Worse-Theory — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

41.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$96

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-06

last 05-14 22:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

88% 38% $-9

Sports

10% 50% +$2

Other

2% 0% $-3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up		+6	$3	80¢	$4	+$1	05-14 22:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	4	$15	11	10	+0	Down	$-0	05-14 02:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	2	$7	6	6	+0	open	—	05-14 21:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	2	$7	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	05-14 05:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	2	$7	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	05-14 02:20
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)	1	$5	12	0	+12	San Francisco Giants	+$7	05-12 23:52
Lakers vs. Thunder	1	$5	36	0	+36	Thunder	$-5	05-06 00:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	4	$4	3	3	-0	Down	+$0	05-13 22:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	2	$4	8	0	+8	Up	$-4	05-14 04:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	1	$4	0	4	-4	open	—	05-14 15:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	1	$3	6	0	+6	open	—	05-14 22:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	1	$3	6	0	+6	open	—	05-14 22:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	05-14 15:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	1	$3	4	0	+4	open	—	05-14 13:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	1	$3	0	4	-4	Down	$-2	05-14 01:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	1	$2	0	3	-3	Down	$-0	05-14 01:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	05-13 23:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	1	$2	4	0	+4	Up	$-2	05-14 03:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	1	$2	4	0	+4	Down	$-2	05-13 23:49
Set Handicap: Blockx (-1.5) vs Cina (+1.5)	1	$2	0	4	-4	Cina	$-3	05-06 20:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	1	$2	0	2	-2	Down	$-0	05-13 23:38
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	1	$2	0	2	-2	open	—	05-14 19:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	1	$2	0	6	-6	open	—	05-14 21:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	1	$1	0	2	-2	Up	+$1	05-13 20:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	1	$1	10	0	+10	Down	$-1	05-08 04:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	05-14 18:37
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	05-14 20:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	05-14 19:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	05-14 19:47
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	05-14 20:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	1	$1	0	6	-6	open	—	05-14 16:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 22:42:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x6e02b4…
05-14 22:02:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x231152…
05-14 21:37:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	SELL	6	26¢	$2	0x96bd57…
05-14 21:32:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	SELL	6	74¢	$4	0x126d0b…
05-14 21:31:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x02285c…
05-14 20:33:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x11c460…
05-14 20:27:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x753b2a…
05-14 20:19:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	4	9¢	$0	0xa0bb6a…
05-14 20:03:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xd28c83…
05-14 19:54:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0xfd1a90…
05-14 19:52:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xea1279…
05-14 19:47:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x6f93d1…
05-14 18:37:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x632fbb…
05-14 16:36:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	SELL	6	12¢	$1	0xe55e33…
05-14 15:23:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x5b1876…
05-14 15:00:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	SELL	4	80¢	$4	0xe25b19…
05-14 13:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0xe15def…
05-14 05:51:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0x2fc3f6…
05-14 05:50:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x7da5ed…
05-14 04:40:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x7ac9e5…
05-14 04:40:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x7ca19b…
05-14 03:11:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x7f8e41…
05-14 02:20:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	SELL	6	58¢	$4	0x7258eb…
05-14 02:20:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x5be527…
05-14 02:14:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xae6bd8…
05-14 02:14:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x77e552…
05-14 02:14:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xfb6d2d…
05-14 02:13:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xe90505…
05-14 01:29:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	4	58¢	$3	0xc4a1c4…
05-14 01:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	SELL	3	84¢	$2	0x1174e0…
05-13 23:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x3a4e83…
05-13 23:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	2	79¢	$2	0xb0dccc…
05-13 23:20:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x0c497f…
05-13 23:20:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xf1fc0d…
05-13 22:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xefee2f…
05-13 22:03:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x3fe286…
05-13 22:01:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xaeacce…
05-13 22:01:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0xcda09a…
05-13 20:38:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0xaa7162…
05-12 23:52:18	Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)	San Francisco Giants	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xc6d621…
05-08 04:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x9f4bd5…
05-06 20:20:31	Set Handicap: Blockx (-1.5) vs Cina (+1.5)	Cina	SELL	4	41¢	$2	0x1a429d…
05-06 00:53:06	Lakers vs. Thunder	Lakers	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x6de9f5…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Good-Natured-Angora 0x6748…ee08	28	$660	152	05-14 22:44
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	27	$5.51K	175	05-14 22:44
Upset-Sight 0xe022…6603	25	$5.06K	460	05-14 22:44
Rash-Alternative 0xf353…6685	25	$2.67K	114	05-14 22:42
Novel-Morbid 0x4766…5a03	25	$2.31K	226	05-14 22:42
Equal-Renaissance 0x1c4e…4150	25	$1.35K	304	05-14 22:42
Slight-Goodnight 0x6088…f361	24	$3.25K	134	05-14 22:42
Aged-Visit 0x2ea2…d3d7	24	$1.73K	119	05-14 22:42