Outlying-Credibility — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$67

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.7%

Resolved

341

Trades

503

lifetime

Volume

$3.15K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-29

last 06-21 12:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Other

74% 62% -$74

Crypto

17% 22% -$30

Sports

9% 83% +$37

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-21).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 corners total 8pt5	1	$372	548	0	+548	Under	-$372	06-21 12:07
fifwc usa aus 2026 06 19 total 1pt5	2	$364	212	212	+0	Over	+$59	06-19 21:04
fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 btts	2	$261	162	162	+0	Yes	+$63	06-20 18:59
fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 corners total 7pt5	1	$252	376	0	+376	Over	+$124	06-20 22:28
fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 total 2pt5	1	$160	255	0	+255	Over	+$94	06-20 19:04
SD Huesca vs. CD Castellón: O/U 0.5	2	$154	84	84	+0	Over	+$14	05-24 20:18
fifwc sco mar 2026 06 19 total 1pt5	1	$110	159	0	+159	Under	-$110	06-19 21:18
fifwc che bih 2026 06 18 corners total 8pt5	1	$103	154	0	+154	Over	+$51	06-18 19:04
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5	1	$83	126	0	+126	Under	-$83	05-24 20:22
fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 corners total 7pt5	1	$69	104	0	+104	Over	+$35	06-17 19:03
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5	1	$65	94	0	+94	Over	+$29	05-22 21:18
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5	1	$59	70	0	+70	Over	+$10	05-19 18:06
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)	1	$53	109	0	+109	Knicks	+$55	05-23 22:23
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score	1	$49	86	0	+86	Yes	+$37	05-17 19:28
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	1	$44	66	0	+66	Over	+$22	05-20 21:11
fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 corners total 8pt5	1	$44	69	0	+69	Over	+$26	06-16 18:39
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5	1	$40	56	0	+56	Under	-$40	05-23 18:13
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5	1	$38	51	0	+51	Under	-$38	05-24 14:58
UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5	2	$30	52	0	+52	Over	+$22	05-16 16:04
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	1	$29	44	0	+44	Over	+$15	06-15 18:20
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5	1	$26	37	0	+37	Under	-$26	05-18 18:53
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score	1	$25	50	0	+50	No	-$25	05-20 18:47
CD Castellón vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 1.5	1	$25	43	0	+43	Over	+$18	05-15 19:31
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	2	$24	16	16	+0	Over	+$9	06-14 19:01
Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to Score	1	$20	35	0	+35	No	-$20	05-17 16:46
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score	1	$20	32	0	+32	No	-$20	05-17 16:50
fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 btts	1	$16	30	0	+30	Yes	+$14	06-14 19:02
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5	1	$15	26	0	+26	Over	+$11	05-15 22:18
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5	1	$15	33	0	+33	Under	-$15	05-17 15:00
SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5	1	$15	25	0	+25	Over	+$10	05-16 14:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-21 12:07:50	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 corners total 8pt5	Over	BUY	548	68¢	$372	0xcb6b54…
06-20 22:28:13	fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 corners total 7pt5	Over	BUY	376	67¢	$252	0x9d6548…
06-20 19:04:25	fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	255	63¢	$160	0xbe4a32…
06-20 18:59:37	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 btts	Yes	SELL	162	100¢	$162	0x70542c…
06-20 11:35:29	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 btts	Yes	BUY	162	61¢	$99	0x5c90d0…
06-19 21:18:04	fifwc sco mar 2026 06 19 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	159	69¢	$110	0xc750d9…
06-19 21:04:47	fifwc usa aus 2026 06 19 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	212	100¢	$211	0x75159d…
06-19 18:55:05	fifwc usa aus 2026 06 19 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	212	72¢	$152	0x21dc6d…
06-18 19:04:59	fifwc che bih 2026 06 18 corners total 8pt5	Over	BUY	154	67¢	$103	0xa58023…
06-17 19:03:59	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 corners total 7pt5	Over	BUY	104	66¢	$69	0xc8c205…
06-16 18:39:29	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 corners total 8pt5	Over	BUY	69	63¢	$44	0x212440…
06-15 18:20:52	Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	44	66¢	$29	0xa26153…
06-14 19:02:39	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 btts	Yes	BUY	30	54¢	$16	0x18b0b5…
06-14 19:01:03	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 total 4pt5	Over	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x00840f…
06-14 15:39:36	Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	16	46¢	$7	0xd4b6ca…
06-14 11:58:06	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	67	12¢	$8	0xcd0b99…
05-24 20:22:51	Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5	Over	BUY	126	66¢	$83	0xaa8efb…
05-24 20:18:50	SD Huesca vs. CD Castellón: O/U 0.5	Over	SELL	84	100¢	$84	0x389478…
05-24 17:23:08	SD Huesca vs. CD Castellón: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	84	83¢	$70	0x65e5ed…
05-24 14:58:12	Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	51	74¢	$38	0xf9bc51…
05-23 22:23:42	1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)	Knicks	BUY	109	49¢	$53	0xec591c…
05-23 18:13:48	RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	56	72¢	$40	0x661765…
05-22 21:18:51	Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	94	69¢	$65	0xad5dbe…
05-20 21:11:16	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	66	67¢	$44	0x3bae60…
05-20 18:47:47	SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xbc2c6f…
05-19 18:06:09	AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	70	85¢	$59	0xfb0344…
05-18 18:53:13	Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	37	71¢	$26	0x49c5e7…
05-17 19:28:41	FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	86	57¢	$49	0x9591d7…
05-17 16:50:22	Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x03da3b…
05-17 16:46:56	Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0xe929e3…
05-17 15:00:41	Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	33	46¢	$15	0x693610…
05-16 16:04:18	UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0xf74871…
05-16 16:04:01	UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0xe23192…
05-16 14:34:18	SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	25	59¢	$15	0x34cc5a…
05-15 22:18:12	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5	Over	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x54ae5c…
05-15 19:31:33	CD Castellón vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0x323266…
05-09 17:08:39	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	67	7¢	$5	0xe20065…
04-26 10:53:12	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0x1707eb…
04-26 10:44:14	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xb2833b…
04-26 10:44:14	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0x40a6cc…
04-26 10:44:12	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x49ff38…
04-26 10:39:38	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	19	4¢	$1	0x1a0a51…
04-26 10:39:36	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x05ba73…
04-26 10:29:38	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0x0dbd79…
04-26 10:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x717000…
04-26 10:08:20	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	19	4¢	$1	0x97dab7…
04-26 10:08:14	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x298bb3…
04-26 10:04:34	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	0	4¢	$0	0xc3f3a6…
04-26 10:04:34	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xbf0f70…
04-26 10:04:26	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x6ffdb9…
04-26 10:04:24	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x5ad03d…
04-26 10:04:20	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x6b8b25…
04-26 10:04:16	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xca975a…
04-26 10:04:14	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x495934…
04-26 09:44:20	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x45f80b…
04-26 09:39:34	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xf5eb45…
04-26 09:39:32	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0x9ae8b7…
04-26 09:39:32	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0x28d3a2…
04-26 09:24:24	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0xb3fe8e…
04-26 09:24:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0x082b9d…
04-25 23:05:10	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x7423d8…
04-25 23:00:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x89b159…
04-25 22:55:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xc5ce4f…
04-25 22:55:10	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x6642c3…
04-25 22:45:06	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x289ca7…
04-25 22:29:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x11f59f…
04-25 22:29:56	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x94e3f3…
04-25 22:29:56	Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x6ae00d…
04-25 22:25:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x50fdfb…
04-25 22:25:06	Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x3d6ac3…
04-25 22:20:12	Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xfebf5d…
04-25 22:10:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x4a6d9b…
04-25 22:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0x58d43e…
04-25 21:54:28	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0xf4a813…
04-25 21:54:26	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xff0325…
04-25 21:54:26	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xed9d12…
04-25 21:54:26	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x769076…
04-25 21:54:26	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x6acac4…
04-25 21:48:54	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x9906be…
04-25 21:48:54	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0x37eb15…
04-25 21:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0x8976b5…
04-25 21:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0x1b7964…
04-25 21:33:34	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xfbcf8b…
04-25 21:33:32	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x6d0361…
04-25 21:28:10	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x998f52…
04-25 21:03:36	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0xd5dfbe…
04-25 21:03:34	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0xc35a7f…
04-25 21:03:32	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xf3270b…
04-25 20:49:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0x7310c9…
04-25 20:39:16	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	19	4¢	$1	0x81b1a7…
04-25 20:39:16	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x0c4052…
04-25 20:23:46	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	0	4¢	$0	0xf5cd18…
04-25 20:23:46	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x792b4c…
04-25 20:23:44	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0xcbce95…
04-25 20:23:44	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x750efe…
04-25 20:23:44	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0x24f5ad…
04-25 20:19:42	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	0	4¢	$0	0xc21777…
04-25 20:19:42	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	18	4¢	$1	0xb2c8e0…
04-25 20:19:40	Solana Up or Down - April 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x41b5fe…
04-25 20:19:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0x38d871…