Stimulating-Gum — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$208

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

95.9%

Resolved

Trades

438

lifetime

Volume

$95.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$218

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 10-07 13:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Politics

62% 83% -$42

Sports

21% 100% +$47

Crypto

12% 100% +$42

Other

5% 66% -$254

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	+2	$2	97¢	$2	+$0	09-17 09:44
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+2	$2	94¢	$2	+$0	10-07 13:18
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+3	$1	29¢	$1	$0	10-07 13:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	172	$39.8K	21,123	20,143	+980	No	+$45	02-11 10:39
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	42	$19.8K	10,400	10,400	+0	Seahawks	+$47	02-09 02:57
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	20	$18.5K	10,640	7,871	+2,769	No	+$10	02-10 04:58
bitcoin above 72k on february 11	25	$5.2K	2,620	2,620	+0	No	+$10	02-11 06:34
bitcoin above 68k on february 8	33	$3.0K	1,600	1,457	+143	Yes	+$4	02-08 15:02
spx opens up or down on february 9 2026	2	$2.4K	0	4,822	-4,822	Down	-$24	02-08 09:15
lol tes we 2026 02 10	3	$800	500	500	+0	Top Esports	-$80	02-09 09:44
will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	4	$402	205	203	+2	No	+$1	02-21 05:43
will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	6	$398	202	202	+0	No	+$3	02-25 13:08
lol tes we 2026 02 10 game3	2	$372	200	200	+0	Top Esports	+$8	02-09 08:47
bitcoin up or down february 9 2am et	24	$357	400	400	+0	Down	+$5	02-09 07:54
lol ig1 nip 2026 02 10 game1	7	$305	200	200	+0	Invictus Gaming	-$19	02-09 11:46
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$210	211	0	+211	Yes	+$1	03-17 09:47
ethereum above 2400 on march 9	1	$202	202	0	+202	No	+$0	03-09 04:18
bitcoin above 62k on february 25	1	$200	200	0	+200	Yes	+$0	02-25 15:08
Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$200	200	0	+200	Yes	+$0	02-28 07:25
Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch?	2	$195	100	100	+0	No	+$5	01-23 11:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1	$122	122	0	+122	No	+$0	04-30 08:33
will wagner moura win best actor at the 98th academy awards	1	$121	128	0	+128	No	+$7	03-12 09:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$120	120	0	+120	No	+$0	05-23 05:02
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7?	3	$120	120	0	+120	Yes	+$0	05-07 15:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	1	$120	120	0	+120	No	+$0	05-13 05:26
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner	1	$120	120	0	+120	Hanwha Life Esports	+$0	05-10 11:42
wmb quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 10 2026 0pt57	1	$120	120	0	+120	No	+$0	02-10 13:29
lol gen g2 2026 03 21	1	$116	121	0	+121	G2 Esports	-$116	03-21 07:20
Sentio FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$115	115	0	+115	No	+$0	04-16 05:37
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	3	$109	110	0	+110	No	+$1	04-22 11:09
will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	1	$105	105	0	+105	No	+$0	01-30 10:21
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$105	105	0	+105	No	+$0	03-24 15:31
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$105	106	0	+106	Yes	-$105	04-04 12:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-07 13:18:53	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x28fb20…
10-07 13:18:41	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xe26484…
10-07 13:18:29	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xf0144f…
09-17 09:44:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa4bd45…
09-17 09:44:16	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xbcd17c…
09-17 09:43:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x599e84…
07-04 05:29:34	lol ly fur 2026 07 03 game3	FURIA Esports	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xb8c6b3…
07-04 03:10:50	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 4?	Yes	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x8edd08…
07-04 03:09:14	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 4?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x00647c…
07-03 06:08:31	lol g2 tes 2026 07 04 game1	G2 Esports	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0xfe8001…
07-03 06:08:26	lol g2 tes 2026 07 04 game1	G2 Esports	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0x8ab7b7…
07-02 02:21:32	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 2?	No	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x4c79dd…
06-29 05:50:43	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	23	20¢	$5	0xf9a450…
06-29 05:50:43	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	27	20¢	$5	0x24578d…
06-29 05:47:28	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 29?	Yes	SELL	30	48¢	$14	0x8a80ed…
06-29 05:47:19	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9a47e9…
06-29 05:47:19	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x66ad17…
06-29 05:47:19	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0x003355…
06-29 05:47:11	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0xf4d934…
06-29 05:27:25	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x864d33…
06-28 04:11:35	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	11	80¢	$9	0x94d31e…
06-28 04:11:32	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	19	80¢	$15	0xd25069…
06-27 06:30:55	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	24	81¢	$20	0xda8016…
06-26 04:14:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x1507cf…
06-26 04:14:40	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xbe1304…
06-26 03:40:38	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 26?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xbd730f…
06-25 09:59:37	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 26?	No	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0x9b339e…
06-25 08:39:55	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25?	Yes	SELL	40	94¢	$38	0xc3a7d7…
06-25 06:33:01	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	24	65¢	$16	0x29c88b…
06-25 06:31:37	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x431189…
06-25 06:31:34	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x592a8f…
06-25 05:04:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?	Yes	SELL	35	75¢	$26	0x7f166a…
06-25 05:02:31	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?	Yes	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xf4d54d…
06-25 04:16:29	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x3ad681…
06-25 04:16:28	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x07eab5…
06-25 04:15:25	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	12	65¢	$8	0xd851ee…
06-25 03:55:01	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0x036dd9…
06-25 03:54:38	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0xa3e308…
06-08 10:12:13	lol al blg 2026 06 08	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0xf5e2e4…
06-07 09:16:46	lol kt dk 2026 06 07	Dplus KIA	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x83eb8d…
05-23 05:04:09	LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xbb93db…
05-23 05:02:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x11c5ea…
05-13 05:26:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xa7357f…
05-13 05:15:19	LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Anyone's Legend	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x0a8d63…
05-10 11:42:26	LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x9be80d…
05-07 15:31:42	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x51de6a…
05-07 15:31:32	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0xce8a05…
05-07 15:31:21	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x54fe41…
04-30 08:33:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x5ae8a9…
04-22 11:09:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	73	99¢	$73	0xced41a…
04-22 11:09:08	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0xc14913…
04-22 11:08:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xabb432…
04-22 11:07:24	lol hle1 ns 2026 04 22 game2	Nongshim Red Force	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x87d49c…
04-16 05:37:38	Sentio FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0x88515a…
04-04 12:03:53	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	106	99¢	$105	0x91607e…
03-29 14:07:20	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	105	98¢	$103	0x988b9d…
03-24 15:31:03	Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x469bfd…
03-21 07:20:49	lol gen g2 2026 03 21	Gen.G	BUY	121	96¢	$116	0xc17bcf…
03-17 09:47:49	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	210	100¢	$209	0x38b05d…
03-12 09:03:13	will wagner moura win best actor at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	128	95¢	$121	0xff2ee9…
03-09 04:18:21	ethereum above 2400 on march 9	No	BUY	202	100¢	$202	0xdb0fd1…
03-04 10:47:25	bitcoin above 58k on march 4	Yes	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x0dfc91…
03-04 05:24:51	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	No	BUY	106	97¢	$103	0x29d11a…
02-28 07:25:15	Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xd55a48…
02-25 15:08:14	bitcoin above 62k on february 25	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xfbd86b…
02-25 13:11:14	lol jdg al 2026 02 26	Anyone's Legend	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x781079…
02-25 13:08:04	will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	No	SELL	202	99¢	$201	0xab005a…
02-21 05:54:54	will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	No	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0xc525e6…
02-21 05:48:36	will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	No	BUY	52	98¢	$51	0x753048…
02-21 05:47:54	will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	No	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0x655159…
02-21 05:47:40	will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	No	BUY	53	98¢	$52	0xb32bfd…
02-21 05:46:30	will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xa122de…
02-21 05:43:52	will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xb647fd…
02-17 10:46:17	will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xf77682…
02-17 10:46:09	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0fed9b…
02-17 07:31:41	will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	No	SELL	129	99¢	$127	0x66516f…
02-16 23:46:13	will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	No	SELL	74	99¢	$73	0x72b96a…
02-11 11:19:27	us strikes iran by february 11 2026 664	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3dfc59…
02-11 11:17:55	will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	No	BUY	203	98¢	$199	0x1bf30a…
02-11 10:39:19	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	1,045	96¢	$1,007	0xb90cea…
02-11 10:36:25	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	47	96¢	$45	0x1ef367…
02-11 10:35:41	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	38	96¢	$37	0xa84e3b…
02-11 09:57:05	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	13	96¢	$13	0x2c48fa…
02-11 09:56:51	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	400	96¢	$385	0x379be0…
02-11 09:56:27	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	400	96¢	$385	0x811770…
02-11 09:56:01	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	400	96¢	$385	0xa76bb0…
02-11 09:55:35	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	210	96¢	$203	0xd1a8df…
02-11 09:38:55	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	354	96¢	$341	0xa75fde…
02-11 09:38:27	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x24b438…
02-11 09:37:41	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0xf01c9c…
02-11 09:36:33	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	692	96¢	$666	0x16424d…
02-11 09:15:53	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x996668…
02-11 09:14:13	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0xfde7a6…
02-11 09:13:35	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	58	96¢	$56	0x3c84e4…
02-11 09:11:27	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xed56a4…
02-11 09:11:19	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xee4344…
02-11 09:11:19	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xe7be88…
02-11 09:11:09	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x1d96bf…
02-11 09:11:07	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x7561f1…
02-11 09:10:49	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x80ff4e…