Arid-Escalator — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$178

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

81.2%

Resolved

Trades

3,070

lifetime

Volume

$268.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$87

Open exposure

$91

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-06 01:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Sports

54% 100% +$10

Other

42% 80% $-188

Politics

3% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No		+200	$96	46¢	$91	$-5	06-06 01:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will seguro win all of portugals districts	8	$5.1K	2,569	2,569	+0	open	—	02-08 21:09
will antnio jos seguro win the second round by 3035	3	$4.9K	2,437	2,437	+0	open	—	02-08 21:34
epl mac ful 2026 02 11 mac	9	$4.6K	2,660	1,912	+748	open	—	02-12 00:32
ucl qar1 new 2026 02 18 new	4	$3.2K	2,890	323	+2,567	open	—	02-18 21:58
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	6	$3.0K	2,938	73	+2,865	open	—	03-06 19:48
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	14	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	04-12 19:34
AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 5.5	7	$2.4K	1,250	1,250	+0	Under	+$58	05-10 19:00
epl ast che 2026 03 04 che	4	$2.3K	2,325	0	+2,325	open	—	03-04 21:21
bra int pal 2026 02 12 pal	4	$2.1K	1,075	1,075	+0	open	—	02-13 04:18
efl mnc new 2026 02 04 mnc win	13	$2.1K	751	1,350	-599	open	—	02-05 00:33
por por mor 2026 03 15 mor	2	$2.0K	996	996	+0	open	—	03-15 21:40
sea bol mil 2026 02 03 mil	20	$1.8K	871	905	-34	open	—	02-03 21:39
por por mor 2026 03 15 por	14	$1.7K	1,771	0	+1,771	open	—	03-15 21:48
lal bar lev 2026 02 22 bar	11	$1.7K	1,700	0	+1,700	open	—	02-22 16:54
ucl new fcb1 2026 03 10 spread home 1pt5	25	$1.7K	1,750	0	+1,750	open	—	03-10 21:51
lal val rea 2026 02 08 val	4	$1.5K	741	741	+0	open	—	02-08 21:46
spx up or down on january 30 2026	15	$1.5K	773	873	-100	open	—	01-30 20:58
nba dal lal 2026 02 12 1h total 122pt5	2	$1.5K	742	742	+0	open	—	02-13 05:26
ucl mnc1 rma1 2026 03 17 spread home 1pt5	5	$1.4K	1,443	0	+1,443	open	—	03-17 21:52
por ben por 2026 03 08 spread home 2pt5	8	$1.4K	1,444	13	+1,431	open	—	03-08 16:19
will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	6	$1.3K	644	644	+0	open	—	03-04 03:48
nba cle sac 2026 02 07 total 230pt5	4	$1.3K	645	645	+0	open	—	02-08 05:10
ucl atm1 tot 2026 03 10 atm1	7	$1.3K	640	640	+0	open	—	03-10 21:45
fif col fra 2026 03 29 fra	21	$1.3K	1,100	180	+920	open	—	03-29 20:55
por gui mor 2026 01 30 total 2pt5	18	$1.2K	621	621	+0	open	—	01-30 23:04
AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	18	$1.2K	965	965	+0	Under	$-295	05-10 18:50
ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 rma1	2	$1.2K	1,228	0	+1,228	open	—	03-11 21:14
ucl ben rma 2026 02 17 total 3pt5	13	$1.2K	1,224	0	+1,224	open	—	02-17 21:55
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	8	$1.2K	585	600	-15	open	—	01-28 19:00
Spread: AVS Futebol (-2.5)	2	$1.2K	608	608	+0	open	—	05-10 19:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-06 01:37:00	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	198	48¢	$95	0xb4d98d…
06-05 22:01:27	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x6e82c7…
06-04 01:59:49	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Spurs	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x595297…
06-03 03:42:14	Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	250	99¢	$248	0x87801e…
06-01 23:10:42	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	87¢	$109	0x37a7e7…
06-01 23:09:17	Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	250	96¢	$240	0xe76eae…
06-01 23:05:19	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xa23b57…
06-01 23:02:57	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	87¢	$22	0xdc2d54…
05-21 00:37:40	Spread: Thunder (-14.5)	Spurs	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x96b3ed…
05-16 16:17:43	FC Porto vs. CD Santa Clara: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	24	87¢	$21	0x251349…
05-16 16:16:26	FC Porto vs. CD Santa Clara: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	138	87¢	$120	0x80bdaa…
05-16 16:15:27	FC Porto vs. CD Santa Clara: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	53	87¢	$46	0xbffdd6…
05-16 16:13:33	FC Porto vs. CD Santa Clara: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x37f966…
05-16 16:13:28	FC Porto vs. CD Santa Clara: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	211	89¢	$188	0x6e646b…
05-16 03:51:00	Spread: Spurs (-15.5)	Timberwolves	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0xfee469…
05-16 01:40:09	Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x1db863…
05-16 01:37:28	nba det cle 2026 05 15 spread away 5pt5	Pistons	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xd2ec4a…
05-11 21:09:57	Spread: SC Braga (-1.5)	Sport Lisboa e Benfica	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb41856…
05-11 21:09:41	Spread: SC Braga (-1.5)	Sport Lisboa e Benfica	BUY	366	97¢	$355	0x218def…
05-11 20:55:57	Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)	SC Braga	BUY	300	98¢	$294	0x01e4ff…
05-11 20:41:37	Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)	Sport Lisboa e Benfica	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x9737d1…
05-11 20:41:34	Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)	Sport Lisboa e Benfica	BUY	130	21¢	$27	0x33b4c0…
05-11 20:41:34	Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)	Sport Lisboa e Benfica	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0x1615a7…
05-11 19:54:21	Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	250	94¢	$235	0x84d1a2…
05-10 22:19:15	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers	Thunder	BUY	214	99¢	$213	0x7e3caf…
05-10 22:13:03	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers	Thunder	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0x578567…
05-10 22:11:49	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers	Thunder	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0x688a9a…
05-10 21:36:23	Spread: Knicks (-1.5)	Knicks	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8646a8…
05-10 21:35:09	Spread: Knicks (-1.5)	Knicks	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x0523d5…
05-10 19:00:38	Spread: AVS Futebol (-2.5)	FC Porto	SELL	608	100¢	$608	0x0533e0…
05-10 19:00:29	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 5.5	Under	SELL	1,250	100¢	$1,249	0xdfbbcd…
05-10 18:50:48	Spread: AVS Futebol (-2.5)	FC Porto	BUY	608	89¢	$544	0x25e8a6…
05-10 18:50:17	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	171	57¢	$97	0x71d9dc…
05-10 18:48:56	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	171	52¢	$89	0xc545a1…
05-10 18:47:48	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	114	51¢	$58	0x4f0c49…
05-10 18:45:03	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	30	44¢	$13	0xf8efe6…
05-10 18:45:02	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	470	44¢	$207	0x8b2b8f…
05-10 18:42:14	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x30c813…
05-10 18:42:00	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xe623c2…
05-10 18:20:11	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	17	78¢	$13	0x3af29f…
05-10 18:20:09	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	55	78¢	$43	0xff1873…
05-10 18:20:09	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	17	78¢	$13	0xe9d698…
05-10 18:20:09	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	77	78¢	$60	0xe00d51…
05-10 18:20:09	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	55	78¢	$43	0xdd060f…
05-10 18:20:09	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	55	78¢	$43	0xc25980…
05-10 18:20:09	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	160	78¢	$125	0xb14095…
05-10 18:20:09	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	17	78¢	$13	0xaccbe4…
05-10 18:20:09	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	23	78¢	$18	0xaa324d…
05-10 18:20:09	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	23	78¢	$18	0x000913…
05-10 18:15:32	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	147	94¢	$138	0x166efa…
05-10 18:15:31	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	83	94¢	$78	0x4f128d…
05-10 18:15:29	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xb3a45b…
05-10 18:15:25	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	300	96¢	$288	0x1d132b…
05-10 17:51:25	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	500	96¢	$480	0x763450…
05-10 17:42:16	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x11e9aa…
05-10 17:40:59	AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	465	81¢	$377	0xb473a1…
05-08 01:41:36	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers	Thunder	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xd47d23…
05-07 20:53:00	SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0x1cb0ab…
05-07 20:51:22	SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	80	85¢	$68	0xe4449c…
05-07 20:51:05	SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x4fd6d5…
05-07 20:47:36	Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)	Aston Villa FC	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x91fa87…
05-07 20:31:43	NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Timberwolves Total Games O/U 5.5	Over 5.5	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x3c1836…
05-06 20:58:28	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	153	96¢	$147	0xc53c8d…
05-06 20:58:18	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xa3d142…
05-06 20:58:14	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x0d415b…
05-06 20:58:04	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	73	96¢	$70	0x4d86cd…
05-06 20:57:57	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	45	96¢	$44	0x755a42…
05-06 20:57:57	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x2f0acc…
05-06 20:54:25	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0x00fac9…
05-06 20:54:11	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xad8904…
05-06 20:54:02	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	500	98¢	$490	0xe2f35e…
05-06 20:48:02	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0xbcd995…
05-06 20:35:12	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x43a99a…
05-06 20:28:13	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe0f571…
05-06 20:27:02	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	271	96¢	$260	0xc3d1a8…
05-02 21:04:14	FC Porto vs. FC Alverca: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	22	93¢	$21	0xebe50e…
04-30 18:45:56	Spread: FC Alverca (-2.5)	FC Porto	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x3253b0…
04-30 18:43:28	Spread: FC Famalicão (-1.5)	Sport Lisboa e Benfica	SELL	7	98¢	$6	0x6a2d56…
04-30 18:43:04	Spread: FC Famalicão (-1.5)	Sport Lisboa e Benfica	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xb32dbf…
04-30 18:42:08	Spread: FC Famalicão (-1.5)	Sport Lisboa e Benfica	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x458c2e…
04-29 23:43:58	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xfe54c2…
04-29 23:42:50	Spread: FC Famalicão (-2.5)	Sport Lisboa e Benfica	BUY	265	98¢	$260	0xcd71d1…
04-29 23:10:56	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x8d60c8…
04-29 23:10:44	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xfb9a14…
04-29 22:49:28	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	15	91¢	$13	0x97baea…
04-29 21:56:36	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0x483da2…
04-29 18:33:16	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0x09e4ca…
04-29 17:55:14	Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	25	82¢	$20	0xe3bf04…
04-29 16:21:24	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xf8a1f8…
04-29 15:37:30	Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf39ad7…
04-29 01:33:08	Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 6.5	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x239510…
04-29 01:32:54	Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 6.5	No	BUY	112	99¢	$111	0x944f94…
04-29 01:32:24	Derrick White: Assists O/U 4.5	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x738729…
04-29 01:32:00	Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 7.5	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x205968…
04-29 01:31:44	Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 6.5	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xc88d72…
04-29 01:31:32	Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x3e83ef…
04-29 01:02:32	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xbf6870…
04-27 16:29:06	Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xb6e535…
04-27 12:18:20	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	No	BUY	130	93¢	$121	0x7cd072…
04-27 12:14:08	Spread: FC Famalicão (-2.5)	Sport Lisboa e Benfica	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x035bc8…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x914a…f967	542	$702	1,310	02-28 14:53
Shady-Auditorium 0xc88a…7e26	453	$577	1,125	04-26 16:47
Frail-Possible 0x204f…5e14	304	$5.54M	25,896	06-04 03:03
(anonymous) 0xba26…23c9	286	$131.3K	1,610	03-18 03:50
(anonymous) 0xa4bd…e8a2	229	$77.5K	7,777	03-18 21:53
Scary-Edible 0x2005…75ea	214	$1.60M	15,148	05-11 21:13
Parallel-Flock 0x507e…beae	212	$1.77M	7,276	04-26 17:41
(anonymous) 0x558c…150a	186	$11.5K	508	03-18 01:01