Cautious-Tax — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.3%

Resolved

290

Trades

290

lifetime

Volume

$3.51K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 11-02 06:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 233 days

Categories

Other

97% 100% +$5

Politics

3% 80% -$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 14?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-14 07:32
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on May 13?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-13 05:33
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$24	24	+24	No	-$24	05-15 05:17
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 12?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-12 10:01
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 11?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-12 03:48
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 11?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-11 08:12
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 10?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-10 08:18
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on May 9?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-09 06:47
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or below on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-08 10:42
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-08 06:10
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-08 01:33
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 7?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-07 10:41
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 6?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-07 01:42
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 6?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-06 15:21
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-06 04:57
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 5?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-05 11:25
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 4?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-05 02:35
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on May 4?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-04 05:50
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-03 12:27
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 2?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-02 15:33
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 2?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-02 04:45
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$23	24	+24	No	+$1	04-12 02:20
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-08 10:15
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	1	$22	23	+23	No	+$0	04-07 06:54
highest temperature in seoul on april 6 2026 14c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-06 09:44
highest temperature in beijing on april 5 2026 21c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-05 08:54
highest temperature in tel aviv on april 3 2026 25corhigher	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-03 15:06
highest temperature in denver on april 2 2026 70 71f	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-03 02:29
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 2 2026 27c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-02 14:41
highest temperature in wellington on april 2 2026 20c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-02 06:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 06:23:27	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on November 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xeeb213…
10-31 15:54:30	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7709e7…
10-30 14:54:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4486c0…
10-29 17:51:31	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x767a7a…
10-29 09:27:26	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6b2007…
10-28 07:53:35	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x35d66d…
10-27 09:18:05	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x516e2b…
10-26 09:32:21	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x316547…
10-24 11:47:54	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xeaeeb6…
10-22 10:26:39	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on October 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaa41e3…
10-20 07:41:58	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on October 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf82ccd…
10-19 09:23:09	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1747ec…
10-18 10:14:38	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2cdd2f…
10-17 15:39:48	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on October 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3d00d3…
10-16 10:03:39	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1cfc53…
10-15 09:38:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2d49bb…
10-14 09:44:34	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xddd9cf…
10-13 09:24:07	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6edad3…
10-12 09:32:10	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd429d4…
10-11 09:13:21	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x12465e…
10-08 12:27:50	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on October 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xba3b13…
10-07 15:33:58	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x56a428…
10-06 15:04:06	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on October 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbaee3e…
10-05 06:25:11	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C or below on October 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6af21c…
10-03 08:44:39	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xba334b…
10-02 13:13:53	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfe024f…
10-01 08:32:02	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5987ff…
09-30 02:42:24	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C or below on September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0bea02…
09-28 09:57:30	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on September 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfc8227…
09-27 09:05:05	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb9ab04…
09-25 16:16:56	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on September 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x36561c…
09-24 08:42:41	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa42218…
09-23 08:48:58	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x879e56…
09-22 08:34:25	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2a4a2a…
09-21 09:33:03	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa9923e…
09-20 05:54:42	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x54f250…
09-19 08:56:51	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc7c68e…
09-18 07:43:24	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xeb0561…
09-17 04:11:43	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6af22a…
09-16 08:55:09	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1ba52c…
09-15 10:19:51	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x59e391…
09-14 09:15:06	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6dd1d9…
09-13 02:50:58	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on September 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x418dac…
09-11 07:25:58	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on September 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf14e76…
09-10 08:42:01	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2a8cdb…
09-09 02:38:16	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C on September 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfd53ff…
09-08 06:14:30	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x11366e…
09-07 08:45:10	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x900ffa…
09-06 16:03:28	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0d797f…
09-06 10:42:37	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf94b51…
09-05 01:20:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe88abd…
09-04 00:59:52	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb5ee49…
09-02 07:53:52	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on September 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5d2b9f…
08-30 09:20:31	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x098a0f…
08-29 09:43:01	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x167cbe…
08-28 08:50:30	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd531a0…
08-27 09:07:28	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf5c47a…
08-26 08:44:22	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x23d75c…
08-25 09:41:51	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa667e3…
08-24 14:05:15	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xa96fec…
08-23 15:05:30	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 23?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2d4f94…
08-22 09:04:46	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe43dfe…
08-21 07:52:28	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcd490c…
08-20 09:02:57	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc39740…
08-18 08:30:15	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6112b4…
08-17 08:19:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x68fe54…
08-16 14:23:13	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x53723f…
08-15 10:04:00	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdd3938…
08-14 06:56:49	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8bd301…
08-13 08:56:58	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x38ce9b…
08-12 09:00:07	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x201970…
08-11 07:01:40	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa733bc…
08-10 08:10:24	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8a519e…
08-09 06:14:39	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x17c8e6…
08-08 07:41:10	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x487839…
08-07 07:51:55	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe11199…
08-06 06:51:20	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x54f45d…
08-05 08:03:00	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc97b73…
08-04 08:26:09	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe31289…
08-03 07:43:30	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on August 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x55aa37…
08-02 06:33:12	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x769703…
08-01 07:12:27	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on August 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x101ed1…
07-31 13:50:44	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x08eb91…
07-30 07:03:38	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x295142…
07-29 07:14:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf82ea0…
07-28 07:08:16	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa21ebe…
07-27 08:45:58	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6e741c…
07-26 07:25:15	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x21f230…
07-25 08:35:10	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xec74ab…
07-24 13:33:33	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x67035e…
07-23 08:17:27	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6d31e8…
07-22 02:09:36	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7bf36a…
07-21 09:19:51	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x89d1a3…
07-21 00:21:24	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x34e481…
07-20 08:05:07	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x59add0…
07-18 23:26:49	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x76b5d8…
07-18 00:37:13	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdd6504…
07-17 07:26:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8085e9…
07-15 22:16:49	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on July 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6c12e3…
07-15 07:26:17	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 40°C on July 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x15fe02…