Realistic-Leverage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$111

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

59.4%

Resolved

171

Trades

209

lifetime

Volume

$1.15K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-29 22:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 39% +$200

Politics

19% 40% -$15

Other

15% 23% -$66

Sports

5% 33% +$5

Pop-Culture

2% 20% -$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes		+143	$10	4¢	$6	-$4	08-23 19:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 68k on august 19 2026	2	$217	257	257	+0	Yes	+$213	08-19 15:46
bitcoin above 66k on august 19 2026	2	$108	104	104	+0	Yes	+$98	08-19 15:46
will bitcoin dip to 75k in august 2026	1	$50	75	0	+75	No	-$50	08-22 12:26
bitcoin up or down on august 19 2026	2	$37	27	27	+0	Up	+$17	08-19 15:47
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	5	$30	47	31	+16	Yes	+$2	01-30 12:28
will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve by january 31 2026 849 849 957 245	4	$25	60	46	+14	Yes	+$11	01-30 11:12
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$22	38	38	+0	No	+$2	03-09 20:38
will ethereum dip to 2300 in august 2026	1	$20	37	0	+37	No	-$20	08-22 12:29
will ethereum dip to 2500 in september 2026 from september 18	1	$20	38	0	+38	No	-$20	09-19 15:00
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	3	$19	36	36	+0	No	-$1	01-23 12:06
will bitcoin reach 75k in march 2026	2	$16	13	13	+0	Yes	+$6	03-04 20:07
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?	2	$15	134	0	+134	No	-$15	04-27 20:06
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	2	$15	11	11	+0	No	+$5	03-23 18:47
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$14	12	12	+0	Yes	$0	03-24 11:42
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$13	13	13	+0	Yes	+$3	03-23 13:37
will the us invade iran by march 31	3	$11	91	22	+69	No	-$7	03-29 21:34
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$11	18	0	+18	Yes	+$7	01-14 09:45
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	3	$11	9	9	+0	No	+$1	04-26 21:55
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	1	$10	22	0	+22	Yes	+$12	07-12 20:37
will bitcoin dip to 72pt5k in august 2026	1	$10	29	0	+29	No	-$10	08-22 12:26
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	1	$10	19	0	+19	No	-$10	02-01 09:29
epl mac bri 2026 01 07 mac	1	$10	14	0	+14	No	-$10	01-04 22:49
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	1	$10	16	0	+16	Yes	+$6	07-06 19:36
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	1	$10	143	0	+143	open	—	08-23 19:35
israel x iran ceasefire broken by march 31 2026 312 682	1	$10	15	0	+15	Yes	+$5	01-14 10:30
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	1	$9	36	0	+36	Yes	-$9	03-08 19:03
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$8	25	25	+0	No	-$2	03-03 16:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	2	$8	5	5	+0	Up	+$0	04-25 21:12
will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	2	$7	5	5	+0	Yes	+$1	03-29 21:33
Iran leadership change by April 30?	1	$7	23	0	+23	No	-$7	03-24 11:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 22:52:36	Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x145382…
09-19 15:00:41	will ethereum dip to 2500 in september 2026 from september 18	Yes	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0xeceaf2…
09-16 09:12:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x291f9f…
09-09 09:58:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x450b9a…
08-31 05:30:21	ethereum above 2400 on august 31 2026	No	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xf6caa4…
08-31 05:30:00	ethereum above 2500 on august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	63	8¢	$5	0xeae1d2…
08-29 20:13:36	will ethereum dip to 2400 in august 2026 from august 23	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xb3f0af…
08-23 19:41:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x2d3c21…
08-23 19:35:42	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x551dd9…
08-23 19:29:03	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on August 23?	No	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xe829a6…
08-22 12:29:49	will ethereum dip to 2300 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x5f7665…
08-22 12:28:28	ethereum up or down on august 22 2026	Down	BUY	41	12¢	$5	0x7b7719…
08-22 12:26:48	will bitcoin dip to 75k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0x4100bc…
08-22 12:26:06	will bitcoin dip to 72pt5k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x014da8…
08-21 05:29:10	ufc rom2 rei1 2026 08 22 win by submission	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xf07977…
08-21 05:27:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xfdb2e6…
08-21 05:25:09	bitcoin above 70k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x92ac79…
08-19 15:47:10	bitcoin up or down on august 19 2026	Up	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xe76abf…
08-19 15:46:52	bitcoin above 66k on august 19 2026	Yes	SELL	104	99¢	$103	0x38baa6…
08-19 15:46:13	bitcoin above 68k on august 19 2026	Yes	SELL	257	84¢	$215	0x2d5eed…
08-18 20:15:12	bitcoin up or down on august 19 2026	Up	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xbaa779…
08-18 20:14:28	bitcoin above 68k on august 19 2026	Yes	BUY	257	1¢	$2	0xed8c26…
08-18 20:13:27	bitcoin above 66k on august 19 2026	Yes	BUY	104	5¢	$5	0x245cb5…
07-13 19:57:25	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xd3a660…
07-12 20:37:40	Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xe95be7…
07-12 20:37:13	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xd26a2f…
07-06 20:21:07	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 holloway win by ko tko	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xdb0eb1…
07-06 19:37:55	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x0cfad5…
07-06 19:37:16	Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x253c52…
07-06 19:36:44	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x9ddc69…
05-12 19:57:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 13?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xaa186f…
05-06 20:26:23	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x11230a…
05-06 20:26:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xda03cf…
05-06 20:25:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xcf30d8…
04-27 20:07:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x8bf21a…
04-27 20:06:14	Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x80fb11…
04-26 21:55:42	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	1	65¢	$1	0xa8e93a…
04-26 21:55:40	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x2f90ae…
04-26 20:32:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x991269…
04-26 20:12:16	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x636fdb…
04-25 21:20:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xd6775c…
04-25 21:12:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x51d6dc…
04-25 21:11:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xc8815f…
04-25 20:50:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xd8f957…
03-31 20:05:49	will bitcoin reach 72k march 30 april 5	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x83f261…
03-31 20:05:41	will bitcoin dip to 64k march 30 april 5	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xd08bcf…
03-29 21:34:32	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	69	11¢	$7	0x54ccd3…
03-29 21:33:22	will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x188b82…
03-24 11:45:09	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	23	29¢	$7	0xab2512…
03-24 11:42:03	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	12	55¢	$7	0x934e71…
03-23 20:32:09	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xebf0b8…
03-23 20:31:55	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x0060d1…
03-23 20:30:39	bitcoin above 72k on march 24	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xd589a4…
03-23 20:30:11	bitcoin above 70k on march 24	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x0bac1f…
03-23 18:47:31	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0xe6f2de…
03-23 14:06:51	will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x5a6ab2…
03-23 13:51:29	bitcoin above 72k on march 23	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x33b821…
03-23 13:51:21	bitcoin above 70k on march 23	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x644175…
03-23 13:37:25	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	22	9¢	$2	0x894bac…
03-23 13:37:05	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	60¢	$8	0xbb0601…
03-20 14:17:43	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0x38f9ee…
03-20 14:17:21	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x05a271…
03-20 13:59:45	will bitcoin reach 78k march 16 22	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xa52e0c…
03-17 21:27:09	will bitcoin dip to 72k march 16 22	Yes	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xab649d…
03-16 20:54:13	will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on march 17	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xac5ee5…
03-16 20:53:27	bitcoin above 74k on march 17	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x856cd0…
03-16 06:27:03	will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xbc6a1f…
03-16 06:26:25	ethereum above 2300 on march 16	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x6ab58d…
03-16 06:25:35	will bitcoin dip to 73k on march 16	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xf6a518…
03-13 20:51:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 20:50 UTC	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x051d7d…
03-11 22:02:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 22:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x9278d4…
03-11 21:31:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x71fa9e…
03-11 21:25:35	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase march 10 16	No	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x8b42a3…
03-09 20:53:11	will kpop demon hunters win best animated feature film at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xbef3d0…
03-09 20:50:19	will one battle after another win best adapted screenplay at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x054448…
03-09 20:48:57	will leonardo dicaprio win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0x2ac36b…
03-09 20:38:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	38	30¢	$12	0x5452b8…
03-08 19:03:21	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	36	25¢	$9	0x8246b2…
03-08 13:37:59	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x0345ce…
03-05 21:20:31	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x631201…
03-04 21:35:29	will train dreams train dreams win best original song at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	103	1¢	$1	0xe75b14…
03-04 21:35:21	will i lied to you sinners win best original song at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0x0628f4…
03-04 21:34:29	will golden kpop demon hunters win best original song at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xc37b39…
03-04 21:11:43	will another country strike iran by march 7 528	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xe6467d…
03-04 20:07:59	will bitcoin reach 75k in march 2026	Yes	SELL	13	86¢	$11	0xc94be8…
03-04 04:17:21	will gold gc hit high 5400 by end of march	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x1b9dbf…
03-04 04:15:53	epl mac not 2026 03 04 mac	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x59cba0…
03-04 04:14:45	ufc cha1 max1 2026 03 07	Charles Oliveira	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x3ce709…
03-04 04:14:05	ufc rei1 cai2 2026 03 07	Reinier de Ridder	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x117bf2…
03-04 04:05:49	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xd44425…
03-03 16:49:59	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x9c7319…
03-03 16:16:25	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x3a1d01…
03-03 16:14:45	Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	25	14¢	$3	0x02994a…
03-03 14:47:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-03 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x9e023d…
03-02 12:02:41	will bitcoin reach 75k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x816756…
03-02 12:01:37	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x04720a…
03-02 12:00:29	Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x3d8196…
02-22 08:13:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 08:10 UTC	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xff8d83…
02-22 07:58:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 07:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xfdf9a9…
02-05 20:32:23	will bitcoin dip to 60k in february 2026 394 616	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x972cfd…