Stark-Complex — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.01K

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

55.3%

Resolved

5,661

Trades

22,062

lifetime

Volume

$48.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 11:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 294 days

Categories

Other

81% 16% +$1,690

Crypto

12% 16% -$745

Politics

4% 19% +$302

Sports

3% 17% -$145

Tech

1% 12% -$84

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

82 active days in 12wk • peak 204 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	Yes		+309	$9	2¢	$6	-$2	09-01 07:51
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes		+21	$0	0¢	$0	$0	10-03 05:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	8	$523	539	539	+0	Yes	+$485	06-26 14:10
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	5	$432	568	568	+0	Yes	+$414	10-06 12:40
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	9	$423	466	466	+0	Yes	+$399	05-19 13:29
fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 total 3pt5	6	$268	270	270	+0	Under	+$250	07-03 01:02
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	13	$246	1,950	1,591	+358	No	+$47	10-16 01:20
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	17	$240	1,409	1,200	+209	No	+$226	06-24 15:43
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	9	$239	895	895	+0	Yes	+$19	08-21 15:29
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	4	$230	234	234	+0	Yes	+$214	06-24 15:09
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	4	$216	460	460	+0	No	+$206	05-22 00:02
Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$214	205	205	+0	Yes	+$195	07-19 22:50
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?	9	$201	206	206	+0	No	+$183	08-19 07:59
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 300 319	5	$196	500	500	+0	No	+$186	02-10 12:43
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 320 339	6	$195	667	658	+8	No	+$184	04-13 17:36
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	16	$188	2,758	2,600	+158	No	+$165	05-22 15:35
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	8	$166	787	787	+0	Yes	+$151	05-21 01:16
Alanyaspor vs. Beşiktaş JK: Alanyaspor O/U 1.5	6	$166	190	190	+0	Under	+$156	08-23 20:22
elon musk of tweets february 7 february 9 115 139	8	$160	300	300	+0	Yes	+$148	02-09 13:11
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 7 2026	6	$157	170	170	+0	No	+$147	06-08 03:54
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	5	$157	165	165	+0	Yes	+$130	10-20 15:49
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	18	$155	2,694	2,444	+250	No	-$8	10-19 16:17
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 30 2026	10	$155	467	167	+300	No	+$130	07-01 11:51
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	10	$153	152	152	+0	Yes	+$144	07-10 15:04
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 320 339	11	$151	711	711	+0	No	+$131	02-10 09:13
will bitcoin dip to 76k january 26 1	4	$151	0	300	-300	Yes	-$149	01-31 18:44
fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 total 5pt5	4	$151	550	399	+151	Under	+$91	06-16 23:48
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-09-07?	6	$150	174	174	+0	Yes	+$124	09-07 21:21
elc bur whu 2026 08 16 total 3pt5	8	$138	130	130	+0	Over	+$122	08-16 17:00
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 65 89	5	$134	220	220	+0	Yes	+$124	04-15 15:43
elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 90 114	8	$132	180	180	+0	Yes	+$122	04-01 15:35
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	14	$131	878	878	+0	No	+$3	08-25 04:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 11:37:28	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	300	0¢	$1	0xd39baf…
10-27 18:29:59	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	3¢	$2	0x26834b…
10-27 18:29:45	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	206	1¢	$2	0x3b7c84…
10-27 14:42:05	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	3¢	$0	0x4b12c5…
10-27 14:41:42	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	3¢	$0	0x102ad9…
10-27 14:27:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	147	3¢	$5	0x1ec867…
10-27 13:12:12	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	3¢	$3	0x84da90…
10-27 12:15:18	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	4¢	$2	0x90a24c…
10-27 11:37:20	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	400	0¢	$1	0x4b6154…
10-27 11:37:02	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0xa1ef1f…
10-27 11:36:54	Will Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	1¢	$0	0x518c4a…
10-27 11:36:33	Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	SELL	22	0¢	$0	0x43a8e9…
10-27 11:36:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x2c8f1d…
10-27 11:35:59	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0xcb7a61…
10-27 11:35:51	Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0xd1078c…
10-27 11:35:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	120	0¢	$0	0x47c1e1…
10-27 11:35:29	IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	Yes	SELL	80	1¢	$0	0xd3852c…
10-27 11:35:15	Will Wagner Moura be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?	Yes	SELL	95	1¢	$1	0xa9456f…
10-27 11:35:06	Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	SELL	72	1¢	$1	0xb7bac1…
10-27 11:31:51	Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	602	1¢	$6	0x3dfb2c…
10-27 00:34:57	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	8¢	$3	0x7b98b8…
10-27 00:26:39	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xfb353c…
10-26 21:15:03	Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	0¢	$0	0xbd7e8a…
10-26 18:30:27	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x30150e…
10-26 16:48:20	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0xbeec9d…
10-26 16:20:15	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0xeb80c9…
10-26 16:20:15	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	1¢	$1	0x25c456…
10-26 15:37:29	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0xbbb8e9…
10-26 15:37:20	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xcaefb0…
10-26 15:26:30	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xc3e137…
10-26 14:23:33	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x13b8b9…
10-26 14:09:33	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	0¢	$0	0x4b1223…
10-26 14:08:20	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	158	0¢	$0	0xff0d85…
10-26 13:06:29	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	1¢	$0	0xaca46e…
10-26 12:58:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	184	1¢	$2	0xf60718…
10-26 12:58:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0x9066ab…
10-26 12:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x23a95a…
10-26 12:56:56	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	176	1¢	$1	0x5b8af9…
10-26 12:56:48	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xb02a3f…
10-26 11:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x1fd58c…
10-26 08:38:17	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x453313…
10-26 04:43:21	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x0a0bdb…
10-26 03:26:47	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	152	1¢	$2	0x63be7f…
10-26 03:26:38	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	517	0¢	$1	0x362dab…
10-26 03:08:12	Will CD Tolima vs. AD Pasto end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x5e32af…
10-26 02:59:39	CF América vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x3052d0…
10-26 02:59:39	CF América vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x0fd2ee…
10-26 02:59:38	CF América vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xe884cf…
10-26 02:59:38	CF América vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0xcbf820…
10-26 02:59:38	CF América vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x8106c4…
10-26 02:59:36	CF América vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x4669aa…
10-26 02:57:14	CF América vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb2d43b…
10-26 02:53:00	Will Querétaro FC vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x78e006…
10-26 01:11:00	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$3	0x1f44bf…
10-25 22:34:35	Exact Score: Sporting CP 2 - 2 Académico de Viseu FC?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xcb70f7…
10-25 22:34:33	Exact Score: Sporting CP 2 - 2 Académico de Viseu FC?	Yes	BUY	75	2¢	$2	0xf99549…
10-25 22:34:30	Exact Score: Sporting CP 2 - 2 Académico de Viseu FC?	Yes	BUY	25	2¢	$1	0x601a27…
10-25 21:49:51	Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 2 Real Madrid CF?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe9427b…
10-25 21:18:42	Exact Score: CA Independiente 2 - 2 CA Boca Juniors?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$1	0x9e97e5…
10-25 20:43:24	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	75	17¢	$13	0x8f304c…
10-25 20:43:17	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	SELL	59	25¢	$15	0x8d809b…
10-25 19:02:59	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa40bc9…
10-25 19:00:09	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	4¢	$2	0xb0e1db…
10-25 18:16:51	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	517	1¢	$3	0x316497…
10-25 18:14:30	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	SELL	21	24¢	$5	0x32bcc2…
10-25 18:09:30	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	190	1¢	$2	0x26c76a…
10-25 18:09:11	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	72	17¢	$12	0x6f9caf…
10-25 18:07:38	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	360	1¢	$4	0xeee188…
10-25 03:32:33	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$1	0x15ed5d…
10-25 01:30:59	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	1¢	$1	0xfc91d3…
10-25 01:30:26	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x5e5148…
10-25 01:29:33	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x527ba4…
10-25 00:08:06	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	Yes	SELL	46	15¢	$7	0xee7f4b…
10-23 03:22:57	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	6¢	$3	0x86dc33…
10-22 23:32:14	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	350	2¢	$7	0xf0e8a0…
10-22 22:50:14	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	254	1¢	$3	0xe300ec…
10-22 22:48:59	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	136	1¢	$1	0x0002ab…
10-22 22:44:48	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	1¢	$0	0x7833cd…
10-22 22:43:38	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x8ab3bc…
10-22 22:43:26	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x2d2362…
10-22 22:38:27	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0xe9474c…
10-22 22:32:59	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xcb387a…
10-22 22:32:59	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xac590c…
10-22 22:21:38	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	1¢	$2	0xd68673…
10-22 22:07:56	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	1¢	$1	0x758ebb…
10-22 21:12:33	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0xd5a366…
10-22 21:06:36	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	1¢	$2	0x9c610c…
10-22 21:06:36	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x594e0e…
10-22 18:37:42	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	202	2¢	$5	0xd42e04…
10-22 18:31:50	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0xb6d32c…
10-22 18:12:17	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	203	2¢	$4	0x56580a…
10-22 18:01:21	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	615	0¢	$3	0x652ada…
10-22 18:00:24	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,255	0¢	$4	0xec5750…
10-22 17:58:08	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	121	1¢	$1	0x1b1d13…
10-22 17:54:30	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	255	0¢	$1	0x549c39…
10-22 17:52:36	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xa3c51d…
10-22 17:50:18	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x5d0ecc…
10-22 17:48:23	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	309	2¢	$5	0xe1262d…
10-22 17:47:21	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	720	0¢	$1	0x14b1d9…
10-22 17:45:54	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0x4bb6f7…