Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.01K

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

67.6%

Resolved

281

Trades

1,149

lifetime

Volume

$18.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$117

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-14 09:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 87 days

Categories

Politics

34% 37% +$245

Crypto

33% 36% -$771

Other

31% 44% -$277

Tech

2% 56% -$201

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 285 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by November 30, 2026?	No	+77	$32	60¢	$47	+$15	11-04 22:28
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+300	$26	7¢	$22	-$4	11-04 20:40
Next Russia-Ukraine senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	+27	$15	56¢	$15	+$0	11-14 09:23
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+10	$10	98¢	$10	+$0	09-26 14:30
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	+10	$7	97¢	$10	+$3	09-26 15:31
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	+11	$5	80¢	$9	+$4	10-08 06:04
US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+28	$2	10¢	$3	+$1	11-13 22:30
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+40	$14	4¢	$1	-$13	10-29 20:25
Will the 120th Congress Speaker be elected on the first ballot?	No	+10	$2	4¢	$0	-$2	11-04 22:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	36	$1.3K	1,224	1,214	+10	No	+$356	08-17 10:34
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	13	$1.1K	1,714	882	+833	No	+$28	09-16 17:35
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	3	$786	409	409	+0	Yes	+$26	11-04 04:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	7	$691	1,739	1,239	+500	Down	+$81	10-02 18:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	4	$643	743	558	+185	Up	+$43	10-02 18:48
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	4	$545	533	100	+433	Yes	+$52	10-27 18:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	23	$529	395	395	+0	Down	+$261	10-02 21:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	4	$507	351	351	+0	Down	+$107	10-02 18:42
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	33	$411	424	419	+5	Yes	+$189	10-03 18:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	5	$406	2,193	813	+1,379	Down	-$254	10-02 21:24
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	4	$398	220	220	+0	No	+$22	10-23 13:29
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	15	$372	2,420	2,420	+0	open	—	10-02 21:06
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	11	$325	380	370	+10	No	+$86	08-09 16:43
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	23	$289	350	194	+156	No	+$34	07-29 06:45
us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	4	$260	200	100	+100	No	+$8	07-31 18:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	2	$250	1,210	0	+1,210	Up	-$250	10-02 21:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	4	$250	814	0	+814	Up	-$250	10-02 18:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	3	$225	1,012	0	+1,012	Up	-$225	10-02 18:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	16	$221	183	183	+0	Up	+$141	10-02 16:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	2	$200	755	0	+755	Down	-$200	10-02 18:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	1	$200	800	0	+800	Down	+$600	10-02 21:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	30	$194	600	104	+496	Down	-$190	10-02 21:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	6	$181	250	250	+0	open	—	09-25 16:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	14	$180	1,048	1,048	+0	No	-$90	09-10 04:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	5	$180	662	0	+662	Down	-$180	10-02 19:13
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	4	$172	216	0	+216	No	+$43	09-13 17:34
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	10	$165	196	196	+0	No	-$86	09-22 18:01
Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?	8	$161	89	89	+0	No	+$17	10-02 17:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	23	$160	500	0	+500	Down	-$160	10-02 21:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	14	$156	700	0	+700	Up	-$156	10-02 21:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 09:23:02	Next Russia-Ukraine senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0xecd919…
11-13 22:30:18	US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	7¢	$2	0x024b7b…
11-13 03:48:51	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x2dcef8…
11-11 09:36:31	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 26?	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x963fec…
11-10 19:48:51	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	BUY	53	9¢	$5	0x8e6991…
11-07 03:08:51	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	123	65¢	$80	0x8f2e3e…
11-07 00:53:28	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0x86425f…
11-07 00:53:10	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	79	76¢	$60	0x9d65f1…
11-07 00:49:55	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	68	77¢	$53	0xc89b18…
11-07 00:37:07	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	99¢	$42	0xdf367d…
11-04 22:50:10	Will the 120th Congress Speaker be elected on the first ballot?	No	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xfca030…
11-04 22:28:30	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	77	41¢	$32	0x0b44ec…
11-04 21:54:49	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	94¢	$40	0xbbf800…
11-04 21:11:42	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x7a6479…
11-04 20:48:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0x79f66f…
11-04 20:40:22	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x405f0d…
11-04 04:11:01	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	323	100¢	$322	0xf16afd…
11-04 00:38:34	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0xf3b296…
11-04 00:38:21	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0x152ede…
11-04 00:34:31	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	86	98¢	$84	0x230984…
11-03 23:49:03	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	346	13¢	$45	0x3e059d…
11-03 10:25:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x333825…
11-03 10:18:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0xe1a0f9…
11-03 10:18:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	47	15¢	$7	0xa0b1bc…
11-03 09:49:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	15	15¢	$2	0x5ffd35…
11-03 09:48:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	103	15¢	$15	0x9d0c96…
11-02 02:50:03	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	97¢	$20	0x4a16ad…
11-02 01:06:37	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0xb20bed…
11-02 00:22:03	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	39	39¢	$15	0xa472c0…
11-02 00:22:01	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	84	46¢	$38	0x28a8b4…
11-01 20:02:58	US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x7a61f5…
10-31 20:27:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x50f583…
10-31 19:39:25	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	747	0¢	$1	0xdcb527…
10-31 19:36:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	253	0¢	$0	0xdf5a14…
10-31 15:26:21	Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?	Yes	BUY	99	5¢	$5	0x85fda4…
10-31 15:24:40	Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?	Yes	BUY	101	5¢	$5	0xbdfbb7…
10-30 22:02:19	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	180	0¢	$1	0x31a883…
10-30 22:00:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x61f735…
10-30 18:58:48	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x234bbe…
10-29 23:04:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xc66a66…
10-29 23:02:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	180	8¢	$14	0x26d3b6…
10-29 22:59:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	70	28¢	$20	0x8a2b70…
10-29 22:29:43	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0x48d89d…
10-29 20:25:15	Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	36¢	$14	0x0b3151…
10-29 17:39:53	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	409	93¢	$380	0x43a748…
10-29 17:36:41	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	SELL	280	6¢	$16	0xf954a4…
10-29 17:34:14	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	BUY	280	5¢	$14	0x9bacfb…
10-29 13:38:08	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 26?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x01bc04…
10-28 19:16:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x60f74a…
10-28 19:15:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	60	21¢	$13	0x281c4e…
10-27 18:16:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	215	93¢	$200	0xfe41fb…
10-26 18:16:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	219	91¢	$200	0x60eafb…
10-23 13:29:15	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	220	96¢	$210	0x5002fc…
10-22 01:31:53	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	No	BUY	70	10¢	$7	0x771c55…
10-21 23:42:14	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	No	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xc02ed6…
10-21 06:22:39	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0xb800da…
10-20 21:27:32	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	No	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x75c352…
10-20 14:41:30	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	36	85¢	$30	0x35fc60…
10-20 14:32:18	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	64	85¢	$55	0x126881…
10-20 07:30:17	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x243e1c…
10-19 22:57:03	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	55	4¢	$2	0xca59fb…
10-19 20:43:02	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	No	BUY	70	15¢	$10	0x54bcab…
10-19 20:15:33	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	No	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x4e384a…
10-19 11:00:41	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x760fad…
10-19 06:45:36	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x0f073f…
10-17 17:55:27	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0x4a416a…
10-14 10:39:05	will donald trump publicly insult someone on october 28 2026 20261001004229017	No	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x069782…
10-13 14:25:04	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x52978e…
10-11 15:03:58	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	23¢	$12	0x0d20fc…
10-11 13:43:04	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x11bb9f…
10-10 16:18:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	SELL	49	8¢	$4	0x62e56a…
10-10 16:16:01	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xb5a6ea…
10-09 19:14:31	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0x457175…
10-08 06:04:14	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xe52873…
10-08 05:57:20	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x987d1b…
10-08 05:56:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x33dc0d…
10-08 05:55:19	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	31	10¢	$3	0x249432…
10-08 05:52:59	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x90acdb…
10-07 10:58:51	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	45	7¢	$3	0x4912ad…
10-06 04:59:25	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x67d0d0…
10-06 04:58:21	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0x23391e…
10-06 04:57:09	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	112	9¢	$10	0x78b690…
10-06 04:56:49	No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?	Hike 25 bps	SELL	97	17¢	$16	0x3d29ca…
10-06 02:58:21	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xa40811…
10-05 19:34:29	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	22	28¢	$6	0xc61cd2…
10-05 14:23:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x631865…
10-04 19:41:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 19:40 UTC	Up	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x2e6449…
10-04 19:27:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xe1ce17…
10-03 18:24:24	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0x2c8c4d…
10-03 14:20:56	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x1a7c23…
10-03 14:18:38	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 12?	No	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xb7ebb5…
10-02 22:26:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0xd5a269…
10-02 22:26:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	410	24¢	$100	0x308f18…
10-02 22:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	121	8¢	$10	0x405714…
10-02 22:16:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xf26a36…
10-02 22:16:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x1d6b21…
10-02 22:16:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	93	35¢	$33	0x986fde…
10-02 22:13:48	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	No	SELL	69	66¢	$45	0x8f162b…
10-02 22:06:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xec47cc…
10-02 22:06:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xd3999e…