Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

53.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$99

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-07-23

last 10-21 07:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Other

84% 49% -$13

Politics

13% 75% +$5

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+3	$2	4¢	$0	-$1	07-26 13:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	07-23 13:43
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-13 19:54
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	+$0	08-03 19:36
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	09-15 16:15
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	09-20 11:50
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	+$0	08-01 00:19
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	08-26 08:12
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	08-01 23:48
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-11 13:10
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	08-05 11:42
will googl reach 385 by august 3 2026	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	08-04 03:40
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	08-18 20:21
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	08-06 23:49
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	08-13 09:17
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	08-02 19:22
plby quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 10 2026 0	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-09 07:59
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-20 03:31
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-05 19:45
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	08-06 15:47
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	+$4	08-02 10:43
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-03 03:25
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-01 15:47
will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-11 05:09
will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	08-03 11:25
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	08-05 11:44
Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-22 18:22
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	1	$2	4	+4	cancelled	+$0	07-31 16:19
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	1	$2	4	+4	cancelled	$0	07-28 00:11
will trump say melania during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255822	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	07-24 13:45
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	1	$2	4	+4	cancelled	$0	07-27 01:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 07:13:33	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x9c62dc…
10-17 10:54:15	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x385487…
10-17 02:35:26	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xc0cbdf…
10-16 17:52:20	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x25b421…
10-16 08:27:03	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xce63b0…
10-15 11:56:58	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15?	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x61f874…
10-13 22:30:21	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x7e9a46…
10-13 14:28:19	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x8286bb…
10-08 03:44:47	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x1a1095…
10-07 19:26:19	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x7d8b0e…
10-07 11:25:49	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7?	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x3ad274…
10-07 11:24:23	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x959893…
10-07 02:40:41	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x8f4f82…
10-06 18:40:32	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xbc9cb3…
10-04 10:23:59	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x2891f5…
10-04 01:54:35	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x03b215…
10-03 02:53:41	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x60782b…
10-02 18:19:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x9799ad…
10-02 09:35:41	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x0b6885…
10-02 01:34:12	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x95ebcd…
10-01 17:26:39	spy up or down on october 1 2026	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x258f6c…
09-26 06:46:50	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x811ece…
09-25 21:59:12	Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x83b868…
09-20 11:50:22	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x20d5fd…
09-20 03:31:27	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x07bcb2…
09-15 16:15:30	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x6604d6…
09-13 19:54:01	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x46dc5e…
09-09 23:27:49	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0xe6bea6…
08-26 08:12:46	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x594d67…
08-22 18:22:34	Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x72b4e8…
08-18 20:21:52	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x34c4a8…
08-13 09:17:31	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x9a11e8…
08-11 13:10:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x78b745…
08-11 05:09:42	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x1eea4d…
08-09 07:59:00	plby quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 10 2026 0	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xaa5622…
08-06 23:49:05	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x3f6741…
08-06 15:47:48	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xfc2d48…
08-05 19:45:54	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x9ae124…
08-05 11:44:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xf4c535…
08-05 11:42:08	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x8ec56a…
08-04 03:40:41	will googl reach 385 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x2afe62…
08-03 19:36:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x85bdf6…
08-03 11:25:48	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x0c8a2e…
08-03 03:25:36	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x491ee5…
08-02 19:22:21	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x8ed694…
08-02 10:43:17	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x71c007…
08-01 23:48:21	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xd67340…
08-01 15:47:54	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x6595e8…
08-01 00:19:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x1f5946…
07-31 16:19:47	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x9817a1…
07-31 08:11:06	another pandemic before gta vi	No	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x01e9a2…
07-29 22:56:36	Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	No	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x76b002…
07-29 11:42:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xfbce1b…
07-28 00:11:13	New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x27a369…
07-27 15:39:43	New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?	No	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x8a043e…
07-27 01:48:57	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xbe52a3…
07-26 13:48:51	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0x1cdeb1…
07-26 01:48:45	will trump say hell 7 times during michigan remarks 20260724162420354	Yes	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0xcded95…
07-25 13:46:01	will trump say oil or gas 10 times during michigan remarks 20260724162420353	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x795c5b…
07-25 01:45:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xe2542b…
07-24 13:45:03	will trump say melania during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255822	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xb465d2…
07-24 01:44:46	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?	No	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0x1aef9b…
07-23 13:43:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xb858de…
07-23 01:42:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0xba5d0c…