Frivolous-Insurance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9.75K

Unrealized P&L

+$268

Hit rate

70.1%

Resolved

4,869

Trades

13,126

lifetime

Volume

$633.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$48

Open exposure

$273

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 11-14 17:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 197 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 48% -$9,751

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 145 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up		+301	-$45	72¢	$218	+$263	11-14 17:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down		+200	$50	28¢	$55	+$5	11-14 17:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	6	$2.0K	1,689	1,689	+0	Up	+$797	10-23 02:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	12	$2.0K	2,141	2,141	+0	Down	+$310	10-27 06:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	3	$1.9K	1,507	1,507	+0	Up	+$521	10-24 17:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-31 17:00 UTC	11	$1.7K	1,565	1,505	+60	Up	+$274	03-31 17:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	58	$1.6K	1,401	1,401	+0	Down	+$275	05-03 23:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	5	$1.5K	1,659	1,659	+0	Down	+$363	11-10 22:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	7	$1.5K	1,200	1,200	+0	Up	+$440	11-11 04:27
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-04-02 20:00 UTC	21	$1.4K	1,514	1,449	+65	Down	+$206	04-02 23:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-05 06:15 UTC	7	$1.4K	1,082	1,059	+23	Up	-$111	04-05 06:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	14	$1.4K	1,029	1,029	+0	Up	+$115	05-04 00:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	7	$1.3K	944	944	+0	Up	+$269	05-16 15:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	9	$1.2K	920	920	+0	Down	+$198	05-01 12:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-11 20:45 UTC	5	$1.2K	882	882	+0	Down	+$193	07-11 20:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-26 23:30 UTC	4	$1.2K	916	902	+14	Up	+$253	03-26 23:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	5	$1.2K	855	855	+0	Down	+$309	05-03 15:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	12	$1.2K	1,250	1,250	+0	Up	+$214	11-11 08:32
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-23 20:00 UTC	4	$1.1K	1,098	884	+215	Up	+$319	03-23 23:50
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-12 04:30 UTC	9	$1.1K	749	733	+16	Up	+$82	04-12 04:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	8	$1.1K	992	827	+165	Down	+$253	10-25 19:29
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-29 20:00 UTC	14	$1.1K	1,295	1,147	+148	Up	+$64	08-29 21:52
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-25 15:30 UTC	6	$1.1K	1,095	845	+251	Down	+$87	03-25 15:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	11	$1.1K	1,211	1,211	+0	Down	+$390	11-05 04:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	6	$1.0K	1,142	641	+501	open	—	11-14 17:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	10	$1.0K	1,213	864	+349	Up	+$55	10-24 22:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	6	$993	1,354	1,104	+250	Down	+$233	10-23 22:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 18:30 UTC	12	$970	890	875	+14	Up	+$144	03-30 18:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	13	$966	1,274	1,274	+0	Down	+$238	11-08 20:58
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-04-12 16:00 UTC	13	$941	1,033	990	+42	Up	+$75	04-12 19:36
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-12 16:00 UTC	10	$936	859	859	+0	Up	+$224	07-12 19:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	6	$936	888	888	+0	Up	+$471	10-27 22:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 17:42:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x87a196…
11-14 17:38:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	170	84¢	$143	0xe760e6…
11-14 17:38:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	471	80¢	$376	0x7bf481…
11-14 17:22:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	203	49¢	$99	0x5753bd…
11-14 17:19:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	146	51¢	$75	0xea1e81…
11-14 17:19:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	591	51¢	$300	0xd317df…
11-14 14:38:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	259	18¢	$47	0x5579c7…
11-14 14:38:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	280	18¢	$50	0x69918f…
11-14 13:04:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	115	40¢	$46	0xd46183…
11-14 13:04:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	222	45¢	$100	0xf591e6…
11-14 12:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	288	12¢	$35	0xcd634d…
11-14 12:58:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0x2de1b4…
11-14 06:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	245	81¢	$198	0xeb52bf…
11-14 05:47:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	18	38¢	$7	0x0f015d…
11-14 05:47:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	226	40¢	$90	0x858a54…
11-14 02:21:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	327	24¢	$78	0x6c2df2…
11-13 21:05:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0xaddef6…
11-13 21:05:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	35	23¢	$8	0x8f3635…
11-13 21:05:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	578	26¢	$150	0x188501…
11-13 15:05:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	396	65¢	$259	0x3a4dcb…
11-13 13:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	396	38¢	$150	0x942f00…
11-13 05:31:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	208	36¢	$75	0x2a745e…
11-13 05:12:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	SELL	100	87¢	$86	0x36bca5…
11-13 05:11:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	SELL	100	65¢	$65	0x59c0a3…
11-13 05:00:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	199	25¢	$49	0x6854c0…
11-13 04:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	171	21¢	$36	0x587a20…
11-13 04:27:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	89	81¢	$72	0x33296a…
11-13 04:27:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	89	71¢	$63	0x58f1d5…
11-13 04:26:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0x917018…
11-13 04:26:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	126	62¢	$78	0x40edf1…
11-13 04:25:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	34	44¢	$15	0x123e56…
11-13 04:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	218	41¢	$90	0x9c01c3…
11-13 04:12:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	338	24¢	$80	0x3279a3…
11-13 04:11:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	15	18¢	$3	0xc3350b…
11-13 03:41:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	136	36¢	$49	0x1740cb…
11-13 03:34:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	122	33¢	$40	0x8a886c…
11-13 03:30:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	329	38¢	$125	0x9c64d6…
11-13 03:28:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	233	80¢	$187	0x2dab1f…
11-13 03:26:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	233	30¢	$70	0x31aaeb…
11-13 03:22:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	804	4¢	$35	0x1c0c84…
11-13 02:14:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	561	25¢	$140	0xb04abd…
11-13 01:11:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	958	41¢	$389	0x50fc70…
11-12 22:16:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	234	46¢	$108	0x5caa9e…
11-12 22:15:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	367	49¢	$180	0xf7eec4…
11-12 21:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	600	50¢	$300	0x484957…
11-12 11:22:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	486	20¢	$95	0x284d71…
11-12 11:21:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	559	17¢	$95	0xc2fb0f…
11-12 06:55:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1,034	23¢	$240	0x12b3e2…
11-12 01:30:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	272	18¢	$49	0x43e1d4…
11-12 01:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	500	18¢	$90	0xda9299…
11-11 22:32:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	658	15¢	$96	0xf6b619…
11-11 21:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	676	28¢	$189	0x983a95…
11-11 08:32:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	1	35¢	$0	0xd01c44…
11-11 08:31:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	272	35¢	$95	0x2dfed1…
11-11 08:31:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	1	35¢	$0	0x27a600…
11-11 08:31:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0xeeba0f…
11-11 07:25:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	92	25¢	$23	0x5872a8…
11-11 07:25:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	56	25¢	$14	0xea2d7a…
11-11 07:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	145	27¢	$39	0xfed3d0…
11-11 07:23:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	401	70¢	$282	0x0fb8db…
11-11 07:19:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	556	55¢	$306	0x100b11…
11-11 06:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	417	36¢	$150	0xfa0bcc…
11-11 06:47:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0xbc0420…
11-11 06:47:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	435	46¢	$200	0xd1564f…
11-11 04:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	245	75¢	$184	0x542a58…
11-11 04:27:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	32	79¢	$26	0xc11af5…
11-11 04:23:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	278	47¢	$130	0xf6c9d8…
11-11 03:10:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	922	82¢	$760	0xc331fc…
11-11 02:16:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	153	45¢	$69	0xef876c…
11-11 02:16:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	83	42¢	$35	0xd4a96d…
11-11 02:11:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	686	43¢	$296	0xe13f2d…
11-10 22:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	657	49¢	$322	0x414bc8…
11-10 22:32:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	501	63¢	$317	0xd05a3a…
11-10 22:31:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	657	38¢	$250	0xb5859d…
11-10 22:29:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	501	62¢	$311	0xba5534…
11-10 22:16:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1,002	34¢	$336	0x756c5b…
11-10 10:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	556	18¢	$100	0x214608…
11-10 07:35:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	567	64¢	$363	0x293ed4…
11-10 06:19:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	438	32¢	$140	0x86a8e6…
11-10 06:10:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x7c67ab…
11-10 06:09:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	210	43¢	$90	0xdf0402…
11-10 06:09:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	596	42¢	$250	0x21ac56…
11-09 05:10:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	574	41¢	$235	0x004f3c…
11-09 03:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	348	34¢	$120	0x18b80d…
11-09 02:28:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	282	67¢	$190	0xbfa861…
11-09 02:08:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	282	53¢	$150	0x65ea75…
11-09 01:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	125	36¢	$45	0x2cc608…
11-09 01:28:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xb5d3a8…
11-09 01:27:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	126	36¢	$45	0xa48f59…
11-09 01:27:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	304	36¢	$109	0x2c12a9…
11-08 23:48:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	182	6¢	$11	0xed261f…
11-08 21:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	245	45¢	$110	0x98516e…
11-08 20:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	239	64¢	$153	0x24ec79…
11-08 20:58:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0xf3dbc4…
11-08 20:51:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	249	29¢	$73	0x83ac04…
11-08 20:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	218	11¢	$24	0x84511a…
11-08 20:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	113	11¢	$12	0x3759f1…
11-08 20:40:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	167	21¢	$35	0xde0cf9…
11-08 20:39:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	776	48¢	$369	0x45ade4…
11-08 20:03:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	238	61¢	$145	0x4a4155…