Well-Made-Prison — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.70K

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

64.9%

Resolved

545

Trades

1,125

lifetime

Volume

$18.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$198

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-21 20:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 87 days

Categories

Crypto

76% 58% +$15

Other

11% 39% -$732

Politics

8% 40% -$757

Sports

3% 46% -$221

Tech

2% 50% -$8

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+156	$100	68¢	$107	+$7	10-11 20:30
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	-77	-$47	44¢	$-33	+$13	07-18 21:49
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	-79	-$32	36¢	$-29	+$3	07-18 21:49
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-143	-$29	18¢	$-26	+$3	07-18 21:49
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+133	$20	2¢	$3	-$17	10-11 20:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down on march 17 2026	7	$884	517	513	+5	Up	+$129	03-17 15:44
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$500	592	0	+592	No	-$500	10-06 21:39
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$279	0	353	-353	Yes	-$74	05-11 17:45
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	3	$250	482	0	+482	No	-$250	06-25 20:44
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$232	175	175	+0	No	+$32	01-21 13:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 10:40 UTC	3	$220	226	0	+226	Down	+$6	03-02 10:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-31 09:15 UTC	3	$214	143	139	+4	Down	+$37	03-31 09:24
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	2	$204	105	105	+0	No	+$4	02-12 07:53
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	1	$200	260	0	+260	Yes	-$200	02-28 10:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET	2	$200	244	0	+244	Up	+$44	05-16 11:27
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 11:30 UTC	8	$192	148	146	+2	Down	+$36	02-11 11:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-31 09:30 UTC	6	$176	137	133	+4	Up	+$14	03-31 09:43
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$169	224	0	+224	Yes	-$169	07-18 21:50
bitcoin above 70k on february 24	2	$163	94	94	+0	No	+$25	02-24 07:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-27 17:15 UTC	6	$157	97	96	+1	Down	+$28	03-27 17:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 22:35 UTC	7	$145	186	0	+186	Down	-$145	03-21 22:38
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	1	$140	171	0	+171	Yes	-$140	07-18 21:40
bitcoin up or down march 19 2026 7am et	7	$139	146	144	+2	Down	-$41	03-19 11:36
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-01 15:15 UTC	5	$134	78	77	+1	Up	+$16	04-01 15:23
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-31 17:15 UTC	5	$134	149	37	+111	Down	+$5	03-31 17:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11AM ET	5	$130	186	0	+186	Up	-$130	05-18 15:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 09:50 UTC	4	$128	139	0	+139	Down	+$11	03-02 09:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-19 18:45 UTC	10	$126	116	115	+1	Up	-$13	03-19 18:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-22 13:45 UTC	4	$122	74	74	+1	Up	+$23	03-22 13:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 22:20 UTC	5	$122	159	18	+140	Down	+$26	03-21 22:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 14:15 UTC	5	$121	74	73	+1	Up	+$22	03-24 14:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 17:30 UTC	4	$119	129	125	+4	Down	-$38	03-31 17:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 11:15 UTC	2	$110	136	0	+136	Up	-$110	03-02 11:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5AM ET	3	$110	141	0	+141	Down	+$31	05-18 09:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 10:05 UTC	4	$110	119	0	+119	Up	+$9	03-02 10:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 20:18:42	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	178	25¢	$45	0x2a12f7…
10-21 20:17:24	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,484	0¢	$5	0xc01b50…
10-21 20:16:50	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	149	23¢	$35	0x542cea…
10-11 20:39:37	49ers vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	BUY	78	51¢	$40	0xccdb94…
10-11 20:33:07	49ers vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0xb78156…
10-11 20:32:37	Real Racing Club vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0x699b7e…
10-11 20:30:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0xf8e657…
10-11 20:30:04	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x9d60ff…
10-06 21:48:36	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	Natus Vincere	BUY	77	43¢	$33	0xd3dff6…
10-06 21:47:03	Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	21	62¢	$13	0x82fef9…
10-06 21:45:57	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	38	58¢	$22	0xf26f47…
10-06 21:45:09	Islanders vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5	Under	BUY	37	60¢	$22	0x0778ea…
10-06 21:43:56	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	54	61¢	$33	0x35f5df…
10-06 21:43:17	Chicago Fire FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0x9a3430…
10-06 21:39:41	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	592	84¢	$500	0xdf998c…
07-18 21:50:09	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	224	75¢	$169	0xa2de95…
07-18 21:49:54	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	79	40¢	$32	0xad5a65…
07-18 21:49:45	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	94	46¢	$43	0x1037ef…
07-18 21:49:36	Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	77	61¢	$47	0xcf8b84…
07-18 21:49:28	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	250	20¢	$49	0x77a9c3…
07-18 21:40:46	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	171	82¢	$140	0xd0b0ba…
07-03 17:21:40	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0xa861a6…
06-26 21:04:35	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	68	7¢	$5	0xa3ffe7…
06-26 20:54:43	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	116	4¢	$5	0xc58207…
06-25 20:44:26	Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	112	45¢	$50	0x6039fc…
06-25 18:48:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x02fe5f…
06-25 18:47:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 18:45 UTC	Down	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x3022e3…
06-25 18:46:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 18:45 UTC	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x2f6e25…
06-25 18:46:13	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xd8768c…
06-25 18:37:52	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 18:35 UTC	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x9977fc…
06-25 18:37:35	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 18:35 UTC	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xac1b5a…
06-25 13:11:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-25 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x23354f…
06-25 13:11:32	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-25 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x1ae22d…
06-25 13:04:28	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-25 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xacb326…
06-25 13:04:19	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-25 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x4f8f7b…
06-25 13:02:37	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-25 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x6253c0…
06-25 13:01:55	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-25 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xcd7208…
06-25 13:01:40	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-25 13:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x6257a1…
06-25 13:01:28	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-25 13:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x60dad8…
06-25 12:58:34	ethereum up or down june 25 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xc387f6…
06-24 20:55:07	Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0xbda340…
06-24 20:53:13	Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x48d75b…
06-03 13:20:38	Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic	Mia Ristic	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x2e91ee…
06-03 13:20:26	Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic	Mia Ristic	BUY	39	78¢	$30	0xa7d1e0…
06-03 13:09:39	Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5)	Solary	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x9803eb…
06-02 22:21:26	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3?	Yes	SELL	65	10¢	$7	0x568b67…
06-02 19:17:32	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0xaa610e…
06-02 19:15:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	65	15¢	$10	0xfad5a7…
05-28 20:37:54	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x41e703…
05-28 20:34:18	Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox	Atlanta Braves	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x3f2a86…
05-21 17:51:05	Will "Bitcoin" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	Yes	BUY	48	41¢	$20	0x36cdf1…
05-21 09:22:32	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	SELL	24	94¢	$23	0x104ca1…
05-21 09:10:11	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	107	19¢	$20	0xc59dd2…
05-21 09:09:52	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	82	49¢	$40	0x69f8a2…
05-18 15:50:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0xf8bcd6…
05-18 15:45:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0xaf6b10…
05-18 15:06:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	42	72¢	$30	0xf3a018…
05-18 15:05:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x494671…
05-18 15:04:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	59	68¢	$40	0x44e2bd…
05-18 14:15:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0xfb0083…
05-18 14:13:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0x7cd129…
05-18 14:12:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x1c8fc5…
05-18 13:07:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xcde3af…
05-18 11:23:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0x325ebf…
05-18 10:32:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0x1d96e8…
05-18 10:32:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0x4a9e60…
05-18 09:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x67ce7c…
05-18 09:40:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x8b6448…
05-18 09:33:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x69900f…
05-18 08:46:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0xb3c3ab…
05-18 08:46:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0xbbca18…
05-17 20:31:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4PM ET	Down	SELL	39	78¢	$31	0x6b7a3d…
05-17 20:18:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	39	76¢	$30	0x751bf2…
05-17 19:41:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x5d8b85…
05-17 18:33:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x2f28e3…
05-17 17:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x114832…
05-17 14:12:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	54	74¢	$40	0x466169…
05-17 13:31:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x389fe8…
05-17 13:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0xff791f…
05-17 13:17:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x7a6c0b…
05-17 13:17:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x26c098…
05-17 13:14:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x8de6be…
05-17 10:11:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x527fd0…
05-17 09:47:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0x044004…
05-17 09:44:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x6f352e…
05-16 21:03:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x4b06ea…
05-16 20:56:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x8883c6…
05-16 19:45:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x5a11da…
05-16 19:44:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	41	74¢	$30	0xb99a67…
05-16 19:38:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3PM ET	Down	SELL	42	16¢	$7	0x8278f4…
05-16 19:37:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x5df0c4…
05-16 18:50:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	38	86¢	$33	0x2b57da…
05-16 18:44:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0xddeac6…
05-16 18:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	37	81¢	$30	0x77b968…
05-16 11:27:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	121	82¢	$100	0x39264a…
05-16 11:26:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x0778ab…
05-12 20:22:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0x7f0ba0…
05-12 20:22:15	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x56e62e…
05-12 20:21:10	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0x256d79…
05-12 20:21:01	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	36¢	$20	0x523453…