Realized P&L
-$110.0K
Unrealized P&L
—
Hit rate
83.7%
Resolved
31
Trades
1,632
lifetime
Volume
$3.55M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2.18K
Open exposure
—
0 positions
First seen
2026-04-12
last 06-16 15:25
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 22 days
Categories
Politics
91%
70%
-$114,553
Other
9%
50%
+$4,567
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-16).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound. | ||||||||
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 385 | $1.54M | 1,001,964 | 800,677 | +201,287 | No | +$38,098 | 06-01 03:20 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | 37 | $510.3K | 327,381 | 227,144 | +100,236 | No | +$14,601 | 05-27 03:59 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026 | 125 | $338.6K | 208,392 | 150,365 | +58,027 | No | +$8,112 | 06-07 23:56 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 142 | $294.9K | 207,839 | 207,738 | +101 | Yes | -$46,601 | 06-15 13:52 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | 280 | $244.0K | 287,205 | 86,385 | +200,820 | Yes | -$147,480 | 06-14 14:30 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15 | 67 | $239.9K | 125,404 | 125,404 | +0 | No | +$2,822 | 06-06 09:33 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 160 | $124.5K | 176,181 | 77,775 | +98,406 | Yes | +$3,507 | 06-16 15:25 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | 15 | $47.5K | 52,284 | 0 | +52,284 | No | +$4,818 | 05-10 13:44 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | 32 | $29.1K | 33,949 | 0 | +33,949 | No | +$4,897 | 05-09 21:47 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | 9 | $24.8K | 26,256 | 0 | +26,256 | No | +$1,501 | 05-22 13:18 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 68 | $22.9K | 12,520 | 12,520 | +0 | No | -$89 | 05-23 15:12 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252 | 23 | $19.3K | 16,278 | 16,278 | +0 | Yes | +$453 | 06-04 04:10 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | 16 | $18.7K | 21,469 | 0 | +21,469 | No | +$2,742 | 04-23 11:59 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 17 | $18.2K | 14,568 | 7,291 | +7,277 | No | +$1,602 | 05-16 15:19 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | 13 | $13.3K | 13,221 | 518 | +12,703 | No | +$430 | 05-10 21:38 |
| Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | 89 | $11.6K | 204,186 | 8,726 | +195,460 | Yes | +$625 | 05-01 00:32 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 22 | $11.3K | 5,825 | 5,825 | +0 | No | +$170 | 05-26 13:56 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | 8 | $10.0K | 11,111 | 0 | +11,111 | No | +$1,111 | 05-07 16:24 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? | 5 | $8.5K | 5,730 | 5,730 | +0 | No | -$804 | 04-24 13:26 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026 | 7 | $8.0K | 5,132 | 2,907 | +2,224 | No | +$35 | 04-23 23:50 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? | 3 | $4.7K | 2,478 | 2,478 | +0 | No | +$0 | 04-24 20:43 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | 12 | $3.1K | 1,609 | 1,609 | +0 | No | +$58 | 04-30 18:55 |
| Epstein suicide note released by May 8? | 45 | $2.8K | 95,511 | 38,500 | +57,011 | No | -$496 | 05-11 21:52 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 4 | $2.4K | 18,136 | 18,136 | +0 | Yes | -$16 | 05-07 10:34 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? | 2 | $1.9K | 1,130 | 1,130 | +0 | No | +$0 | 04-24 20:41 |
| Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? | 27 | $1.1K | 1,596 | 1,596 | +0 | Yes | -$9 | 04-30 03:49 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? | 4 | $832 | 469 | 469 | +0 | Yes | -$34 | 05-01 11:59 |
| Epstein suicide note released by May 31? | 10 | $484 | 1,845 | 1,845 | +0 | No | -$33 | 05-23 15:15 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | 2 | $257 | 166 | 166 | +0 | No | +$31 | 04-22 11:56 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026? | 2 | $248 | 268 | 268 | +0 | Yes | -$47 | 04-12 21:52 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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