 12:56:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x177f5b…
10-25 09:24:50	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0x83508e…
10-25 08:26:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xf578b4…
10-24 17:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x34229e…
10-24 17:26:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xab5ce6…
10-24 15:27:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x588bac…
10-24 11:52:51	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0x5e268a…
10-24 11:52:50	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 26?	No	SELL	6	59¢	$3	0x11de55…
10-24 11:41:54	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 26?	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0xcce61f…
10-24 11:41:48	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x9fd849…
10-24 11:41:42	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xa02676…
10-24 11:41:38	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x680bad…