Smooth-Spectrum — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$86

Unrealized P&L

+$541

Hit rate

69.4%

Resolved

Trades

287

lifetime

Volume

$2.99K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$623

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-25

last 11-04 14:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Other

72% 38% +$30

Tech

22% 100% +$52

Sports

6% 29% +$5

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes		+1,000	-$8	58¢	$576	+$583	11-04 14:39
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI		+639	$90	8¢	$48	-$42	10-27 13:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	42	$649	2,173	1,173	+1,000	open	—	11-04 14:39
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	58	$366	2,417	1,778	+639	open	—	10-27 13:37
will a chinese company have one of the top 5 ai models by december 31	2	$208	161	161	+0	Yes	+$8	07-19 03:58
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	2	$204	111	111	+0	open	—	07-05 15:16
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	3	$172	112	112	+0	No	+$52	06-12 21:49
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	8	$134	78	78	+0	open	—	06-13 12:57
will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	2	$104	132	132	+0	open	—	07-19 03:57
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	3	$79	45	45	+0	open	—	09-22 07:03
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	2	$67	217	0	+217	No	-$67	05-29 22:59
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$66	165	165	+0	Yes	+$16	07-19 21:03
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$63	272	272	+0	No	+$11	07-15 20:15
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	9	$58	156	81	+75	No	$0	08-30 10:46
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	4	$53	39	39	+0	England	+$25	07-18 23:06
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	9	$51	451	451	+0	open	—	10-21 14:06
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	7	$43	123	123	+0	No	+$3	06-17 21:52
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?	3	$37	27	27	+0	Yes	+$17	07-07 02:00
Will England win on 2026-07-05?	3	$32	26	26	+0	Yes	+$12	07-06 01:40
fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 spread home 2pt5	2	$30	20	20	+0	France	+$6	06-30 22:34
Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?	6	$28	87	87	+0	No	-$21	08-06 13:46
fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 spread away 1pt5	2	$25	17	17	+0	Norway	+$5	06-16 23:47
fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 total 1pt5	2	$22	20	20	+0	Under	+$2	07-04 22:43
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	2	$21	91	91	+0	open	—	08-06 13:47
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	2	$20	30	0	+30	Yes	+$10	06-23 15:09
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	3	$20	48	0	+48	Yes	+$28	06-23 00:16
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	2	$20	13	13	+0	No	$0	06-17 20:05
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$18	7,167	0	+7,167	No	-$18	06-28 03:12
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 total 2pt5	2	$18	13	13	+0	Over	+$8	07-06 01:53
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	3	$15	44	22	+22	No	-$5	07-09 12:48
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-16?	2	$14	11	11	+0	Yes	+$7	08-16 15:17
fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 total 3pt5	3	$14	30	17	+14	Under	-$4	06-30 01:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 14:39:09	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	50¢	$6	0x104817…
10-27 13:37:41	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	53	7¢	$4	0x078b76…
10-27 02:46:21	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x4bd1b1…
10-27 01:59:32	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0xa12120…
10-27 01:59:18	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0xa4b670…
10-26 15:30:14	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	42	7¢	$3	0xf3c4ef…
10-23 12:50:20	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0x5ff700…
10-23 12:50:20	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	43	34¢	$15	0x4c89fa…
10-23 12:50:20	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0x4b3bf8…
10-23 12:50:20	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	517	34¢	$178	0x489440…
10-21 14:06:57	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	314	2¢	$6	0xd2b151…
10-06 05:41:42	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	314	5¢	$16	0x615af4…
10-05 05:48:16	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	SELL	200	8¢	$16	0xf4f0cd…
10-02 18:01:33	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	SELL	3	12¢	$0	0x7a5d10…
10-01 00:16:14	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	59	16¢	$9	0xdf89cc…
10-01 00:04:35	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0x13baa2…
09-30 20:34:17	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	SELL	30	12¢	$4	0xc9d8cf…
09-30 20:02:08	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x0efad1…
09-30 17:20:36	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x08fdd1…
09-30 15:40:32	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x22286e…
09-22 07:05:40	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	351	15¢	$53	0xa52de8…
09-22 07:03:09	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	No	SELL	45	93¢	$42	0xd7781a…
09-19 14:54:20	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xfbba77…
09-17 15:32:57	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	SELL	234	10¢	$23	0x7bfac5…
09-13 22:39:28	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	No	BUY	39	83¢	$32	0x07f214…
09-13 09:33:45	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x5be66b…
09-12 05:37:48	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xa5b1c3…
09-12 02:49:07	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x8da4b3…
09-10 13:38:21	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	216	15¢	$32	0x60eaf0…
09-10 03:54:40	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0xc376c0…
09-09 18:33:03	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0xee239e…
09-04 14:20:40	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	31	13¢	$4	0xb943da…
09-04 14:15:01	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	184	15¢	$28	0x5b081c…
09-03 02:03:48	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	14¢	$4	0x6a4d12…
09-03 02:03:24	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xece78a…
09-03 02:02:46	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	SELL	179	5¢	$9	0x7aa5f8…
09-01 14:39:57	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	132	14¢	$18	0x4615ec…
09-01 14:39:33	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	SELL	330	6¢	$20	0x325d02…
08-30 10:46:55	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x272126…
08-28 16:00:07	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	128	12¢	$15	0xfbcc2f…
08-28 15:59:39	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x77cdd6…
08-28 15:59:27	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	61	12¢	$7	0x555609…
08-28 15:58:34	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	SELL	81	36¢	$29	0x507dec…
08-28 06:47:30	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	59	11¢	$7	0x7d832d…
08-28 06:47:06	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0x09af46…
08-28 05:33:19	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	179	11¢	$20	0x43bdb6…
08-28 05:32:28	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	SELL	271	8¢	$22	0xc632bc…
08-27 13:57:54	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	135	13¢	$18	0x1f2446…
08-26 22:38:16	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	134	16¢	$21	0x3e4e6f…
08-26 17:37:30	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	SELL	386	8¢	$31	0x2701c6…
08-25 22:57:07	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	SELL	80	8¢	$6	0xf05162…
08-25 22:47:15	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	SELL	34	8¢	$3	0xa31374…
08-24 22:25:03	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	BUY	28	25¢	$7	0xfae6d4…
08-24 16:40:40	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xbfeefb…
08-24 15:16:34	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	BUY	39	29¢	$11	0xea7229…
08-24 14:38:06	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	14¢	$6	0xd674e1…
08-24 08:55:28	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	38	11¢	$4	0xd31321…
08-23 16:45:04	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	90	6¢	$5	0x82afdc…
08-23 16:44:57	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	130	7¢	$9	0xca811c…
08-23 10:12:15	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	44	7¢	$3	0x07679c…
08-19 13:17:33	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x4bfd8f…
08-18 21:28:31	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	49	12¢	$6	0xff6494…
08-18 18:08:24	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0xfd2b29…
08-18 07:54:21	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	151	12¢	$18	0xa0e4ee…
08-18 07:12:04	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	16	7¢	$1	0x16111a…
08-18 05:30:16	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x77718c…
08-18 02:44:09	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x5ee1df…
08-18 02:09:52	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	45	7¢	$3	0x824db6…
08-17 16:37:15	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	141	7¢	$10	0x22a095…
08-16 15:31:21	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xeae9d7…
08-16 15:17:31	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-16?	Yes	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0xeed139…
08-16 13:19:10	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-16?	Yes	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0xfe3af1…
08-16 00:05:45	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	26	7¢	$2	0x2e6817…
08-16 00:04:45	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x72e013…
08-16 00:03:24	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x802129…
08-16 00:02:19	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xeab992…
08-16 00:00:27	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x5cc295…
08-15 22:49:30	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x2744bb…
08-15 01:33:24	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x92b8fd…
08-15 01:27:25	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x2652c1…
08-14 06:50:28	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xe0e000…
08-12 15:43:49	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xb0dc92…
08-11 16:30:51	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	0	12¢	$0	0x9e6dc8…
08-11 13:14:03	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	49	12¢	$6	0x95cce5…
08-11 09:29:06	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0xd490d6…
08-11 07:17:16	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	28	14¢	$4	0x2c535d…
08-10 07:22:36	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xbefeee…
08-10 03:29:04	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	54	13¢	$7	0x576766…
08-10 03:10:12	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	58	12¢	$7	0x352081…
08-10 03:09:24	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x40ca6e…
08-09 17:58:36	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x6471b2…
08-08 08:15:15	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x6f6325…
08-08 00:11:15	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0xaf61a2…
08-07 14:30:52	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0xe8dcd1…
08-07 14:10:54	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xeffac2…
08-07 14:09:19	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xa849cc…
08-07 11:29:09	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xa5c6ad…
08-06 13:47:32	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	SELL	91	12¢	$11	0xc577dc…
08-06 13:46:12	Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?	Yes	SELL	87	4¢	$3	0x92eaf0…
08-06 09:59:53	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0xc34997…