Gleaming-Somebody — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$49

Unrealized P&L

-$18

Hit rate

71.6%

Resolved

126

Trades

314

lifetime

Volume

$10.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

$14

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 08-20 19:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Politics

54% 65% +$217

Other

27% 43% -$278

Crypto

10% 41% -$56

Tech

9% 62% +$80

Sports

0% 0% -$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No		+110	$25	8¢	$8	-$17	08-11 01:03
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes		-50	-$4	11¢	$-5	-$1	08-18 15:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	3	$305	180	180	+0	No	+$47	03-30 21:30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$304	200	200	+0	No	-$16	04-17 17:20
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	3	$263	160	160	+0	Yes	+$43	02-22 15:02
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	8	$263	165	165	+0	No	+$24	04-11 05:10
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	6	$246	160	160	+0	No	+$39	04-14 02:53
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$237	140	140	+0	No	+$38	03-25 20:48
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	3	$233	160	160	+0	Yes	+$32	06-01 11:56
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	4	$214	130	130	+0	No	+$22	04-24 11:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$212	170	170	+0	No	+$42	06-13 22:09
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	3	$212	130	130	+0	No	+$14	04-21 20:06
iran leadership change by march 31	2	$209	130	130	+0	No	+$48	03-30 21:31
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	3	$209	140	140	+0	No	-$4	04-07 10:28
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	4	$208	130	130	+0	No	+$39	04-24 11:56
will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	3	$167	100	100	+0	No	+$31	07-28 13:45
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	2	$164	100	100	+0	No	+$27	04-25 21:36
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	4	$161	110	110	+0	No	+$30	05-23 20:38
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	2	$156	100	100	+0	No	+$0	07-01 08:34
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$151	100	100	+0	No	+$17	04-06 20:33
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	2	$150	90	90	+0	No	+$26	05-12 16:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$147	160	160	+0	No	-$26	04-15 13:48
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	2	$146	90	90	+0	No	+$29	05-20 10:57
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	2	$145	100	100	+0	No	+$41	08-20 19:31
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$136	110	110	+0	No	+$4	05-23 20:39
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	4	$136	110	110	+0	No	+$40	07-14 08:59
will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	6	$136	100	100	+0	Yes	+$20	03-15 20:16
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$133	90	90	+0	Yes	+$36	05-23 21:11
Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	5	$132	122	122	+0	Yes	-$9	05-23 07:46
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	6	$122	150	150	+0	No	-$47	04-15 14:45
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$120	170	0	+170	No	+$50	04-27 18:02
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	5	$119	140	140	+0	Yes	-$44	05-10 14:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-20 19:31:15	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x11de33…
08-18 15:15:12	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x0a3b90…
08-18 15:14:19	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	70	98¢	$68	0x3ce3f7…
08-11 01:03:58	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	110	23¢	$25	0x4835d7…
07-28 13:45:11	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x254827…
07-22 21:12:42	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693 459	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x6d45de…
07-20 11:38:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	83	44¢	$37	0x656843…
07-20 11:35:40	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	27	44¢	$12	0x4594d3…
07-17 21:37:24	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	180	19¢	$34	0x0ea9aa…
07-15 17:40:41	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	70	54¢	$38	0x6be164…
07-15 13:16:52	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x2ef40b…
07-15 13:04:59	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	94	68¢	$64	0x03b32c…
07-14 08:59:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	80	80¢	$64	0x5490ce…
07-14 08:46:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	30	80¢	$24	0x96cfd7…
07-08 09:04:44	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x6e2a4e…
07-08 03:57:37	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x32af3b…
07-08 03:35:20	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0xb5103b…
07-08 01:19:37	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x841966…
07-08 01:18:43	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0xa8fbcc…
07-08 00:45:16	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x75e035…
07-07 19:02:31	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	200	22¢	$44	0x00bfcf…
07-07 13:38:05	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x97d1fa…
07-06 12:32:11	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x245eee…
07-03 16:56:11	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	42	44¢	$18	0x540904…
07-03 16:56:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	68	44¢	$30	0xfae561…
07-02 08:33:16	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	230	13¢	$30	0x879179…
07-01 08:34:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	100	78¢	$78	0x1936f7…
07-01 08:12:47	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	74	55¢	$41	0x8e13a1…
07-01 07:25:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x7a65e0…
06-22 15:44:14	israel closes its airspace by july 31	Yes	BUY	180	14¢	$25	0xd8ca95…
06-19 23:26:19	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	14	97¢	$14	0xed91c0…
06-19 22:30:59	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	18	97¢	$18	0xf9743c…
06-19 22:30:52	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xbf8f81…
06-19 22:30:46	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0x8afd30…
06-19 22:30:32	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x75be7e…
06-19 22:30:28	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x729b05…
06-19 22:30:28	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x57fe37…
06-19 20:28:20	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	160	28¢	$45	0x0f93d6…
06-18 21:26:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	120	31¢	$37	0x360ea9…
06-15 21:30:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xd11500…
06-14 18:55:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	17	44¢	$8	0xf42eba…
06-14 11:46:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	103	44¢	$45	0xa6ef95…
06-13 22:09:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	170	75¢	$128	0xf2fa5d…
06-12 17:21:04	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x24bd07…
06-12 10:56:01	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	110	45¢	$50	0xe088a7…
06-12 10:55:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0x5c0821…
06-11 19:40:06	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0xccf06d…
06-10 17:25:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 17:25 UTC	Up	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0x193fe0…
06-10 17:25:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 17:25 UTC	Up	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x295aa0…
06-10 17:17:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xff56e7…
06-10 17:16:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0x507dc1…
06-10 17:10:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 17:10 UTC	Down	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0x824df3…
06-09 15:51:22	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	70	61¢	$43	0x0e5664…
06-09 10:28:49	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x872df2…
06-09 10:27:40	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	110	2¢	$2	0x0aebf8…
06-09 10:26:51	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	280	1¢	$3	0xa8c8cc…
06-09 10:26:30	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	180	2¢	$3	0x8b7f0d…
06-09 09:49:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 09:45 UTC	Up	SELL	8	15¢	$1	0x92fc14…
06-09 09:46:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x06543a…
06-09 09:27:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 09:25 UTC	Down	SELL	14	36¢	$5	0xf2ee0a…
06-09 09:26:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 09:25 UTC	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x46aa85…
06-09 08:42:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 08:40 UTC	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x4aa842…
06-09 08:41:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 08:40 UTC	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x00e2e6…
06-09 08:41:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 08:40 UTC	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa54671…
06-09 08:37:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 08:35 UTC	Down	SELL	43	69¢	$30	0xa0ff61…
06-09 08:36:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 08:35 UTC	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x962df3…
06-09 08:36:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 08:35 UTC	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x8464ee…
06-09 08:36:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 08:35 UTC	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x186e90…
06-06 10:13:01	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	80	59¢	$47	0x49c93d…
06-05 23:18:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	40	28¢	$11	0xddfb91…
06-05 23:11:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0xfcd0e5…
06-05 23:11:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0xf69ac0…
06-05 23:11:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x285423…
06-05 23:11:25	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x7dc60c…
06-05 23:11:25	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x69ecca…
06-05 23:11:25	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x5b7cdb…
06-05 23:11:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x2f76bc…
06-05 23:10:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x3e3252…
06-05 21:22:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x5452be…
06-05 20:52:10	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	60	30¢	$18	0x74d620…
06-05 15:10:09	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	120	36¢	$43	0x8ff8cb…
06-05 13:16:27	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	BUY	130	46¢	$60	0xf7fc3c…
06-05 09:48:31	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	90	47¢	$42	0x24ef0f…
06-05 09:10:45	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xa8a73b…
06-04 14:08:46	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	84	40¢	$33	0xaab295…
06-04 14:00:43	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	21	40¢	$9	0x24e8c7…
06-04 14:00:19	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x4755f9…
06-04 12:44:48	will bitcoin dip to 60k in june 2026	No	SELL	110	34¢	$37	0xb67eda…
06-04 11:16:03	will bitcoin dip to 60k in june 2026	No	BUY	93	23¢	$21	0xb7f049…
06-04 11:10:43	will bitcoin dip to 60k in june 2026	No	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0xfa72f7…
06-04 11:10:40	will bitcoin dip to 60k in june 2026	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd8ffcb…
06-03 20:08:18	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	Yes	BUY	90	56¢	$50	0xd5d806…
06-02 13:47:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	340	1¢	$3	0x30f612…
06-01 23:46:09	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	80	38¢	$30	0x0060f9…
06-01 11:56:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	83¢	$133	0x8eaa41…
06-01 08:23:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	70	46¢	$32	0x434424…
05-31 19:43:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0xaa7daf…
05-31 19:34:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	80	71¢	$57	0x289a1b…
05-30 14:00:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x49218e…
05-30 14:00:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x70c87c…