This-Effective — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$83

Unrealized P&L

+$11

Hit rate

46.8%

Resolved

2,228

Trades

5,647

lifetime

Volume

$6.59K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$145

3 positions

First seen

2026-06-01

last 11-01 01:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 46% +$74

Other

2% 60% $0

Tech

1% 100% +$8

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 1383 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+110	$100	97¢	$107	+$7	10-08 16:02
will bitcoin reach 95000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	+42	$30	84¢	$35	+$5	10-08 16:03
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+5	$4	53¢	$2	-$2	06-13 15:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	2	$100	110	+110	open	—	10-08 16:02
will bitcoin reach 95000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	2	$30	42	+42	open	—	10-08 16:03
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$25	27	+27	Yes	+$2	06-01 14:20
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	6	$21	30	+30	Down	-$6	10-27 14:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	8	$18	35	+35	Up	-$3	10-27 09:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	3	$14	15	+15	Down	+$1	10-27 16:44
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	6	$13	34	+34	Down	+$2	10-27 07:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	3	$13	15	+15	Down	+$2	10-27 17:29
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	3	$12	15	+15	Down	+$3	10-28 00:59
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	3	$12	15	+15	Down	+$4	10-27 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	4	$11	21	+21	Down	+$5	10-27 08:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	3	$11	15	+15	Down	+$4	10-27 19:29
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	3	$10	15	+15	Down	+$5	10-27 17:44
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	3	$10	15	+15	Up	-$10	10-27 18:29
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	1	$10	11	+11	Yes	+$1	06-21 13:58
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners	1	$10	10	+10	Seattle Mariners	+$0	06-03 03:27
spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	1	$10	13	+13	Up	+$3	06-20 10:36
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$10	12	+12	Yes	+$2	06-01 14:23
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	1	$10	12	+12	Yes	+$2	07-10 07:41
trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15 20260612142709365	1	$10	10	+10	No	+$0	06-13 15:14
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	1	$10	10	+10	Yes	+$0	06-22 11:02
will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in july 2026	1	$10	10	+10	No	+$0	07-10 07:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	3	$10	24	+24	Down	+$15	10-27 21:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	3	$9	15	+15	Up	+$6	10-28 03:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	2	$9	10	+10	Up	+$1	10-27 22:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	2	$9	10	+10	Down	+$1	10-27 17:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	3	$9	15	+15	Down	+$6	10-27 21:09
will xauusd reach 4600 in june 2026	1	$9	9	+9	No	+$0	06-21 18:03
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	2	$9	10	+10	Up	-$9	10-27 19:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	2	$9	10	+10	Up	-$9	10-27 21:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 01:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x79159a…
11-01 01:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x6bb70c…
11-01 01:50:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x71ed4c…
11-01 01:50:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x0988eb…
11-01 01:50:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x029093…
11-01 01:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xbe7bcf…
11-01 01:45:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xadee24…
11-01 01:45:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xd2b111…
11-01 01:45:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x2ed5ce…
11-01 01:41:49	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x596328…
11-01 01:40:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x6aaa2c…
11-01 01:35:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf1ae53…
11-01 01:35:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x8dfd16…
11-01 01:35:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x1a8494…
11-01 01:30:37	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x8e8ed6…
11-01 01:30:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xfd0704…
11-01 01:30:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x7aaf6f…
11-01 01:30:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x2c4835…
11-01 01:27:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x688f76…
11-01 01:25:52	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x049eb4…
11-01 01:25:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x6fab85…
11-01 01:25:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xfc8f27…
11-01 01:25:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xc52a39…
11-01 01:25:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x38df19…
11-01 01:20:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xfc65c2…
11-01 01:20:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xde2133…
11-01 01:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x7be66a…
11-01 01:20:10	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x5d5964…
11-01 01:20:10	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x0e35c6…
11-01 01:15:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xdf161c…
11-01 01:15:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xdcf0e2…
11-01 01:15:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xb25fe7…
11-01 01:15:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x7d7e70…
11-01 01:15:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x4f4d2f…
11-01 01:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x4f72ca…
11-01 01:10:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xccfb52…
11-01 01:10:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xa52f47…
11-01 01:10:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x484c37…
11-01 01:10:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xeec6fa…
11-01 01:10:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xe5376e…
11-01 01:10:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x278b4c…
11-01 01:06:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0x7f0d21…
11-01 01:06:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0xf193c6…
11-01 01:05:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xf4d6ac…
11-01 01:05:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x926c09…
11-01 01:05:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x8158ee…
11-01 01:00:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x49bc00…
11-01 01:00:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x8452d1…
11-01 01:00:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xe7942d…
11-01 01:00:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x61d2ae…
11-01 01:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x14016e…
11-01 00:55:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x65881e…
11-01 00:55:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x49fd8b…
11-01 00:55:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x3b4493…
11-01 00:55:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xa4cf86…
11-01 00:55:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x15459e…
11-01 00:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb39a6a…
11-01 00:50:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xae1209…
11-01 00:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x127903…
11-01 00:50:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x10928a…
11-01 00:50:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x0ffd7a…
11-01 00:46:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xc9c3b0…
11-01 00:45:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xf86953…
11-01 00:45:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xf0cd7d…
11-01 00:45:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x5c9405…
11-01 00:45:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xaf635a…
11-01 00:45:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9db09f…
11-01 00:40:22	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x89eb14…
11-01 00:40:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xa764d8…
11-01 00:40:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x442294…
11-01 00:40:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xfe32f4…
11-01 00:40:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xcbe1e6…
11-01 00:40:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x0f5f66…
11-01 00:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xf5b0bc…
11-01 00:30:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xb479a3…
11-01 00:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x94e8a1…
11-01 00:30:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x3b37e2…
11-01 00:25:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xa3bf56…
11-01 00:25:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x9a9aa6…
11-01 00:25:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x3fecad…
11-01 00:25:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x3f1652…
11-01 00:25:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x1e0f1c…
11-01 00:25:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x068a87…
11-01 00:20:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x400ad8…
11-01 00:20:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x3151d1…
11-01 00:20:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x199110…
11-01 00:20:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe89183…
11-01 00:20:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xb66ee9…
11-01 00:15:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x4adc92…
11-01 00:15:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x01d33c…
11-01 00:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0x2ec015…
11-01 00:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0x04c546…
11-01 00:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xd063c8…
11-01 00:10:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xc6fdc6…
11-01 00:10:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x515397…
11-01 00:10:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xf80f37…
11-01 00:10:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x44d727…
11-01 00:05:10	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x510aaf…
11-01 00:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xeb52b5…
11-01 00:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x9e2ce8…