Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$449

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

4.7%

Resolved

Trades

124

lifetime

Volume

$492

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-28 09:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Politics

54% 0% -$266

Other

45% 1% -$180

Crypto

0% 0% -$2

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No		+45	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	10-27 17:30
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	No		+60	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	10-27 17:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?	3	$58	31,333	0	+31,333	No	-$58	01-30 10:01
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	3	$30	3,988	0	+3,988	No	-$30	01-30 11:03
nuclear weapon detonation by march 31	2	$26	358	0	+358	No	-$26	03-01 09:00
israel strikes iran by january 13 2026	2	$24	641	0	+641	No	-$24	01-13 15:29
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	2	$23	95	53	+42	No	+$19	01-28 20:54
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	3	$20	6,667	0	+6,667	No	-$20	01-30 11:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1	$20	95	0	+95	No	-$20	01-13 15:23
israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	1	$20	111	0	+111	No	-$20	01-13 15:31
no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting	3	$18	2,074	0	+2,074	Yes	-$18	01-22 23:45
will khamenei leave iran by jan 16 974	2	$14	535	0	+535	No	-$14	01-13 15:28
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?	2	$12	8,000	0	+8,000	No	-$12	01-30 10:00
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	2	$12	384	0	+384	No	-$12	01-06 10:20
bank of japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	5	$11	909	0	+909	No	-$11	01-22 22:15
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	5	$10	2,258	0	+2,258	Yes	-$10	09-17 17:45
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?	1	$10	10,000	0	+10,000	No	-$10	01-30 09:50
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	1	$10	91	0	+91	No	-$10	01-13 15:26
will the us next strike iran on january 23 2026 et 724	1	$10	236	0	+236	No	-$10	01-22 23:49
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$10	143	0	+143	Yes	-$10	01-30 09:53
US strike on Cuba by January 31?	1	$10	278	0	+278	No	-$10	01-13 15:27
si hit 150 high jan 2026	1	$8	800	0	+800	No	-$8	01-04 14:19
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	1	$8	35	0	+35	No	-$8	01-13 07:15
bank of japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after march 2026 meeting	3	$7	215	0	+215	No	-$7	03-18 14:52
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	4	$6	882	0	+882	No	-$6	03-18 14:51
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$5	429	0	+429	No	-$5	01-28 16:39
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	1	$4	800	0	+800	No	-$4	01-30 10:08
will aave be accused of insider trading	1	$4	450	0	+450	No	-$4	02-25 12:25
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	3	$4	1,300	0	+1,300	No	-$4	03-16 07:14
will the us next strike iran on january 26 2026 et 241	1	$4	221	0	+221	No	-$4	01-22 23:51
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	1	$4	57	0	+57	No	-$4	01-11 12:13
will the ecb announce a 25 bps decrease at the february 2026 meeting	1	$4	149	0	+149	No	-$4	01-11 14:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 09:38:46	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x4c4c20…
10-27 17:32:26	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x799632…
10-27 17:32:05	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x96ed59…
10-27 17:30:08	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0xd25b82…
10-27 17:29:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x3d8865…
10-08 08:43:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x35d483…
09-17 17:45:30	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0x398dfe…
09-17 17:21:51	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0xa0b8a1…
09-16 21:44:48	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xfed900…
09-12 09:13:55	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0xce054d…
09-12 09:13:34	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0xb86b7f…
09-12 09:13:10	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc97299…
09-12 07:41:57	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x076834…
07-28 10:16:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x1c964e…
07-28 10:16:35	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x1d6990…
07-28 10:16:26	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x3a206c…
07-28 10:16:01	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	63	2¢	$1	0x875bbc…
06-17 04:54:23	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xa3d73e…
06-17 04:54:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xe970a0…
06-14 13:10:13	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	222	1¢	$2	0x613b11…
06-14 13:09:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	400	0¢	$2	0xf6384b…
03-18 14:52:35	bank of japan decreases interest rates after march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xbb56c0…
03-18 14:52:29	bank of japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x7050d1…
03-18 14:51:41	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb2719a…
03-18 14:51:29	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x08e04f…
03-18 14:51:05	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	111	2¢	$2	0x4839e5…
03-16 07:15:55	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x421114…
03-16 07:14:51	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc59ad1…
03-14 12:40:29	will bugonia win best original score at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x81f5fe…
03-14 12:40:07	will bugonia win best adapted screenplay at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	129	1¢	$1	0xe4d928…
03-14 12:39:41	will it was just an accident win best original screenplay at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0xf251d8…
03-14 12:39:03	will elio win best animated feature film at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	440	0¢	$1	0x1aa16b…
03-14 12:37:55	will emma stone win best actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x5f3752…
03-14 12:37:49	will renate reinsve win best actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	139	1¢	$1	0x3fbcd6…
03-14 12:37:35	will kate hudson win best actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	262	0¢	$1	0x1c70f0…
03-12 12:56:17	will hamnet win exactly 5 awards at the oscars	Yes	BUY	276	0¢	$1	0x7644a6…
03-12 12:54:59	will jessie buckley win best actress at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	69	3¢	$2	0xb553a3…
03-12 12:52:47	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x97cc4b…
03-12 12:52:27	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xfb04b1…
03-12 12:51:57	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	182	1¢	$2	0x9cba8b…
03-12 12:51:41	will the ecb announce no change at the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x401d10…
03-02 14:23:47	will the ecb announce an increase at the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	232	0¢	$1	0xb6fd0f…
03-02 13:56:59	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	71	3¢	$2	0xc1fd68…
03-02 13:55:11	will the ecb announce a 50 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x5f6442…
03-02 13:54:51	will the ecb announce a 25 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	286	1¢	$4	0x080655…
03-01 09:00:05	nuclear weapon detonation by march 31	Yes	BUY	288	7¢	$20	0xba79a4…
03-01 08:59:47	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x4f7241…
03-01 08:59:31	bank of japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0x4510d1…
03-01 08:59:11	bank of japan increases interest rates by 50 bps after march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xc0c897…
03-01 08:58:45	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0xb0e9df…
03-01 08:58:21	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	61	3¢	$2	0x785264…
03-01 08:58:13	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x027333…
03-01 08:44:13	nuclear weapon detonation by march 31	Yes	BUY	70	9¢	$6	0xe36382…
02-25 12:25:24	will hyperliquid be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	148	1¢	$2	0x6bf182…
02-25 12:25:08	will aave be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	450	1¢	$4	0x88785a…
02-25 12:24:58	will company n be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	250	1¢	$2	0x68942a…
02-14 09:18:59	will marty supreme win best cinematography at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	261	0¢	$1	0xd2ffc7…
02-14 09:15:43	will sweet dreams of joy viva verdi win best original song at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xf908e8…
02-14 09:09:07	will the secret agent win best picture at the 98th academy awards 938	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xcdea11…
02-14 09:08:29	will bugonia win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x80a9d4…
02-14 09:08:09	will sentimental value win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x780354…
02-14 09:07:53	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0xf205d1…
01-30 11:03:54	Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	1,553	1¢	$10	0xa0ded6…
01-30 11:03:20	Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	2,333	0¢	$7	0x5964ff…
01-30 10:48:32	Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	1,433	1¢	$10	0x94ff9e…
01-30 10:15:54	Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0xae16d2…
01-30 10:08:34	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	800	0¢	$4	0x10dc5d…
01-30 10:01:12	Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	8,000	0¢	$8	0x14c4a5…
01-30 10:00:22	Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	4,000	0¢	$4	0x565d35…
01-30 09:55:52	Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xc23fa3…
01-30 09:54:50	Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	3,333	0¢	$10	0xa4e82e…
01-30 09:54:24	Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	1,002	1¢	$10	0x387357…
01-30 09:53:56	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0xf1eb26…
01-30 09:50:52	Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x501b53…
01-30 09:50:32	Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x27239b…
01-29 20:12:36	Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	4,000	0¢	$8	0x59a6b9…
01-28 20:55:26	will gold gc hit high 5300 by end of january 386 158	No	BUY	400	0¢	$2	0x56274c…
01-28 20:54:36	si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	Yes	SELL	53	39¢	$21	0x8edfe9…
01-28 20:46:42	Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	13,333	0¢	$40	0x4b470e…
01-28 19:21:54	will powell say good afternoon during january press conference 696 565	No	BUY	178	2¢	$3	0x63a736…
01-28 16:45:08	will the us next strike iran on january 31 2026 et 836	Yes	BUY	45	4¢	$2	0x8f22b8…
01-28 16:43:18	will the us next strike iran on february 11 2026 et	Yes	BUY	171	1¢	$2	0x77c3cf…
01-28 16:42:38	will the us next strike iran on february 1 2026 et	Yes	BUY	96	3¢	$3	0x706f9a…
01-28 16:39:28	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xe9b653…
01-28 16:39:00	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x9d1042…
01-22 23:51:08	will the us next strike iran on january 26 2026 et 241	Yes	BUY	221	2¢	$4	0xba9e32…
01-22 23:49:08	will the us next strike iran on january 23 2026 et 724	Yes	BUY	236	4¢	$10	0xeda003…
01-22 23:45:04	no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	727	1¢	$8	0xc22215…
01-22 22:15:48	no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	291	1¢	$2	0xde7414…
01-22 22:15:16	bank of japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	307	1¢	$3	0xa0c893…
01-22 21:20:40	bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x7df045…
01-22 21:19:42	no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1,056	1¢	$8	0x8ba442…
01-22 21:19:06	bank of japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	194	1¢	$2	0x59dece…
01-13 15:31:07	israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	Yes	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0xc903c7…
01-13 15:29:33	israel strikes iran by january 13 2026	Yes	BUY	106	4¢	$4	0xb286eb…
01-13 15:28:51	will khamenei leave iran by jan 16 974	Yes	BUY	143	3¢	$4	0xb208d1…
01-13 15:27:53	US strike on Cuba by January 31?	Yes	BUY	278	4¢	$10	0x1031d9…
01-13 15:26:09	will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xd0e720…
01-13 15:25:43	will khamenei leave iran by jan 16 974	Yes	BUY	392	3¢	$10	0xcf2705…
01-13 15:23:51	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	Yes	BUY	95	21¢	$20	0x7790e8…