Variable-Piano — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$23

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

54.5%

Resolved

116

Trades

791

lifetime

Volume

$1.54K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-27

last 07-02 16:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

92% 51% $-22

Other

5% 67% $-0

Politics

2% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-1

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 223 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes		+5	$1	14¢	$1	$-0	06-01 13:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	6	$36	23	23	+0	open	—	05-04 14:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	7	$28	34	11	+23	open	—	05-04 03:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	11	$27	41	0	+41	open	—	05-03 06:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	10	$23	34	16	+18	open	—	05-03 07:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	3	$22	25	0	+25	Up	$-1	05-05 03:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	3	$21	28	0	+28	open	—	05-03 12:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	5	$20	26	0	+26	open	—	05-04 12:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	9	$19	32	0	+32	open	—	05-03 06:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	9	$19	35	0	+35	open	—	05-03 06:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	7	$19	23	0	+23	open	—	05-03 15:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	7	$18	30	0	+30	open	—	05-03 16:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	6	$18	29	0	+29	open	—	05-03 05:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	5	$17	22	0	+22	open	—	05-03 10:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	4	$17	27	0	+27	open	—	05-04 13:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	8	$16	27	0	+27	open	—	05-03 14:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	6	$16	20	6	+13	open	—	05-04 01:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	8	$15	24	13	+12	Down	$-3	05-09 16:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	2	$15	23	0	+23	open	—	05-03 16:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	6	$15	28	0	+28	Up	+$3	05-05 11:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	3	$15	22	0	+22	open	—	05-03 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	3	$15	20	0	+20	open	—	05-03 11:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	5	$15	17	0	+17	open	—	05-03 06:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	6	$15	118	8	+110	Up	+$1	05-05 12:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	3	$13	7	7	+0	Down	+$1	05-05 13:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	5	$13	18	0	+18	open	—	05-03 07:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	5	$13	17	0	+17	open	—	05-03 06:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	5	$13	48	0	+48	open	—	05-04 14:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	7	$13	17	4	+13	Up	+$1	05-05 04:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	3	$13	7	7	+0	open	—	05-04 01:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	3	$12	13	2	+11	open	—	05-03 16:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 16:02:56	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 spread home 1pt5	Croatia	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x7f1059…
07-02 16:01:26	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x1f049b…
07-02 16:01:14	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 spread home 1pt5	Austria	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xceed8d…
07-01 13:25:37	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 spread home 2pt5	England	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xd74906…
07-01 13:25:25	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 spread home 1pt5	England	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x2ff9fa…
06-30 14:40:14	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 spread home 1pt5	France	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x4d94dd…
06-22 02:06:58	fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 btts	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x4c8eef…
06-02 12:14:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x599fc2…
06-02 12:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	12¢	$0	0xdbf4dc…
06-02 12:10:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x5488a6…
06-02 08:50:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x158996…
06-02 08:48:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0x19c400…
06-02 08:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x908804…
06-01 17:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x5ef6b1…
06-01 17:42:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xb912fd…
06-01 17:41:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf93399…
06-01 17:38:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xf13830…
06-01 17:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x0934b2…
06-01 13:13:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x88833b…
06-01 13:12:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x4638d5…
06-01 13:09:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0c7ec5…
06-01 13:05:23	Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x7f2f44…
06-01 13:04:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x99bdb9…
06-01 13:00:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x940e10…
06-01 12:54:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	3	50¢	$2	0xb12d99…
06-01 12:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x0cae57…
06-01 12:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0x9806ad…
06-01 12:51:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x8ccc26…
06-01 12:50:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb1971c…
06-01 00:12:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb7bb86…
05-09 18:17:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x3850f2…
05-09 18:14:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x947f46…
05-09 18:11:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x557fd8…
05-09 18:11:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x43a8ca…
05-09 18:06:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xa8fb96…
05-09 18:06:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xbf8d8e…
05-09 18:02:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xec2b48…
05-09 18:02:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x80c90e…
05-09 17:57:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xe5fc1e…
05-09 17:57:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xba8066…
05-09 17:57:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x43a57a…
05-09 17:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x6ab73a…
05-09 17:53:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xdb9e7d…
05-09 17:53:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xd6841e…
05-09 17:49:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x82b654…
05-09 17:47:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x3d2353…
05-09 17:45:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x6484a9…
05-09 17:45:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x2b3f96…
05-09 17:45:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x95a578…
05-09 17:42:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x42aacb…
05-09 17:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x736e47…
05-09 17:41:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x2b353f…
05-09 17:37:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x2da9f3…
05-09 17:35:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xf8e393…
05-09 17:35:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xd7be10…
05-09 17:33:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x371d78…
05-09 17:33:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x4a3674…
05-09 17:33:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x601310…
05-09 17:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	SELL	6	23¢	$1	0xaa7334…
05-09 17:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xb7e095…
05-09 17:29:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xd327d0…
05-09 17:29:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe5b8f2…
05-09 17:26:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xdde0a6…
05-09 17:26:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x95c745…
05-09 17:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x7c2248…
05-09 17:21:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xe1c21a…
05-09 17:20:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x6e4f89…
05-09 17:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xc656ca…
05-09 17:19:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x6f094f…
05-09 17:19:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	SELL	4	85¢	$4	0x86bacd…
05-09 17:17:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	SELL	4	45¢	$2	0xdce0c8…
05-09 17:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x5999d8…
05-09 17:17:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x5bee6e…
05-09 17:17:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xba85cf…
05-09 17:16:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xd5386e…
05-09 17:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x4ea78e…
05-09 17:06:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x1481f4…
05-09 17:05:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xb7a97c…
05-09 17:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xcd748e…
05-09 17:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0xf99f3c…
05-09 17:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x24da6b…
05-09 17:03:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xb2e9f9…
05-09 17:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x4bb055…
05-09 17:01:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xbe9dc0…
05-09 17:00:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x3d2a64…
05-09 17:00:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xdc8370…
05-09 16:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x7556f4…
05-09 16:59:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xec28c0…
05-09 16:58:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xb54887…
05-09 16:58:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xd7e3f5…
05-09 16:55:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x11be84…
05-09 16:55:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xfd51cb…
05-09 16:54:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1d91f1…
05-09 16:44:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x38ed97…
05-09 16:44:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x7b0137…
05-09 16:42:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x16d87c…
05-09 16:42:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xd84351…
05-09 16:37:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x8cac39…
05-09 16:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xd11622…
05-09 16:28:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x9d4bfa…