Criminal-Parable — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$696

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

2.1%

Resolved

Trades

1,123

lifetime

Volume

$943.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$840

Open exposure

$49

1 position

First seen

2026-05-23

last 07-16 21:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Politics

100% 36% -$696

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-16).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	No		+49	$48	99¢	$49	+$1	07-16 21:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	914	$891.4K	759,920	1,011,795	-251,875	Yes	-$707	05-23 15:21
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	12	$30.0K	15,001	23,001	-8,000	No	-$2	05-24 06:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	32	$15.5K	14,214	1,294	+12,920	No	+$16	05-23 06:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	40	$3.4K	2,842	2,842	+0	No	+$17	05-24 07:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	31	$1.4K	1,150	1,150	+0	No	-$3	05-24 07:02
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	14	$714	650	800	-150	No	-$23	05-24 07:15
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	14	$344	391	298	+93	No	+$69	05-23 04:08
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	28	$188	271	281	-10	Yes	+$2	05-23 05:07
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	11	$178	228	225	+3	No	-$8	05-23 06:03
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	12	$81	130	200	-70	No	-$57	05-23 04:38
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	14	$79	296	286	+10	Yes	-$1	05-23 04:07
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$48	49	0	+49	open	—	07-16 21:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-16 21:08:05	Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	49	98¢	$48	0xa249f3…
05-24 07:15:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	495	71¢	$351	0x984402…
05-24 07:15:09	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	27	55¢	$15	0xf98ae0…
05-24 07:12:35	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	200	55¢	$110	0x432be1…
05-24 07:12:24	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	13	55¢	$7	0xd7de6c…
05-24 07:11:35	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	60	55¢	$33	0x52078e…
05-24 07:10:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0xbb66b1…
05-24 07:09:12	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xe129a4…
05-24 07:08:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	500	71¢	$355	0x4f238b…
05-24 07:06:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0x911e75…
05-24 07:04:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	138	72¢	$99	0x1ee391…
05-24 07:04:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	135	72¢	$97	0x85f607…
05-24 07:02:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	305	62¢	$189	0x8a92b2…
05-24 07:01:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x581fbc…
05-24 07:01:46	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x47ea4f…
05-24 07:01:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	68	72¢	$49	0xfca6e3…
05-24 07:00:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	18	72¢	$13	0xa7dd53…
05-24 06:59:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0xabfb10…
05-24 06:59:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	125	72¢	$90	0xb76835…
05-24 06:58:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0xcdc83d…
05-24 06:57:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	500	72¢	$360	0x650d9b…
05-24 06:55:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x8841b6…
05-24 06:48:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	239	63¢	$151	0x04c98d…
05-24 06:48:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xca3f8a…
05-24 06:47:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	51	63¢	$32	0x0e345f…
05-24 06:46:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	191	73¢	$140	0x00226d…
05-24 06:45:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xbfbe2d…
05-24 06:45:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	6	73¢	$4	0xbe1929…
05-24 06:42:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	202	73¢	$147	0x2a8f6f…
05-24 06:39:13	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	100	57¢	$57	0x3a9a11…
05-24 06:38:22	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x2a4faa…
05-24 06:37:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	207	64¢	$132	0xc283e7…
05-24 06:23:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x8e314c…
05-24 06:21:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	202	64¢	$129	0x95812b…
05-24 06:15:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x66eefb…
05-24 06:14:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xd8a932…
05-24 06:13:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x63175e…
05-24 06:08:07	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	200	42¢	$84	0x69b87b…
05-24 06:03:36	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	SELL	11,846	100¢	$11,834	0x8e29f7…
05-24 06:03:36	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	SELL	8,154	100¢	$8,146	0x2ff23a…
05-24 05:30:44	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	123	42¢	$52	0x7f4b79…
05-24 05:30:21	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	77	42¢	$32	0x813a3d…
05-24 05:17:05	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,980	0xe2e0cb…
05-24 05:16:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	28¢	$140	0x64b26b…
05-24 05:15:58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0xac5bad…
05-24 05:11:41	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	200	45¢	$90	0x960f24…
05-24 05:08:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	287	27¢	$78	0xd4a38b…
05-24 05:05:39	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0xed3e32…
05-24 05:02:09	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x2820e6…
05-24 04:58:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	27¢	$0	0xa50dde…
05-24 04:58:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0xa65c77…
05-24 04:58:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	211	27¢	$57	0xd2a151…
05-24 04:55:02	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	SELL	1,884	0¢	$2	0xdef4a2…
05-24 04:53:33	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	323	0¢	$0	0xc0279a…
05-24 04:52:35	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	1,561	0¢	$2	0x5d2c23…
05-24 04:52:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	201	72¢	$145	0x3cecd6…
05-24 04:51:44	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	SELL	116	0¢	$0	0xf7d533…
05-24 04:50:57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	116	0¢	$0	0x412adc…
05-24 04:50:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	201	70¢	$141	0x98ab09…
05-24 04:42:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	162	29¢	$47	0x5440c1…
05-24 04:41:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	29¢	$10	0xa35f84…
05-24 04:40:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	29¢	$7	0xe40fae…
05-24 04:39:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	28¢	$62	0xba5be0…
05-24 04:34:12	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	SELL	1,001	0¢	$1	0xd9d27b…
05-24 04:33:50	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	968	0¢	$1	0x5efe97…
05-24 04:33:50	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	33	0¢	$0	0x13c8de…
05-23 15:21:01	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	309,881	0¢	$620	0x444559…
05-23 15:02:49	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x784ce2…
05-23 15:02:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xf7753a…
05-23 15:01:48	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	41	0¢	$0	0x3532de…
05-23 14:59:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x0e580e…
05-23 14:59:19	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x1ac4f1…
05-23 14:53:50	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x865da8…
05-23 14:51:21	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0x2ca649…
05-23 14:51:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	1,078	100¢	$1,074	0xf62652…
05-23 14:51:13	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xe93413…
05-23 14:49:57	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xb3194c…
05-23 14:49:57	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	19	0¢	$0	0x898f44…
05-23 14:49:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	1,567	0¢	$5	0x5931ef…
05-23 14:49:50	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	39	0¢	$0	0xad5606…
05-23 14:49:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	1,072	100¢	$1,068	0xc0cd25…
05-23 14:49:15	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	3,168	100¢	$3,159	0x9a5ce8…
05-23 14:49:15	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	91,495	0¢	$183	0x9a5ce8…
05-23 14:46:54	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x1a1194…
05-23 14:46:38	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xcdef87…
05-23 14:44:35	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xc29cf3…
05-23 14:44:35	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x18cf39…
05-23 14:44:35	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x02aa8c…
05-23 14:44:34	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	3,104	100¢	$3,091	0x1ada88…
05-23 13:39:10	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	190,000	100¢	$189,240	0xbeeab6…
05-23 13:39:01	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	150,000	100¢	$149,400	0x9766e4…
05-23 13:38:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,960	0x1c2590…
05-23 13:38:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,960	0x0f1949…
05-23 13:31:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	90,000	100¢	$89,640	0x09c352…
05-23 13:07:54	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	33,643	100¢	$33,542	0x25df47…
05-23 13:04:05	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x39dee7…
05-23 13:03:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xb4d127…
05-23 13:02:01	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xea13cf…
05-23 13:01:36	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xfe0275…
05-23 12:55:36	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0x6ef2e4…