Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$350

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

50.9%

Resolved

Trades

607

lifetime

Volume

$4.50K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$72

4 positions

First seen

2026-10-23

last 10-28 15:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

61% 29% -$197

Politics

18% 37% -$11

Crypto

8% 0% -$5

Tech

6% 0% -$61

Sports

5% 0% -$17

Pop-Culture

2% 0% -$60

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 212 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	+280	$48	16¢	$46	-$2	10-26 18:29
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+20	$5	50¢	$10	+$5	10-26 12:42
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	+80	$14	11¢	$9	-$5	10-27 07:53
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	+20	$5	33¢	$7	+$1	10-27 23:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $22.5M and $24M?	8	$174	180	180	+0	No	+$77	10-26 21:48
Will Gavin Williams lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in strikeouts?	12	$135	339	259	+80	open	—	10-27 07:40
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	6	$132	340	260	+80	open	—	10-27 03:46
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	7	$113	280	280	+0	open	—	10-26 17:54
Will OpenRouter process at least 775T tokens from Oct 26 to Nov 22?	6	$110	220	200	+20	open	—	10-27 03:44
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	7	$107	222	142	+80	open	—	10-27 07:53
Will XRP reach $1.40 in October?	7	$104	200	200	+0	open	—	10-26 17:45
Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	7	$90	100	100	+0	No	+$37	10-26 13:11
Will Solana reach $110 in October?	5	$90	200	200	+0	open	—	10-26 17:53
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in October?	8	$86	200	200	+0	open	—	10-28 08:38
Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	2	$85	80	80	+0	open	—	10-26 14:05
Will PPI YoY be 6.8% or more in October?	6	$81	100	100	+0	open	—	10-28 08:26
Next Israeli government a minority government?	4	$78	80	80	+0	open	—	10-28 13:56
Moody's or S&P downgrades France by November 30, 2026?	6	$77	280	18	+262	open	—	10-28 12:50
Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 3% and 4%?	3	$66	100	100	+0	open	—	10-27 03:46
Will MrBeast hit 524 million subscribers by October 31?	7	$61	280	0	+280	Yes	-$61	10-26 18:29
Will Lamine Yamal finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	5	$55	200	0	+200	Yes	-$55	10-26 18:28
Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 96 km/h or above in October?	7	$53	256	0	+256	open	—	10-26 18:33
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 20-26?	5	$49	260	0	+260	open	—	10-26 18:28
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by October 31?	3	$48	180	0	+180	open	—	10-26 19:03
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?	7	$48	280	0	+280	Yes	-$48	10-26 18:28
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	5	$48	280	0	+280	open	—	10-26 18:29
Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	8	$48	260	0	+260	open	—	10-26 18:30
Will PP win the most seats in Navarre in the 2026 Spanish general election?	5	$46	280	0	+280	open	—	10-26 18:29
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $18M and $19.5M?	4	$45	260	0	+260	open	—	10-26 18:30
Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	3	$45	40	40	+0	No	+$25	10-25 02:27
Will Andrey Gyurov win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	4	$44	40	40	+0	Yes	+$23	10-26 11:42
Will Bert Chen win the next Cowichan Valley British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	5	$42	120	20	+100	open	—	10-26 23:33
Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by November 30, 2026?	4	$42	260	0	+260	No	-$42	10-26 18:30
Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	3	$42	100	20	+80	open	—	10-28 11:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 15:13:35	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x06ef38…
10-28 14:53:28	Will Warsh say "Gold" or "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during October Press Conference?	No	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0x8e2328…
10-28 14:13:17	Will Warsh say "Gold" or "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x262fb0…
10-28 13:56:20	Next Israeli government a minority government?	No	SELL	76	70¢	$53	0x373de1…
10-28 13:39:55	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	6	58¢	$4	0x337347…
10-28 13:15:20	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	14	58¢	$8	0x3e15a9…
10-28 13:13:56	Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?	No	BUY	27	28¢	$8	0xe509be…
10-28 13:07:55	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0xbeacea…
10-28 13:04:23	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xeab936…
10-28 12:50:07	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	44¢	$8	0x9679b8…
10-28 12:39:31	Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 4-5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	19	28¢	$5	0x0e24ff…
10-28 12:39:28	Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 4-5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x91d10f…
10-28 12:31:10	Will Andy Burnham say "Defence" during the next PMQ?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x22a28f…
10-28 12:27:16	Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?	No	BUY	25	28¢	$7	0x2a2d35…
10-28 12:03:50	Will Andy Burnham say "Immigration" during the next PMQ?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x19abf0…
10-28 12:02:14	Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ?	Yes	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x503aee…
10-28 11:46:16	Next Israeli government a minority government?	No	BUY	76	27¢	$20	0x754d17…
10-28 11:41:05	Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x7f10ff…
10-28 11:39:35	Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	80	27¢	$22	0x5cf4b0…
10-28 10:54:04	Will The Democrats win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xbf0855…
10-28 10:53:47	Will Otzma Yehudit win 5.5-6.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x4a3d9b…
10-28 10:24:49	Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xe16e42…
10-28 10:23:43	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xb5a9ab…
10-28 10:10:23	Will GE Vernova (GEV) Q3 orders be above $28B?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xe84676…
10-28 10:10:22	Will GE Vernova (GEV) Q3 orders be above $24B?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xc18439…
10-28 10:10:22	Will GE Vernova (GEV) Q3 orders be above $26B?	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x93bb24…
10-28 10:10:11	Will Ben Rice lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in RBI?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xfcd20e…
10-28 08:41:13	Next Israeli government a minority government?	No	SELL	4	72¢	$3	0x1b74b0…
10-28 08:38:44	Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in October?	Yes	SELL	80	17¢	$14	0xa87801…
10-28 08:33:01	Will The Democrats win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x4b7dd6…
10-28 08:29:14	Will Chloe Foster win the next Waratah–Wynyard mayoral election?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x3fb470…
10-28 08:26:46	Will PPI YoY be 6.8% or more in October?	No	SELL	40	54¢	$22	0x82ffe8…
10-28 08:22:29	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xa0ff53…
10-28 08:18:29	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4.75-5.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xd039d8…
10-28 08:16:07	Will Together win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x7405c4…
10-28 08:12:22	Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xc52be2…
10-28 08:12:01	Will PPI YoY be 6.8% or more in October?	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0xc8b0a6…
10-28 08:05:05	Will The Democrats win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0x570862…
10-28 07:57:31	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	51	26¢	$13	0x66133a…
10-28 07:51:01	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xb03412…
10-28 07:51:01	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x7ac783…
10-28 07:51:01	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x0c45b9…
10-28 07:38:28	next israeli government a minority government	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xc8d37d…
10-28 07:36:55	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	80	27¢	$22	0x119ee3…
10-28 07:36:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	80	26¢	$21	0x8131a0…
10-28 07:35:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	26¢	$0	0xe31c81…
10-28 07:32:44	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	73	26¢	$19	0xceed84…
10-28 07:32:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0x0877f4…
10-28 07:11:31	Will Brett Whiteley win the next Latrobe mayoral election?	No	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0x77aebe…
10-28 06:49:49	Will "GTA VI: The Album" first week sales be at least 200k?	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x084ac1…
10-28 06:34:58	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x98cf97…
10-28 06:03:22	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4.75-5.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x5295fe…
10-28 05:34:53	Will Yashar win 16-18% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xc1d5f9…
10-28 05:33:38	Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x5d2966…
10-28 04:54:28	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xbc6d85…
10-28 04:14:41	Will Ben Rice lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in RBI?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x5a1ed9…
10-28 04:13:16	Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 4% and 6% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x8bc1cc…
10-28 04:09:44	Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xc80d44…
10-28 04:04:40	Will William Contreras lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in hits?	No	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0x4e0ca9…
10-28 04:03:44	Will Brice Turang lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in runs scored?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x8bbcfc…
10-28 04:00:01	Will Together win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xc2cf70…
10-28 03:55:49	Will Yashar win 20-21 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xfbe9fa…
10-28 03:43:01	Will the longest game of the 2026 MLB Postseason last 12+ innings?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x2567f0…
10-28 03:42:12	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x81f1e2…
10-28 03:42:00	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xe896b6…
10-28 03:37:12	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xb95c67…
10-28 03:35:19	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xaaae3a…
10-28 03:35:19	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x0a07b4…
10-28 03:20:15	Will the longest game of the 2026 MLB Postseason last 11+ innings?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x14db53…
10-28 03:03:17	Will Otzma Yehudit win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x9c2d7b…
10-28 03:00:14	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xb6bd0b…
10-28 03:00:14	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x94d877…
10-28 02:57:05	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x97b29c…
10-28 02:56:51	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xfd7e78…
10-28 02:56:51	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xa6165f…
10-28 02:56:51	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x9367a3…
10-28 02:54:17	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x33b2e6…
10-28 02:46:41	Will PPI YoY be 6.8% or more in October?	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0xdce546…
10-28 02:44:33	Will UTJ win fewer than 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	18	72¢	$13	0x9bd86a…
10-28 02:42:27	Will Dems win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x72376b…
10-28 02:42:23	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x0e247a…
10-28 02:41:17	Will United Torah Judaism win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0xcc9a41…
10-28 02:28:38	Will United Torah Judaism win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0x1205b9…
10-28 02:27:15	Will Otzma Yehudit win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xa45316…
10-28 02:22:59	Will Trump say "Cleveland" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	No	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0x41bab6…
10-28 02:04:11	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x4a9c11…
10-28 02:04:06	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xe2eb81…
10-28 02:04:06	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x2c328b…
10-28 02:02:41	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xacb2a9…
10-28 02:02:05	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x6b1997…
10-28 02:01:57	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x6bc01d…
10-28 02:01:54	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x2c418b…
10-28 01:37:20	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x040b26…
10-28 01:02:15	Will Shas win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xb4ede9…
10-28 00:43:57	Will Amcha Yisrael win less than 2.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0xd012bc…
10-28 00:34:03	Will RZP-Zehut win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xf41902…
10-28 00:33:26	Will RZP-Zehut win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x6c2cdd…
10-28 00:23:39	Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of October 26?	Yes	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0xbdde2c…
10-28 00:22:11	Will Together win 11-13 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xb627af…
10-28 00:18:03	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	73	27¢	$20	0xb04e74…