Realized P&L
+$588
Unrealized P&L
+$70
Hit rate
94.1%
Resolved
14
Trades
24,715
lifetime
Volume
$484.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$20
Open exposure
$801
24 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 05:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Politics
84% 77% +$686
Other
15% 0% $-99
Crypto
1%
Sports
0%
Tech
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 623 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +819 $156 16¢ $135 $-20 07-19 12:46
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +964 $125 12¢ $121 $-4 06-15 17:31
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No -348 $-144 34¢ $-117 +$28 07-02 15:23
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -350 $-130 22¢ $-79 +$51 07-10 00:03
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -117 $-81 67¢ $-79 +$2 05-31 05:17
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -72 $-47 83¢ $-60 $-13 06-08 19:41
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Yes +190 $33 31¢ $59 +$26 07-13 17:41
Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +301 $45 15¢ $44 $-2 07-06 11:48
Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes +430 $26 $26 +$0 07-19 16:29
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026? Yes -33 $-25 62¢ $-20 +$5 06-07 09:00
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +92 $39 22¢ $20 $-19 06-11 23:09
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -54 $-19 26¢ $-14 +$5 06-16 08:32
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -104 $-12 10¢ $-10 +$2 07-06 23:49
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -58 $-8 10¢ $-6 +$2 07-12 22:09
Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +22 $2 18¢ $4 +$2 06-08 21:37
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes +53 $2 $2 +$0 07-04 19:36
Will Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes +108 $3 $2 $-1 07-05 06:52
Will Michelle Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes +94 $2 $2 $-0 07-12 06:41
Will Donald Trump Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes +26 $2 $1 $-0 06-05 06:11
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes +10 $0 $0 +$0 07-20 13:24
Will Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +2 $0 16¢ $0 $-0 07-12 15:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $-8 36¢ $0 +$8 07-05 17:55
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +0 $-22 36¢ $0 +$22 07-12 11:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +0 $24 44¢ $0 $-24 06-16 23:33