Scarce-Molding — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.37K

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

78.1%

Resolved

245

Trades

1,960

lifetime

Volume

$22.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$60

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-28

last 10-26 23:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 77 days

Categories

Other

72% 57% +$315

Sports

26% 53% +$881

Politics

2% 71% +$171

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 64 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Viktor Orbán arrested by...?	Yes	+200	$45	13¢	$27	-$18	10-24 21:09
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+200	$12	10¢	$20	+$9	08-15 21:02
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+300	$18	4¢	$14	-$4	08-17 21:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	20	$1.4K	1,940	1,171	+769	open	—	10-26 22:11
Will Alex de Minaur Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	22	$868	797	531	+266	open	—	10-23 19:24
will rafael jodar qualify for the nitto atp finals 2026 20260728191143812	34	$684	858	445	+413	open	—	10-25 15:57
Will Arthur Fils Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	20	$425	349	229	+120	open	—	10-08 02:57
Will Taylor Fritz Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	26	$363	375	249	+126	open	—	10-23 10:20
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026?	18	$356	460	210	+251	cancelled	-$27	09-07 21:28
Will Novak Djokovic Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	29	$355	576	410	+165	open	—	10-26 10:46
Will Alexander Zverev be Number 1 on the End of Year ATP Rankings	10	$340	415	215	+200	open	—	10-06 10:09
Will Taylor Fritz Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	19	$312	481	241	+240	open	—	10-24 09:47
Will Arthur Fils Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	34	$293	642	533	+109	open	—	10-26 11:11
Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	15	$284	356	34	+322	open	—	10-10 18:53
Will Rafael Jodar Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	22	$284	341	266	+75	open	—	10-19 06:07
Will Alex de Minaur Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	26	$278	602	40	+562	open	—	10-23 10:52
Will VfB Stuttgart reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?	5	$276	221	86	+135	open	—	10-15 11:08
Will Frances Tiafoe Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	22	$250	497	20	+477	open	—	10-12 10:21
Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	15	$245	500	20	+480	open	—	10-24 23:37
Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	7	$245	310	210	+100	Yes	+$58	10-26 17:44
Will Novak Djokovic Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	27	$239	598	127	+471	open	—	10-21 04:09
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	18	$234	288	155	+133	open	—	10-05 14:14
Will Daniil Medvedev Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	17	$221	338	93	+245	open	—	10-07 23:08
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	11	$203	250	250	+0	open	—	08-31 12:20
Will Ben Shelton Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	8	$199	700	100	+600	Yes	+$31	10-18 20:19
will lionel messi score 13 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260701232556159	4	$199	227	27	+200	No	+$2	07-15 21:49
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?	5	$188	300	300	+0	open	—	09-02 10:31
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?	7	$177	270	100	+170	Yes	+$118	06-28 21:06
Viktor Orbán arrested by...?	7	$175	350	150	+200	open	—	10-24 21:09
Will Flavio Cobolli Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	11	$168	245	35	+210	open	—	10-21 13:19
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	4	$158	120	80	+40	No	+$14	10-26 21:57
Will PSV Eindhoven finish as runner-up in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	7	$153	81	81	+0	open	—	10-06 20:34
UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion	8	$149	150	100	+50	Yes	+$16	05-07 00:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 23:04:42	Will Lionel Messi finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	66	0¢	$0	0x2cddae…
10-26 22:11:44	Will Felix Auger-Aliassime Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	No	SELL	84	97¢	$81	0xca0b64…
10-26 22:09:18	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x565558…
10-26 22:09:09	Will Michael Olise finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x783fbe…
10-26 21:57:39	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0xc6c770…
10-26 21:57:26	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x7d90c5…
10-26 21:54:32	Will Lionel Messi finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	60	87¢	$52	0x5c9f2f…
10-26 18:26:30	Will Paris Saint-Germain reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League quarterfinal?	No	BUY	7	13¢	$1	0x4ffad1…
10-26 17:44:56	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0xa552a3…
10-26 16:21:47	Will Liverpool be runner-up in the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xd47fd3…
10-26 16:21:32	Will Liverpool be runner-up in the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0xda6c43…
10-26 15:39:17	Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x0d90c1…
10-26 15:39:17	Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x029024…
10-26 15:22:06	Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0x69ce74…
10-26 15:07:38	Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	16	16¢	$3	0x7cbef7…
10-26 14:57:24	Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xb5f8d7…
10-26 14:57:24	Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	42	16¢	$7	0xa2ffee…
10-26 14:40:35	Will Vitinha finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x1b3fda…
10-26 14:35:06	Will Vitinha finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x24617f…
10-26 13:38:51	Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	60	54¢	$32	0x2d0608…
10-26 13:36:53	Will Pau Cubarsi finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x14413f…
10-26 13:35:53	Will Vitinha finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xef8613…
10-26 13:35:36	Will Vitinha finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0x394a35…
10-26 11:11:30	Will Arthur Fils Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x5b6673…
10-26 10:46:41	Will Novak Djokovic Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x81cd1a…
10-26 10:46:41	Will Novak Djokovic Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x47f6b4…
10-26 07:50:44	Will Czechia be relegated from Nations League A in 2026-27?	No	BUY	40	11¢	$4	0x4f36ba…
10-26 01:21:38	Will AI solve the twin prime conjecture in 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	7¢	$6	0x5638f6…
10-26 00:48:15	Will Paris Saint-Germain reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League quarterfinal?	No	BUY	290	13¢	$38	0x5776e7…
10-26 00:06:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?	Yes	SELL	482	0¢	$1	0xbfcc06…
10-25 23:19:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?	Yes	BUY	482	2¢	$7	0x86f954…
10-25 21:23:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	150	31¢	$46	0x996595…
10-25 20:00:42	Will Manchester United finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	Yes	SELL	465	4¢	$19	0xc58147…
10-25 15:57:45	Will Rafael Jodar Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	66¢	$11	0x00c978…
10-25 15:57:44	Will Rafael Jodar Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xdff828…
10-25 15:57:44	Will Rafael Jodar Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x450771…
10-25 14:24:00	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	80	82¢	$66	0xc26cfd…
10-25 14:23:14	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	80	82¢	$66	0x064aa7…
10-25 13:06:45	Will Atlético Madrid finish top 8 in UCL league phase?	No	BUY	37	79¢	$29	0x99d38c…
10-25 13:06:45	Will Atlético Madrid finish top 8 in UCL league phase?	No	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x658833…
10-25 10:05:57	Will Thun finish 9th-24th in UECL league phase?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xc87917…
10-25 10:01:12	Will Leylah Fernandez win the 2026 Ningbo, China?	Yes	SELL	80	14¢	$11	0x4319f2…
10-25 01:59:57	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	25	69¢	$17	0xc4f6af…
10-24 23:37:54	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x5c8977…
10-24 22:01:23	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x341f94…
10-24 22:01:15	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0xe094c2…
10-24 22:00:33	Will Brighton & Hove Albion be runner-up in the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	BUY	60	6¢	$4	0xf67d89…
10-24 22:00:27	Will Brighton & Hove Albion be runner-up in the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x650020…
10-24 22:00:11	Will Brighton & Hove Albion be runner-up in the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xdf188a…
10-24 21:47:57	Will AEK Athens finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x24255f…
10-24 21:42:00	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	90	51¢	$46	0x1e49c6…
10-24 21:41:57	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x504714…
10-24 21:11:35	Will Barcelona finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xc83e6b…
10-24 21:09:57	Viktor Orbán arrested by...?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xb85ddc…
10-24 20:51:44	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	39	86¢	$34	0xdabbe2…
10-24 20:51:06	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x9089f4…
10-24 20:49:09	Will RB Leipzig finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?	Yes	SELL	29	63¢	$18	0x975e1f…
10-24 18:49:15	Will Novak Djokovic Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x585ca9…
10-24 18:49:14	Will Novak Djokovic Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0x276ec8…
10-24 18:26:26	Will Sporting CP finish top 8 in UCL league phase?	Yes	BUY	65	13¢	$8	0xc903f3…
10-24 16:20:41	Will Leylah Fernandez win the 2026 Ningbo, China?	Yes	BUY	31	21¢	$7	0x039981…
10-24 16:16:36	Will Thibaut Courtois (Real Madrid) record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 La Liga season?	Yes	BUY	41	10¢	$4	0x7c58e9…
10-24 13:46:24	Will Tommy Paul Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xb9c2ba…
10-24 11:59:08	Will Greece win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xe0c8af…
10-24 11:24:20	Viktor Orbán arrested by...?	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0xd5a07d…
10-24 10:45:12	Will Ben Shelton Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	No	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x3c30aa…
10-24 10:06:45	Will Arthur Fils Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xa1de2a…
10-24 09:47:26	Will Taylor Fritz Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xa922f2…
10-24 09:47:17	Will Taylor Fritz Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	No	BUY	6	88¢	$6	0xd600a4…
10-24 09:47:06	Will Leylah Fernandez win the 2026 Ningbo, China?	Yes	BUY	60	19¢	$11	0x3365b0…
10-24 09:21:56	Will Novak Djokovic Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	No	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0xae2846…
10-24 04:12:02	Will Northern Ireland win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?	Yes	SELL	18	50¢	$9	0xdb4a92…
10-24 03:44:48	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	53¢	$21	0xe9cc1d…
10-24 03:44:48	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0xd25628…
10-23 22:03:56	Will Shakhtar Donetsk finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?	No	BUY	40	47¢	$19	0x02bef9…
10-23 21:26:57	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xae8e35…
10-23 21:26:56	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x459579…
10-23 21:23:38	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	1	45¢	$0	0x9beb47…
10-23 21:23:38	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	19	45¢	$9	0x342b4d…
10-23 21:16:15	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x9f5545…
10-23 21:15:00	Viktor Orbán arrested by...?	Yes	SELL	100	24¢	$24	0x10c357…
10-23 21:10:05	Viktor Orbán arrested by...?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0xf99c52…
10-23 21:01:03	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	40	71¢	$28	0xbc9a8d…
10-23 20:59:05	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x06ebe4…
10-23 20:57:59	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x6712d4…
10-23 20:57:48	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x56ba47…
10-23 20:57:35	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x7a77e9…
10-23 20:40:42	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x3557da…
10-23 20:31:56	Will Rodri finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x4ef1b3…
10-23 20:31:24	Will Rodri finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x023678…
10-23 20:30:56	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	37	69¢	$25	0x1651d8…
10-23 20:30:47	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	35	68¢	$24	0x566466…
10-23 20:30:41	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x7c3883…
10-23 20:29:48	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0xf44b4a…
10-23 20:28:02	Will Rodri finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x4696e9…
10-23 20:27:47	Will Lionel Messi finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0xb86775…
10-23 20:27:30	Will Lionel Messi finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	16	28¢	$4	0x7fc26b…
10-23 20:27:09	Will Villarreal finish top 8 in UCL league phase?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x15e4ce…
10-23 20:26:51	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	40	69¢	$28	0x137397…
10-23 20:26:30	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xaeb526…