Realistic-Leverage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

50.0%

Resolved

Trades

178

lifetime

Volume

$592

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 05-06 20:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

38% — —

Crypto

32% 33% +$1

Other

22% — —

Sports

5% — —

Pop-Culture

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	5	$30	47	31	+16	open	—	01-30 12:28
will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve by january 31 2026 849 849 957 245	4	$25	60	46	+14	open	—	01-30 11:12
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$22	38	38	+0	open	—	03-09 20:38
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	3	$19	36	36	+0	open	—	01-23 12:06
will bitcoin reach 75k in march 2026	2	$16	13	13	+0	open	—	03-04 20:07
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?	2	$15	134	0	+134	open	—	04-27 20:06
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	2	$15	11	11	+0	open	—	03-23 18:47
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$14	12	12	+0	open	—	03-24 11:42
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$13	13	13	+0	open	—	03-23 13:37
will the us invade iran by march 31	3	$11	91	22	+69	open	—	03-29 21:34
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$11	18	0	+18	open	—	01-14 09:45
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	3	$11	9	9	+0	open	—	04-26 21:55
epl mac bri 2026 01 07 mac	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	01-04 22:49
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	1	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	02-01 09:29
israel x iran ceasefire broken by march 31 2026 312 682	1	$10	15	0	+15	open	—	01-14 10:30
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	1	$9	36	0	+36	open	—	03-08 19:03
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$8	25	25	+0	open	—	03-03 16:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	04-25 21:12
will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	03-29 21:33
Iran leadership change by April 30?	1	$7	23	0	+23	open	—	03-24 11:45
will trump say federal reserve 4 times during fed chair announcement	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	01-30 16:21
ufc jus3 pad 2026 01 24	1	$6	17	0	+17	open	—	01-10 11:36
will gold gc hit high 5400 by end of march	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	03-04 04:17
bitcoin above 72k on march 24	1	$5	20	0	+20	open	—	03-23 20:30
epl eve wol 2026 01 07 eve	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	01-07 10:36
will another country strike iran by march 7 528	1	$5	31	0	+31	open	—	03-04 21:11
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	1	$5	17	0	+17	open	—	01-04 21:25
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	1	$5	28	0	+28	open	—	02-03 13:14
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by 777	1	$5	24	0	+24	open	—	02-02 22:31
will golden kpop demon hunters win best original song at the 98th academy awards	1	$5	71	0	+71	open	—	03-04 21:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-06 20:26:23	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x11230a…
05-06 20:26:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xda03cf…
05-06 20:25:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xcf30d8…
04-27 20:07:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x8bf21a…
04-27 20:06:14	Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x80fb11…
04-26 21:55:42	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	1	65¢	$1	0xa8e93a…
04-26 21:55:40	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x2f90ae…
04-26 20:32:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x991269…
04-26 20:12:16	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x636fdb…
04-25 21:20:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xd6775c…
04-25 21:12:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x51d6dc…
04-25 21:11:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xc8815f…
04-25 20:50:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xd8f957…
03-31 20:05:49	will bitcoin reach 72k march 30 april 5	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x83f261…
03-31 20:05:41	will bitcoin dip to 64k march 30 april 5	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xd08bcf…
03-29 21:34:32	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	69	11¢	$7	0x54ccd3…
03-29 21:33:22	will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x188b82…
03-24 11:45:09	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	23	29¢	$7	0xab2512…
03-24 11:42:03	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	12	55¢	$7	0x934e71…
03-23 20:32:09	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xebf0b8…
03-23 20:31:55	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x0060d1…
03-23 20:30:39	bitcoin above 72k on march 24	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xd589a4…
03-23 20:30:11	bitcoin above 70k on march 24	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x0bac1f…
03-23 18:47:31	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0xe6f2de…
03-23 14:06:51	will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x5a6ab2…
03-23 13:51:29	bitcoin above 72k on march 23	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x33b821…
03-23 13:51:21	bitcoin above 70k on march 23	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x644175…
03-23 13:37:25	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	22	9¢	$2	0x894bac…
03-23 13:37:05	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	60¢	$8	0xbb0601…
03-20 14:17:43	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0x38f9ee…
03-20 14:17:21	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x05a271…
03-20 13:59:45	will bitcoin reach 78k march 16 22	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xa52e0c…
03-17 21:27:09	will bitcoin dip to 72k march 16 22	Yes	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xab649d…
03-16 20:54:13	will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on march 17	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xac5ee5…
03-16 20:53:27	bitcoin above 74k on march 17	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x856cd0…
03-16 06:27:03	will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xbc6a1f…
03-16 06:26:25	ethereum above 2300 on march 16	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x6ab58d…
03-16 06:25:35	will bitcoin dip to 73k on march 16	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xf6a518…
03-13 20:51:21	btc updown 5m 1773435000	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x051d7d…
03-11 22:02:37	btc updown 5m 1773266400	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x9278d4…
03-11 21:31:01	btc updown 5m 1773264600	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x71fa9e…
03-11 21:25:35	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase march 10 16	No	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x8b42a3…
03-09 20:53:11	will kpop demon hunters win best animated feature film at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xbef3d0…
03-09 20:50:19	will one battle after another win best adapted screenplay at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x054448…
03-09 20:48:57	will leonardo dicaprio win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0x2ac36b…
03-09 20:38:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	38	30¢	$12	0x5452b8…
03-08 19:03:21	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	36	25¢	$9	0x8246b2…
03-08 13:37:59	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x0345ce…
03-05 21:20:31	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x631201…
03-04 21:35:29	will train dreams train dreams win best original song at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	103	1¢	$1	0xe75b14…
03-04 21:35:21	will i lied to you sinners win best original song at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0x0628f4…
03-04 21:34:29	will golden kpop demon hunters win best original song at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xc37b39…
03-04 21:11:43	will another country strike iran by march 7 528	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xe6467d…
03-04 20:07:59	will bitcoin reach 75k in march 2026	Yes	SELL	13	86¢	$11	0xc94be8…
03-04 04:17:21	will gold gc hit high 5400 by end of march	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x1b9dbf…
03-04 04:15:53	epl mac not 2026 03 04 mac	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x59cba0…
03-04 04:14:45	ufc cha1 max1 2026 03 07	Charles Oliveira	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x3ce709…
03-04 04:14:05	ufc rei1 cai2 2026 03 07	Reinier de Ridder	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x117bf2…
03-04 04:05:49	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xd44425…
03-03 16:49:59	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x9c7319…
03-03 16:16:25	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x3a1d01…
03-03 16:14:45	Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	25	14¢	$3	0x02994a…
03-03 14:47:35	btc updown 15m 1772549100	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x9e023d…
03-02 12:02:41	will bitcoin reach 75k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x816756…
03-02 12:01:37	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x04720a…
03-02 12:00:29	Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x3d8196…
02-22 08:13:56	btc updown 5m 1771747800	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xff8d83…
02-22 07:58:08	btc updown 5m 1771746900	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xfdf9a9…
02-05 20:32:23	will bitcoin dip to 60k in february 2026 394 616	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x972cfd…
02-03 13:14:42	will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x1a45e1…
02-02 22:31:26	will trump admin release any more epstein related files by 777	No	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x315408…
02-02 21:14:00	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	No	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x131e23…
02-02 14:02:34	us strike on somalia by february 7	No	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0x95b6a1…
02-02 11:56:22	bitcoin above 78k on february 2	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xbc98a7…
02-01 23:22:08	will golden ejae and mark sonnenblick win song of the year at the 68th annual grammy awards	No	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x558be8…
02-01 22:08:10	epl sun bur 2026 02 02 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x87bbe4…
02-01 09:34:40	us strike on somalia by february 7	No	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0x491465…
02-01 09:29:10	will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x8a54c1…
02-01 09:15:14	epl not cry 2026 02 01 draw	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x2f09cc…
01-31 22:43:20	will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x88db6e…
01-31 22:10:00	ufc tai1 tal2 2026 01 31	Tuivasa	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x0bee7c…
01-31 21:32:14	ufc dan6 ben8 2026 01 31	Hooker	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xfea5cf…
01-30 16:51:10	epl lee ars 2026 01 31 ars	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x0aee3e…
01-30 16:21:28	will trump say federal reserve 4 times during fed chair announcement	No	SELL	5	89¢	$5	0x3134a8…
01-30 12:28:18	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x784ad7…
01-30 12:27:42	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	SELL	8	69¢	$5	0xf69da3…
01-30 11:50:44	will trump say federal reserve 4 times during fed chair announcement	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xc884b8…
01-30 11:12:10	will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve by january 31 2026 849 849 957 245	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xdd8b3e…
01-29 13:50:34	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	SELL	23	47¢	$11	0x932e67…
01-29 13:48:00	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x5f32e0…
01-28 06:25:05	will powell say median during january press conference 776	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x7a2a85…
01-25 22:22:38	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xd30581…
01-25 20:24:32	bitcoin up or down on january 26	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xc9a732…
01-23 22:20:22	trump approval up or down this week 921	Up	BUY	6	58¢	$3	0xe6ee2e…
01-23 12:49:30	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xbb4911…
01-23 12:45:52	will frankenstein win exactly 1 award at the oscars	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xa16f50…
01-23 12:45:18	will sinners win 3 or fewer awards at the oscars	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xf90201…
01-23 12:44:42	will frankenstein win no awards at the oscars	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x21b8fd…
01-23 12:18:06	btc updown 15m 1769170500	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x623c28…
01-23 12:16:06	bitcoin up or down on january 23	Up	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x370b2b…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	68	$676.1K	14,241	05-10 08:22
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	67	$9.65K	1,824	05-11 02:11
Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389	66	$277.4K	33,812	04-08 04:37
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	65	$23.2K	5,894	04-16 23:32
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	64	$124.2K	11,890	03-28 06:14
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	59	$13.6M	16,790	04-30 23:37
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	59	$77.7K	691	05-10 16:57
(anonymous) 0x99bc…4f35	55	$23.8K	1,300	04-27 15:05