Arctic-Nonbeliever — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.60K

Unrealized P&L

-$15

Hit rate

53.3%

Resolved

345

Trades

17,533

lifetime

Volume

$88.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-05 13:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 61 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 46% -$1,045

Sports

5% 69% +$228

Other

4% 17% -$698

Politics

1% 67% -$81

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 66 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes		+622	$25	2¢	$10	-$15	09-23 08:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 62k on june 10	16	$3.1K	2,004	2,004	+0	Yes	+$417	06-10 13:37
bitcoin above 62k on june 4 2026	21	$2.5K	1,496	1,496	+0	Yes	+$388	06-04 15:00
will bitcoin reach 63k on june 10	7	$1.6K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	-$54	06-10 13:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 09:00 UTC	225	$968	1,085	663	+422	Down	-$150	01-05 09:14
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	4	$920	1,010	1,000	+10	No	-$170	01-22 12:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 10:00 UTC	254	$862	1,105	796	+309	Up	+$13	01-05 10:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-04 00:30 UTC	180	$832	825	735	+90	Up	+$104	01-04 00:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 08:45 UTC	205	$823	1,036	757	+278	Down	+$128	01-05 09:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-02 12:30 UTC	212	$791	864	732	+131	Up	-$10	01-02 12:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 00:45 UTC	145	$783	750	650	+100	Up	+$56	01-05 00:52
Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	65	$762	1,397	1,080	+317	Sumit Nagal	-$22	11-05 13:51
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 08:00 UTC	179	$737	957	531	+426	Up	-$28	01-05 08:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-04 01:00 UTC	174	$689	743	650	+93	Down	+$34	01-04 01:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-01 02:30 UTC	119	$686	838	552	+286	Up	-$3	01-01 02:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 15:15 UTC	143	$681	820	711	+108	Down	+$57	01-05 15:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 03:00 UTC	238	$660	995	807	+188	Down	+$71	01-05 03:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 03:15 UTC	204	$659	980	532	+448	Down	+$14	01-05 03:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-02 14:00 UTC	173	$650	770	550	+220	Down	-$3	01-02 14:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 00:30 UTC	156	$644	742	640	+102	Up	+$72	01-05 00:41
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	18	$642	1,200	1,000	+200	Yes	+$358	06-22 00:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 23:45 UTC	199	$637	983	675	+308	Down	+$25	01-05 23:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-06 00:00 UTC	133	$622	595	485	+111	Down	+$17	01-06 00:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 03:30 UTC	132	$610	612	516	+96	Down	+$12	01-05 03:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-06 03:15 UTC	177	$606	860	555	+305	Up	+$13	01-06 03:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-06 01:00 UTC	123	$605	632	308	+325	Up	-$31	01-06 01:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 10:30 UTC	122	$586	600	360	+240	Down	-$188	01-05 10:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-11 01:30 UTC	171	$583	1,212	0	+1,212	Up	+$10	01-11 01:44
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	2	$580	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$580	02-07 13:23
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 15:00 UTC	150	$574	870	800	+70	Up	+$49	01-05 15:13
will bitcoin dip to 70k february 2 8	4	$565	338	338	+0	Yes	+$110	02-05 11:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 13:51:01	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xe660a1…
11-05 13:50:52	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	0	18¢	$0	0xcb2a8d…
11-05 13:50:49	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xea9d34…
11-05 13:50:46	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xc3053f…
11-05 13:50:45	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x3979c6…
11-05 13:50:43	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xebc882…
11-05 13:50:42	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	16	21¢	$3	0x690a78…
11-05 13:50:42	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	4	21¢	$1	0x05f5a0…
11-05 13:50:09	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x3499db…
11-05 13:50:07	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xab870b…
11-05 13:50:07	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x1299f2…
11-05 13:50:06	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xf79355…
11-05 13:50:04	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x26d6e1…
11-05 13:50:03	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x2aa316…
11-05 13:50:01	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x72b1e9…
11-05 13:50:00	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x1f3a89…
11-05 13:49:57	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xd4d8a9…
11-05 13:49:57	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xc3a835…
11-05 13:49:51	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	2	28¢	$1	0x5b9a99…
11-05 13:49:30	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x0760a3…
11-05 13:49:28	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x641bed…
11-05 13:49:22	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Sumit Nagal	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xa5ef80…
11-05 13:49:21	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Sumit Nagal	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xb142fd…
11-05 13:49:18	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x922b94…
11-05 13:49:16	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x6f752e…
11-05 13:49:16	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x62c5ae…
11-05 13:48:54	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x2343db…
11-05 13:48:52	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xee103c…
11-05 13:48:46	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x57ac90…
11-05 13:48:45	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x61edfc…
11-05 13:48:43	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xc9a399…
11-05 13:48:42	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x893ea5…
11-05 13:48:40	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0x30cb49…
11-05 13:48:40	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x282b37…
11-05 13:48:24	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x5c3708…
11-05 13:48:03	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Sumit Nagal	BUY	17	71¢	$12	0xe0cf29…
11-05 13:47:46	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Sumit Nagal	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x97cb54…
11-05 13:47:46	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Sumit Nagal	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x3d02f4…
11-05 13:47:45	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Sumit Nagal	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x2629a7…
11-05 13:47:43	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xd59773…
11-05 13:47:42	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x2577f4…
11-05 13:47:03	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x4eab21…
11-05 13:47:01	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x1d1efd…
11-05 13:46:42	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0xbf5f13…
11-05 13:42:28	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x0faeac…
11-05 13:42:27	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xd80379…
11-05 13:42:27	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x0479b8…
11-05 13:42:24	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xfc4a9f…
11-05 13:42:24	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x6ddd08…
11-05 13:41:28	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	178	30¢	$53	0xab1c15…
11-05 13:41:21	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0xd901a2…
11-05 13:41:21	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x16b89b…
11-05 13:41:19	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	33	30¢	$10	0xbb636a…
11-05 13:40:39	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0x95de0b…
11-05 13:40:37	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	484	30¢	$145	0xb0b242…
11-05 13:40:24	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	SELL	90	30¢	$27	0xcb7548…
11-05 13:35:31	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0x8e1bb9…
11-05 13:35:22	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xda1f7d…
11-05 13:35:21	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xcc79d5…
11-05 13:35:19	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xa18c95…
11-05 13:35:19	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x6e8824…
11-05 13:35:18	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x20620b…
11-05 13:35:16	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x955b56…
11-05 13:35:15	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x6dee59…
11-05 13:35:15	Taranto: Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier	Hugo Grenier	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x01b1e4…
11-05 13:18:16	Luanda: Justina Mikulskyte vs Tiphanie Lemaitre	Tiphanie Lemaitre	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0xcbe8c3…
10-30 01:26:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	60	13¢	$8	0xc2d06c…
10-30 01:25:04	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	493	13¢	$65	0xe4dd4b…
10-30 01:23:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	126	12¢	$15	0x6309c8…
10-06 01:05:01	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	20,000	0¢	$40	0xd7dc53…
09-23 08:50:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x9f39bc…
09-23 08:50:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x6e0b37…
09-23 08:50:14	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xba00df…
09-23 08:50:14	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xb253de…
09-23 08:50:14	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x96cc25…
09-23 08:50:14	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x548a7a…
09-23 08:50:14	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x3088b1…
09-23 08:44:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xe6d5aa…
09-23 08:44:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xc37ff4…
09-23 08:44:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x0c72f7…
09-23 08:44:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x5da83c…
09-23 08:44:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x5a3070…
09-23 08:44:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x490000…
09-23 08:43:38	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xe739f4…
09-23 08:43:35	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x2ffa63…
09-23 08:43:35	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x295ed2…
09-23 08:43:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xf8b81c…
09-23 08:43:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x886f98…
09-23 08:43:28	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xea0d42…
09-23 08:43:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x9c940e…
09-23 08:41:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x90de95…
09-23 08:11:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	4¢	$2	0xc2e9f6…
09-23 07:03:23	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	4¢	$2	0xeea05c…
09-23 07:03:23	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	4¢	$2	0xaddaee…
09-21 08:48:26	will bitcoin reach 86k september 21 27 2026	No	BUY	995	41¢	$408	0x188e9a…
09-21 08:48:14	will bitcoin reach 86k september 21 27 2026	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x97cd19…
09-14 09:14:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	4¢	$22	0x444858…
09-14 09:13:36	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xcd817e…
09-14 09:13:36	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xbb41d3…
09-14 09:13:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xc446b0…