Smug-Chemical — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$26

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

84.9%

Resolved

1,069

Trades

2,768

lifetime

Volume

$21.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$27

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-12 19:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 158 days

Categories

Other

75% 84% -$57

Sports

11% 73% -$14

Politics

6% 82% +$72

Crypto

6% 76% -$5

Tech

1% 62% +$29

Pop-Culture

0% 67% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes		-31	-$18	88¢	$-27	-$9	05-10 15:10
Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes		+18	$5	0¢	$0	-$5	07-28 15:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	44	$902	769	769	+0	Yes	+$74	06-01 00:37
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	19	$418	236	236	+0	No	+$25	06-12 07:25
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$402	210	210	+0	No	-$1	06-26 22:35
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	8	$349	182	182	+0	Yes	+$6	06-27 22:26
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	10	$313	165	165	+0	Yes	+$9	06-19 16:34
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	9	$252	148	148	+0	No	+$30	08-31 16:28
wti closes above 79 on june 16 2026	15	$241	123	123	+0	No	+$3	06-16 18:45
Will Meta (META) close above $620 on June 2?	10	$215	120	120	+0	No	+$24	06-02 19:42
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	17	$200	107	107	+0	No	+$8	06-16 14:43
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	4	$198	100	100	+0	Yes	+$1	06-16 15:41
spy closes above 770 on august 20 2026	2	$191	100	100	+0	No	+$3	08-20 16:05
spy closes above 755 on june 8 2026	9	$191	105	100	+5	No	+$2	06-08 16:02
will openais astra model be released by september 4 2026	2	$176	100	100	+0	Yes	+$2	09-04 14:39
wti closes above 77 on june 18 2026	3	$166	90	90	+0	No	-$7	06-18 19:37
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	2	$165	85	85	+0	No	+$5	06-24 13:22
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	5	$155	144	144	+0	Yes	-$33	09-28 12:21
dax up or down on june 12 2026	3	$151	76	76	+0	Up	+$1	06-12 19:49
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$146	80	80	+0	No	+$6	06-24 01:21
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	14	$142	109	109	+0	Yes	+$16	06-19 14:22
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	9	$140	81	81	+0	No	+$15	06-23 12:21
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	2	$140	80	80	+0	No	+$11	06-13 05:02
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$136	200	200	+0	No	-$7	07-08 17:54
will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 55 or higher 20260723190836286	4	$134	79	79	+0	Yes	+$0	09-16 04:50
Will Austria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	8	$133	69	69	+0	Yes	+$1	06-28 04:13
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$131	233	237	-5	No	+$6	08-16 02:34
fifwc can qat 2026 06 18 total 6pt5	2	$131	86	86	+0	Under	-$29	06-18 23:55
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	7	$131	97	97	+0	No	+$5	06-12 15:56
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	4	$130	100	100	+0	Yes	+$20	09-01 12:34
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$129	67	67	+0	No	+$1	06-23 03:07
wti closes above 80 on june 16 2026	3	$128	65	65	+0	No	+$1	06-16 17:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 19:49:38	Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	19	4¢	$1	0xb442e7…
09-30 09:33:42	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x745349…
09-30 09:33:11	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	69¢	$15	0xf3cdb0…
09-30 09:27:32	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0xba67d1…
09-30 02:08:11	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	47¢	$12	0x2a7e20…
09-30 01:50:54	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x1b6219…
09-29 04:32:47	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0xf7a2ed…
09-29 04:32:47	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	75¢	$19	0x733225…
09-29 04:32:47	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	75¢	$8	0x5484f2…
09-29 04:32:47	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	75¢	$20	0x41dc1c…
09-29 04:30:51	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0x40b601…
09-29 02:15:39	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	62¢	$46	0xc8ce83…
09-29 02:13:45	Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x0e15ff…
09-29 02:13:41	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x14823e…
09-29 02:13:33	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x53a111…
09-29 02:13:32	Will Rodri finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	36	76¢	$27	0x178ddb…
09-28 12:21:12	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	34¢	$31	0x2e1629…
09-28 04:54:50	Will Declan Rice finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xaa72b1…
09-28 01:10:44	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	57¢	$51	0x5ea014…
09-28 01:10:29	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	56¢	$30	0x96e4f9…
09-27 23:16:14	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x6c677a…
09-27 23:15:59	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0xbf6b57…
09-25 19:21:26	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $320 Week of September 21 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5216b5…
09-25 16:00:59	will aapl reach 340 by september 21 2026 from september 23	No	SELL	11	12¢	$1	0x48f918…
09-25 15:29:23	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x245d26…
09-25 14:01:33	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $320 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1ca856…
09-25 14:01:06	will aapl reach 340 by september 21 2026 from september 23	No	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0xaa25fb…
09-25 11:20:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xc95d96…
09-25 01:55:11	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x7d3746…
09-24 20:55:11	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of September 21 2026?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$7	0xeb8650…
09-24 20:17:53	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of September 21 2026?	No	SELL	35	90¢	$31	0x89f428…
09-24 19:36:50	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	17	55¢	$9	0x7356e9…
09-24 19:14:42	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0xf43774…
09-24 14:49:09	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of September 21 2026?	No	SELL	22	86¢	$19	0x617c36…
09-24 14:47:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of September 21 2026?	No	SELL	13	86¢	$11	0xaa86e6…
09-23 15:52:32	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	70	73¢	$51	0x8d8b3f…
09-22 20:26:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	Yes	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x468800…
09-22 08:52:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xdc5548…
09-22 08:50:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	85¢	$47	0x3628d1…
09-21 21:48:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	75¢	$42	0xd65b69…
09-21 21:46:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	Yes	BUY	26	81¢	$21	0x5b0277…
09-21 18:13:15	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0x8b87ca…
09-21 18:11:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in September?	No	SELL	8	37¢	$3	0x042e6f…
09-21 18:08:00	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in September?	No	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0xa01021…
09-21 17:26:55	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in September?	No	SELL	18	44¢	$8	0x62b56a…
09-21 11:35:41	Will Pau Cubarsi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xee9b24…
09-21 02:21:08	Will Pau Cubarsi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	17	97¢	$17	0x4f5cef…
09-21 02:20:08	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x89bf3b…
09-21 02:10:08	Will Pau Cubarsi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xe660ba…
09-21 01:59:16	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	35	34¢	$12	0x9b9cd4…
09-21 01:58:59	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xcf616d…
09-21 01:48:11	Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x55e2b4…
09-21 01:46:37	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xe5035e…
09-21 01:46:13	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0x86cea9…
09-21 01:45:50	Will Pau Cubarsi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xb051dc…
09-21 01:45:46	Will Declan Rice finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x52123d…
09-21 01:32:43	Will Rodri finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	36	71¢	$26	0x1a1d48…
09-21 01:32:05	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xa1be10…
09-21 01:30:47	Will Pau Cubarsi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	8	86¢	$6	0x9f3b34…
09-21 01:15:46	Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x9e1e74…
09-21 00:58:20	Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x6ceaa3…
09-21 00:49:50	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x0a3f85…
09-20 07:43:13	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x57762f…
09-20 00:05:10	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xecc153…
09-19 01:13:18	Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by September 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x2c72ed…
09-18 19:58:21	Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of September 14 above $360?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x89a72c…
09-18 05:33:31	Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of September 14 above $360?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x6a0c63…
09-16 22:50:57	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in September?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x9847f0…
09-16 22:50:49	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in September?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x84da9e…
09-16 04:50:18	will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 55 or higher 20260723190836286	Yes	SELL	39	82¢	$32	0xff9a79…
09-15 15:25:10	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	95¢	$17	0x41e4cc…
09-15 13:40:12	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	90¢	$17	0xe191a7…
09-15 13:35:33	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	80¢	$13	0xd6a0a8…
09-14 20:38:55	Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by September 30?	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x37d3f8…
09-14 20:38:42	Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by September 30?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x0800cc…
09-14 17:18:24	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	39	81¢	$32	0xcddd35…
09-14 13:59:18	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on September 14?	No	SELL	30	42¢	$13	0x9f98de…
09-14 13:47:51	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on September 14?	No	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0xe97559…
09-13 22:28:58	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	69¢	$19	0xf32125…
09-13 22:28:45	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	68¢	$26	0xb2fe49…
09-11 22:36:21	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xf55072…
09-11 22:35:49	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0x2a0bb3…
09-11 22:25:45	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x0c76ca…
09-11 16:49:58	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on September 11?	No	BUY	0	93¢	$0	0xbcea4f…
09-11 15:55:19	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	SELL	19	87¢	$16	0xa7235d…
09-11 15:36:30	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0xd597ed…
09-11 15:32:16	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0xa3f671…
09-11 15:30:34	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x441e50…
09-11 14:23:42	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x77466f…
09-11 14:23:34	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x1e2e19…
09-11 14:21:57	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	65¢	$32	0x2a2a21…
09-10 13:29:25	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $137.50 Week of September 7 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x3f477b…
09-10 01:39:22	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x9682be…
09-09 22:23:28	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $137.50 Week of September 7 2026?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xa04c4f…
09-09 16:11:39	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x9c16ae…
09-07 10:07:33	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x5a3d5c…
09-04 19:24:15	Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of August 31 above $345?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x063380…
09-04 16:07:58	Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of August 31 above $345?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x73854d…
09-04 14:39:57	will openais astra model be released by september 4 2026	No	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0x4c96be…
09-04 14:01:31	will openais astra model be released by september 4 2026	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x9eb858…