Harmless-Manager — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.87K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

83.7%

Resolved

364

Trades

2,170

lifetime

Volume

$360.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$166

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 08-04 11:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 114 days

Categories

Other

95% 76% +$3,256

Politics

4% 87% +$104

Crypto

0% 0% -$464

Tech

0% 75% -$22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 300 319	6	$11.2K	5,634	5,634	+0	No	+$11	02-24 00:01
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 280 299	14	$9.3K	4,346	5,012	-666	No	+$17	02-23 04:44
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 320 339	30	$9.0K	7,573	2,039	+5,533	No	-$20	02-24 06:32
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 340 359	26	$6.1K	4,120	3,431	+689	No	+$200	03-13 12:32
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 340 359	3	$5.7K	2,912	2,912	+0	No	-$88	02-13 06:36
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 320 339	5	$5.6K	2,920	2,920	+0	No	-$3	03-13 06:23
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 340 359	11	$5.5K	3,248	2,290	+958	No	+$4	03-30 05:18
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 240 259	11	$5.5K	5,472	50	+5,422	No	+$63	02-26 08:41
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 280 299	15	$5.0K	3,857	1,290	+2,567	No	+$31	03-09 18:01
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 180 199	1	$5.0K	4,972	0	+4,972	No	+$5	02-20 14:00
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 400 419	3	$4.8K	4,839	0	+4,839	No	+$10	02-24 14:09
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 220 239	1	$4.8K	4,833	0	+4,833	No	+$9	02-18 13:20
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 200 219	4	$4.8K	2,443	2,443	+0	No	+$85	02-09 12:07
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 160 179	3	$4.7K	4,691	0	+4,691	No	+$12	02-14 23:46
elon musk of tweets february 26 february 28 215 239	1	$4.6K	4,623	0	+4,623	No	+$9	02-27 09:52
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 300 319	11	$4.3K	3,059	1,594	+1,464	No	-$14	02-06 13:44
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 260 279	6	$4.3K	3,442	887	+2,555	No	+$9	03-11 16:51
elon musk of tweets february 14 february 16 165 189	2	$4.1K	4,066	0	+4,066	No	+$8	02-16 00:56
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 65 89	1	$3.9K	3,910	0	+3,910	Yes	+$6	02-23 16:52
elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 40 64	10	$3.9K	3,719	2,117	+1,602	Yes	+$96	03-25 14:17
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 200 219	16	$3.8K	3,670	328	+3,342	No	+$28	04-21 15:05
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 360 379	27	$3.8K	1,925	1,925	+0	No	+$43	02-27 02:57
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	14	$3.7K	3,696	106	+3,590	No	+$5	04-27 15:16
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 320 339	31	$3.6K	1,885	1,885	+0	No	+$72	02-06 10:35
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 200 219	4	$3.5K	1,983	1,972	+11	No	+$5	04-09 07:00
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	1	$3.4K	3,403	0	+3,403	No	+$10	02-14 02:46
elon musk of tweets february 9 february 11 115 139	5	$3.4K	3,393	0	+3,393	No	+$43	02-11 03:34
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on week 1?	1	$3.3K	3,290	0	+3,290	No	+$3	04-11 14:27
elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 65 89	4	$3.3K	3,311	40	+3,271	Yes	+$9	04-08 15:38
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 400 419	1	$3.2K	3,684	0	+3,684	No	+$449	02-13 06:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-04 11:44:14	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	34¢	$14	0xcda02b…
08-04 11:42:23	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	34¢	$12	0x6a5956…
08-03 06:01:17	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	85	58¢	$49	0xee804e…
08-03 05:12:50	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xad2b5f…
08-03 05:11:27	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	77¢	$58	0x311ad0…
08-03 00:17:02	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	Yes	SELL	39	96¢	$37	0x107f08…
08-02 23:05:39	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	Yes	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0xc73a5f…
08-02 23:05:12	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	Yes	SELL	46	95¢	$44	0x363bcb…
07-29 07:46:14	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	Yes	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0xdf7bcd…
07-29 07:07:08	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	5¢	$4	0x2a5a5c…
07-29 07:04:00	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	19¢	$13	0xd3de2d…
07-29 06:26:20	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	37¢	$10	0x697b63…
07-29 06:25:35	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	37¢	$6	0x51e99c…
07-29 06:24:47	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0x1de337…
07-29 06:19:08	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	No	SELL	22	67¢	$15	0x542cd5…
07-29 06:18:48	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	No	SELL	8	68¢	$5	0xa30b1c…
07-29 06:06:47	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	No	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0xc2bbc3…
07-29 01:44:29	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x7818b0…
07-29 01:43:23	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	Yes	BUY	90	57¢	$51	0x4877c0…
07-28 14:59:55	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	73¢	$18	0xf5b218…
07-28 09:47:47	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xd18ff6…
07-28 09:32:29	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0xf356fd…
07-28 09:32:20	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	24	96¢	$23	0x40a388…
07-28 09:32:13	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0xdc5169…
07-28 06:16:22	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	SELL	66	94¢	$62	0x69ad8f…
07-28 06:14:00	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	SELL	17	94¢	$16	0xb6bd7b…
07-28 06:13:31	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	SELL	7	94¢	$6	0x1691d3…
07-28 02:04:10	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	90	82¢	$74	0x7ea95c…
07-27 08:47:52	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?	Yes	SELL	44	49¢	$21	0xf2fed7…
07-27 08:27:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	44	79¢	$35	0x75c6a4…
07-27 06:55:16	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?	No	SELL	38	40¢	$15	0x658650…
07-27 04:53:07	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?	No	BUY	38	22¢	$8	0x0d2d78…
07-27 03:20:16	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 27?	No	SELL	126	92¢	$116	0x9ece60…
07-27 03:20:16	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 27?	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x229d81…
07-27 02:54:15	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 27?	No	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0x2cd891…
07-27 02:49:09	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 27?	No	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0xb152ee…
07-27 02:47:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 27?	No	BUY	35	95¢	$33	0x1b10d9…
07-27 02:47:21	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 27?	No	BUY	65	95¢	$62	0x8f09d2…
07-26 23:39:04	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	SELL	149	94¢	$140	0x1cb656…
07-26 23:38:57	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0xd0ad14…
07-26 23:38:57	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	SELL	145	94¢	$136	0x35e8f8…
07-26 15:34:51	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x3785c7…
07-26 15:33:57	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	300	81¢	$243	0x28d7a6…
07-26 13:56:00	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?	Yes	SELL	23	91¢	$21	0x44e25e…
07-26 09:54:37	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 26?	Yes	SELL	75	96¢	$72	0x4bef68…
07-26 08:43:27	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x99a2b7…
07-26 08:34:34	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	75	94¢	$71	0xd3ab5e…
07-26 06:44:07	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?	Yes	SELL	256	90¢	$230	0xb032ef…
07-24 16:17:04	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	SELL	43	22¢	$9	0x6d953f…
07-24 16:15:22	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	SELL	30	20¢	$6	0x7604c7…
07-24 16:15:13	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	SELL	83	29¢	$24	0xcfe7fe…
07-24 15:12:25	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0xe67855…
07-24 15:01:00	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x5f5c52…
07-24 14:50:45	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	30	38¢	$11	0xa5b57a…
07-24 14:47:45	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x873e96…
07-24 14:25:25	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x129738…
07-24 14:22:40	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0x68fc35…
07-24 14:19:24	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xf29d58…
07-24 14:19:22	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xcf270b…
07-24 14:19:22	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x633871…
07-24 13:56:37	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xd8d63d…
07-24 13:39:21	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xb5dfc0…
07-24 08:26:27	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	46	68¢	$31	0xa7c61e…
07-24 08:14:30	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	No	BUY	457	99¢	$451	0x083a3b…
07-24 01:32:54	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?	Yes	BUY	180	67¢	$121	0xce9384…
07-23 15:25:30	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	No	SELL	11	12¢	$1	0x04a76c…
07-23 13:42:10	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	No	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0xc8a0e6…
07-23 13:02:45	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	No	BUY	21	8¢	$2	0x1274b1…
07-22 07:36:36	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?	Yes	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0x60dd38…
07-22 07:30:13	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	5¢	$3	0xbd9cac…
07-22 07:29:34	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	7¢	$4	0x748af2…
07-22 03:59:45	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	12¢	$4	0x143e14…
07-22 03:23:30	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xff379b…
07-22 02:44:51	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	No	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0xc06bdc…
07-22 02:43:18	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	No	SELL	16	74¢	$12	0x61bfdc…
07-22 02:08:58	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	No	BUY	18	73¢	$13	0x2f19ff…
07-22 01:27:03	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	No	SELL	63	59¢	$37	0xb1a795…
07-21 22:54:34	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	No	BUY	63	55¢	$35	0x97a41c…
07-21 15:51:16	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0x3072db…
07-21 15:50:49	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	112	93¢	$105	0x41ebc3…
07-21 15:49:10	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	89¢	$33	0x1aa950…
07-21 15:21:36	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	76¢	$95	0xeab5cd…
07-21 14:08:01	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	42¢	$15	0xab8e11…
07-21 12:44:06	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	SELL	42	34¢	$14	0xb71bb2…
07-21 07:59:18	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x8c0850…
07-21 07:58:58	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	30	29¢	$9	0x6de1e2…
07-21 07:40:30	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x4a533f…
07-21 07:38:43	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x450aa7…
07-21 01:59:40	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0x9dfbef…
07-20 23:55:03	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	SELL	4	92¢	$4	0xccf147…
07-20 23:53:16	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	SELL	14	93¢	$13	0x326757…
07-20 10:25:06	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x427283…
07-20 10:21:33	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x69c032…
07-20 09:35:06	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 20?	Yes	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0xe34f91…
07-20 09:34:45	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 20?	Yes	SELL	23	94¢	$22	0x5fd2d6…
07-20 08:56:40	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x436c19…
07-20 08:56:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0x82fd4f…
07-20 08:56:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x16434b…
07-20 00:35:48	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0x6fd75a…
07-19 18:49:03	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	Yes	SELL	34	91¢	$31	0xfa0f09…