Reflecting-Bust — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$68

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

50.2%

Resolved

130

Trades

198

lifetime

Volume

$1.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-02

last 06-16 16:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 45% -$84

Other

10% 29% +$25

Politics

3% 33% -$9

Sports

1% 100% +$1

Tech

0% 50% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-16).

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	3	$110	97	97	+0	Down	+$84	05-17 00:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	7	$92	411	132	+279	Up	-$8	05-17 00:19
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$44	29	29	+0	No	+$14	05-16 23:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	3	$35	27	27	+0	Up	+$20	05-04 07:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	2	$33	78	0	+78	Up	-$33	05-04 12:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	2	$30	248	0	+248	Down	-$30	05-17 00:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	2	$30	66	0	+66	Up	-$30	05-17 00:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	2	$26	16	16	+0	Down	+$6	05-04 07:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	1	$25	50	0	+50	Up	-$25	05-17 00:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	2	$25	64	0	+64	Down	-$25	05-04 11:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	1	$25	54	0	+54	Down	-$25	05-17 00:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	3	$25	66	0	+66	Up	+$41	05-04 07:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	3	$23	133	0	+133	Up	-$23	05-04 11:52
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	2	$22	19	19	+0	Yes	+$2	05-04 06:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	5	$21	4,192	0	+4,192	Up	-$21	05-03 19:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	2	$20	28	0	+28	Down	+$8	05-04 11:35
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?	2	$18	111	111	+0	open	—	05-05 00:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	3	$17	51	0	+51	Down	+$34	05-16 23:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 15:55 UTC	2	$16	11	11	+0	Down	+$6	06-16 16:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	3	$16	76	0	+76	Up	-$16	05-03 19:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	2	$15	38	0	+38	Up	-$15	05-04 14:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	3	$15	34	0	+34	Down	-$15	05-17 00:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 16:05 UTC	3	$15	40	0	+40	Down	-$15	06-16 16:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	3	$14	35	0	+35	Down	+$21	05-03 19:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	2	$14	9	9	+0	Up	+$4	05-04 07:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	2	$13	38	0	+38	Down	+$4	05-04 07:28
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	2	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$1	05-16 23:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	1	$11	28	0	+28	Down	-$11	05-04 11:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	2	$11	20	0	+20	Down	+$9	05-03 19:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	3	$11	21	0	+21	Down	+$10	05-03 20:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-16 16:06:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 16:05 UTC	Up	BUY	23	21¢	$5	0x9817a3…
06-16 16:05:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 16:05 UTC	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x9e43cd…
06-16 16:05:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 16:05 UTC	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x5b1d77…
06-16 16:00:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 15:55 UTC	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x089796…
06-16 15:55:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 15:55 UTC	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xb01868…
06-16 15:55:16	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	96	6¢	$6	0xd967fd…
06-13 07:19:33	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	96	5¢	$5	0x94c5e6…
06-13 07:18:42	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x232e85…
06-13 07:18:25	Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x9a8795…
06-13 07:17:28	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 team total away 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xb5f756…
06-13 07:17:04	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 spread away 2pt5	Switzerland	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x5b0c0d…
06-11 21:49:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x04b415…
06-11 21:48:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xbf26c8…
06-11 21:47:57	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xcbcbe9…
06-11 21:47:45	spacex ipo closing market cap above 4t	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x32f1ce…
06-11 13:46:12	Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x4bd4c9…
06-11 13:45:57	Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x0437d5…
06-11 13:45:46	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xede84d…
05-17 00:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xbec0c1…
05-17 00:31:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x7218fa…
05-17 00:31:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x0f4c0d…
05-17 00:26:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xc4286a…
05-17 00:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	59	42¢	$25	0x7ce5e7…
05-17 00:22:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x8cf179…
05-17 00:22:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	192	13¢	$25	0x99d839…
05-17 00:19:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x888d2f…
05-17 00:17:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xa71785…
05-17 00:17:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x5e6987…
05-17 00:16:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	SELL	132	32¢	$42	0xec2818…
05-17 00:16:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xf9812c…
05-17 00:15:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xd5d66c…
05-17 00:15:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0xf3a9c1…
05-17 00:11:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0xe8cd67…
05-17 00:07:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x9644ea…
05-17 00:03:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	Yes	BUY	64	5¢	$3	0xe823bf…
05-17 00:03:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x5bccbc…
05-17 00:01:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	97	99¢	$97	0x350ae5…
05-16 23:58:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x948dd2…
05-16 23:56:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	82	10¢	$8	0x352f9a…
05-16 23:47:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	24	34¢	$8	0x19cc93…
05-16 23:47:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	24	33¢	$8	0xb6c7e9…
05-16 23:46:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xa44b71…
05-16 23:45:57	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x544e20…
05-16 23:45:52	Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x844ec4…
05-14 17:13:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x24874d…
05-14 17:13:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xd69d7d…
05-14 17:12:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x75b9e1…
05-14 17:08:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xd87879…
05-14 17:04:37	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x3d6908…
05-14 17:04:21	Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	520	1¢	$5	0x05672f…
05-14 17:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x94f7ad…
05-14 17:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x10642c…
05-13 23:14:47	Will Comey smile in his mugshot?	Yes	SELL	21	2¢	$0	0x3d4b8e…
05-13 23:14:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	SELL	4	19¢	$1	0x193b89…
05-06 22:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0x69fb44…
05-06 22:03:41	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	11	37¢	$4	0x701fa7…
05-05 00:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x5a2533…
05-05 00:02:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xd07e40…
05-05 00:02:12	James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	7¢	$8	0x44b682…
05-04 14:36:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x75f3f6…
05-04 14:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xc6952c…
05-04 14:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xad3b95…
05-04 14:06:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x5ff2de…
05-04 12:05:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x91d09c…
05-04 12:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	70	43¢	$30	0x73be63…
05-04 11:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0x775daf…
05-04 11:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0xf978ee…
05-04 11:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x83077f…
05-04 11:49:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xa3e639…
05-04 11:38:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x7ead41…
05-04 11:38:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xebb68e…
05-04 11:35:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x6efbd2…
05-04 11:32:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xe3f9c7…
05-04 11:31:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0x5ddb88…
05-04 11:25:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x9e3844…
05-04 11:21:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	28	40¢	$11	0xcd0e08…
05-04 11:17:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x7fc943…
05-04 11:16:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x0da7f8…
05-04 11:14:10	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xc983ba…
05-04 11:11:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x407ac4…
05-04 07:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x4d63cd…
05-04 07:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x1346a5…
05-04 07:31:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x9e07af…
05-04 07:31:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xdad0e8…
05-04 07:28:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0x7d8f17…
05-04 07:21:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xf08f2d…
05-04 07:18:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x193b53…
05-04 07:17:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xbedab2…
05-04 07:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xa8c6f5…
05-04 07:12:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0xae27cf…
05-04 07:10:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	38¢	$4	0xf5dd3b…
05-04 07:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xaefbca…
05-04 07:02:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x028689…
05-04 07:01:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xc374c8…
05-04 07:01:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x086515…
05-04 06:55:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x321e79…
05-04 06:52:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xef1321…
05-04 06:52:10	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	19	61¢	$12	0xce369e…
05-04 06:48:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xbc22bc…
05-04 06:46:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xca3c33…