Mountainous-Fava — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

51.5%

Resolved

212

Trades

398

lifetime

Volume

$430

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-04-23

last 08-16 03:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 82 days

Categories

Other

63% 47% -$1

Crypto

19% 25% -$28

Politics

9% 71% +$11

Sports

8% 24% -$1

Tech

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	+2	$1	88¢	$2	+$1	07-31 23:15
No one announced as next James Bond?	No	+1	$1	75¢	$1	$0	08-12 22:37
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	+3	$1	24¢	$1	$0	08-15 14:56
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	+2	$1	28¢	$1	$0	07-29 13:20
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	+2	$1	26¢	$0	-$1	08-12 06:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 16?	3	$35	20	20	+0	Yes	+$3	07-16 07:17
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$14	1,500	0	+1,500	No	-$14	06-02 21:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	2	$11	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	04-26 21:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-23 10:30 UTC	2	$5	10	0	+10	Down	$0	04-23 10:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	2	$5	10	0	+10	Down	$0	05-02 15:17
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-23 14:45 UTC	2	$5	10	0	+10	Up	$0	04-23 14:47
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-24 02:15 UTC	2	$5	10	0	+10	Down	+$0	04-24 02:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	2	$5	10	0	+10	Up	+$0	04-29 01:34
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?	2	$5	17	17	+0	Yes	+$3	08-01 01:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	3	$5	10	0	+10	Down	+$0	05-02 20:28
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	2	$5	4	4	+0	No	+$3	08-12 04:15
atp milic justo 2026 07 02	4	$4	5	5	+0	Guido Justo	+$0	07-02 09:14
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	4	$4	3	2	+0	Yes	+$0	07-22 13:13
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	6	$4	2	2	+0	No	+$0	06-15 09:00
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$4	4	4	+0	No	+$2	06-25 05:27
Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	2	$3	2	2	+0	Yes	+$1	08-12 01:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	3	$3	18	3	+14	Up	-$1	05-02 11:24
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	3	$3	3	1	+1	Yes	+$0	07-29 11:41
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.50% and 3.99%?	2	$3	5	5	+0	open	—	08-16 03:42
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	2	$3	3	3	+0	Yes	+$1	08-16 03:43
Will Helen Eliasson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västra Götaland?	2	$3	2	2	+0	No	+$1	08-16 03:43
Will July 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?	3	$3	52	26	+26	No	-$1	07-27 11:12
cs2 ice shk 2026 06 24 game1	2	$2	1	1	+0	Sharks	+$0	06-24 16:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-23 08:45 UTC	2	$2	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	04-23 08:48
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	06-27 22:33
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	2	$2	6	6	+0	No	+$0	08-16 03:44
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 29?	2	$2	2	2	+0	No	+$0	06-28 23:06
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 29?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	06-28 23:06
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	2	$2	2	2	+0	No	+$0	07-04 05:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	05-28 18:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-16 03:44:09	Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	6	22¢	$1	0xd1ae30…
08-16 03:43:30	Will Helen Eliasson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västra Götaland?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x6c6b2c…
08-16 03:43:04	Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0xd8a247…
08-16 03:42:28	Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.50% and 3.99%?	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x5f3a77…
08-15 20:25:03	Will Chen Ying win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x8e0971…
08-15 18:15:58	Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x7cf0a6…
08-15 14:56:45	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x551601…
08-15 14:48:45	swe mja sir 2026 08 15 team total away 2pt5	Under	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xb0d7ca…
08-15 11:33:24	Will Alfred Cannan be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xd35ede…
08-15 05:28:48	Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 4.0% and 4.4%?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x39d614…
08-15 05:10:37	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x3e89b4…
08-15 04:56:10	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x689cdf…
08-15 03:07:07	will tropical storm lala make landfall in hawaii as a hurricane 1786718341036	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x22b85b…
08-12 22:37:19	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x93f331…
08-12 13:48:33	Will Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x2ff858…
08-12 06:48:55	Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x91ce35…
08-12 04:42:42	Will Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x1d6cec…
08-12 04:15:57	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	4	88¢	$4	0x748e04…
08-12 02:21:24	Will Helen Eliasson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västra Götaland?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x55634d…
08-12 01:22:09	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xfed42d…
08-12 01:21:27	Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xc9074b…
08-11 20:59:45	Will Manuela Schwesig be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x3e3763…
08-11 18:18:13	Christopher Luxon out by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x877a19…
08-11 17:59:57	ucl bog usg 2026 08 11 team to advance	RU Saint-Gilloise	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xa93bfe…
08-10 21:27:58	Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x8b92f4…
08-10 20:49:10	Will CD Santa Clara vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x33766a…
08-10 20:37:39	isl1 frr krr 2026 08 10 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x2012be…
08-10 20:33:00	isl1 frr krr 2026 08 10 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xd691c6…
08-10 20:26:52	Will Lise-Lotte Bensköld Olsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x01c72a…
08-10 13:41:55	Will Elin Norén be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Dalarna?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x6d601e…
08-10 13:10:04	Will Rachel De Basso be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x25c692…
08-10 11:40:25	Will August 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x066123…
08-10 11:35:03	Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x3dbb8a…
08-10 09:26:06	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x3b838a…
08-10 08:02:04	Will Alfonso Sánchez García win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x8db3f7…
08-10 00:07:49	Will Ulises Mejía Haro win the 2027 Zacatecas Governor Election?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x02b26f…
08-02 03:59:32	Will Adam Murphy be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x7e36cd…
08-02 03:32:45	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x10faa5…
08-01 23:40:23	Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xf1b7e4…
08-01 23:29:00	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x4b6e80…
08-01 08:48:00	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xe7bb21…
08-01 05:10:21	Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xc02742…
08-01 01:40:11	Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?	No	SELL	17	23¢	$4	0xbc024f…
07-31 23:51:33	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in July?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x4589cf…
07-31 23:15:27	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6b98eb…
07-31 21:38:42	Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xa75e23…
07-31 20:48:20	Will Haley Stevens win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x51a1a4…
07-31 15:00:12	Will TD Ierlan win the 2026 PLL Face-Off Player of the Year?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xfa1443…
07-31 12:37:26	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x32595d…
07-31 11:57:30	Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x508bf1…
07-31 11:24:54	Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x9ce092…
07-31 10:21:26	Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xa3693b…
07-31 05:35:26	will waymo launch in minneapolis mn by december 31 2026 20260626203025654	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x9035f1…
07-31 03:59:44	Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x8e5f9e…
07-31 01:34:08	Will Netflix win the most Emmys?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x8f0974…
07-31 01:19:36	Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xa4578c…
07-31 00:36:45	Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.50% and 3.99%?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xe147af…
07-30 20:36:56	Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x86f777…
07-30 20:08:50	uel and hif 2026 07 30 team to advance	Hammarby Fotboll	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xaa7feb…
07-29 13:20:17	Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x15ef69…
07-29 11:41:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x556a07…
07-28 22:30:50	Will Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x91a49a…
07-28 05:01:09	Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xc3be0a…
07-28 00:21:36	Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x896842…
07-27 19:50:09	Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xe05c8d…
07-27 19:31:27	Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x7b9861…
07-27 15:19:46	Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1%?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xce2bbe…
07-27 15:04:27	Will AD San Carlos vs. Escorpiones de Belén end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xc34704…
07-27 11:24:58	Will Frank Klingebiel win the next Salzgitter mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x3e9292…
07-27 11:12:31	Will July 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x23197c…
07-27 05:59:34	Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xfcedad…
07-27 00:14:36	Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 TOUR Championship?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xcb4941…
07-26 21:20:25	will waymo launch in washington dc by december 31 2026 20260626201631465	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xdee41b…
07-26 18:30:21	Will Viking FK win on 2026-07-26?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xb00590…
07-26 14:06:19	sbux quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 28 2026 0pt69	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xa5dd0c…
07-26 12:48:12	will douard philippe advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x66d6ca…
07-26 05:48:22	Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xd5578e…
07-25 23:04:16	nwsl bos kcc 2026 07 25 second half team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4b9560…
07-25 18:34:45	Will FK Haugesund win on 2026-07-25?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x8dbb04…
07-25 14:15:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 14:10 UTC	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x6c7738…
07-25 13:21:24	will paul seixas finish top 3 in the 2026 tour de france 20260702210405686	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x35564b…
07-25 12:20:01	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 12:15 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x10c351…
07-25 12:15:03	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 12:10 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x16db47…
07-25 12:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x08f7fe…
07-25 11:35:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x6d61bb…
07-25 11:15:03	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 11:10 UTC	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xe59e16…
07-25 09:35:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 09:30 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe032aa…
07-25 01:40:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 01:35 UTC	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xe93dc3…
07-24 22:25:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa59807…
07-24 19:55:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 19:50 UTC	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xebcc36…
07-24 19:45:04	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 19:40 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xcaa440…
07-23 17:10:10	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2b4faf…
07-22 16:43:03	spx up or down on july 22 2026	Down	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0xbf6586…
07-22 16:41:46	spx up or down on july 22 2026	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x296973…
07-22 13:13:46	Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	Yes	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x81280d…
07-22 00:44:22	Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x1ac8be…
07-21 12:50:42	Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	Yes	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xfde595…
07-21 09:34:22	Will July 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?	Yes	SELL	26	2¢	$1	0x36ef78…
07-21 03:53:04	wnba wsh gsv 2026 07 20	Golden State Valkyries	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x317b6f…
07-21 01:24:13	Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x5dc8f3…