Able-Mutton — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$148

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.6%

Resolved

Trades

248

lifetime

Volume

$129.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$523

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 10-29 06:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 73 days

Categories

Crypto

80% 94% +$68

Politics

17% 87% -$302

Other

3% 92% +$86

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 84k on february 3	23	$36.7K	19,986	16,757	+3,229	No	+$8	02-03 16:41
bitcoin above 82k on february 4	18	$21.3K	10,675	10,675	+0	No	+$12	02-04 15:06
bitcoin above 80k on february 4	9	$19.5K	9,788	9,788	+0	No	+$5	02-04 16:23
bitcoin above 86k on february 3	35	$17.5K	8,773	8,773	+0	No	+$0	02-03 13:16
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	16	$10.1K	5,126	5,126	+0	Yes	+$4	02-03 03:23
us strikes iran by february 3 2026	16	$8.7K	5,800	2,900	+2,900	No	+$6	02-04 06:46
Tria FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$2.9K	2,906	0	+2,906	No	+$6	02-04 16:38
will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 18 2026 264	3	$600	301	301	+0	No	+$0	02-19 15:46
ethereum above 2500 on february 8	2	$597	300	300	+0	No	+$3	02-08 13:57
ethereum above 2600 on february 2	7	$590	590	5	+585	No	+$6	02-02 13:04
ethereum above 2700 on february 2	7	$460	231	231	+0	No	+$1	02-02 12:02
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$340	340	0	+340	No	+$0	03-24 11:36
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$335	340	0	+340	Yes	-$335	04-04 15:31
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$330	332	0	+332	Yes	+$2	03-16 08:12
bitcoin above 76k on march 11	1	$320	320	0	+320	No	+$0	03-11 13:32
ethereum above 2400 on march 9	1	$320	320	0	+320	No	+$0	03-09 04:15
lol gen ly 2026 03 19	1	$316	320	0	+320	Gen.G	+$4	03-19 04:31
Over $3M committed to the Fabric public sale?	1	$310	311	0	+311	Yes	+$1	01-29 04:48
bitcoin above 82k on february 6	1	$310	310	0	+310	No	+$0	02-06 06:10
grmn quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 18 2026 2pt39	1	$310	310	0	+310	Yes	+$0	02-18 14:49
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	4	$303	310	0	+310	No	+$7	03-04 14:26
ethereum above 2500 on march 23	1	$300	300	0	+300	No	+$0	03-23 12:11
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$300	311	0	+311	No	+$11	01-14 09:18
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	1	$300	300	0	+300	No	+$0	02-22 04:11
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$300	302	0	+302	No	+$2	01-25 09:21
ethereum above 1600 on february 11	1	$300	300	0	+300	Yes	+$0	02-11 14:07
us strikes iran by february 15 2026	1	$300	300	0	+300	No	+$0	02-16 06:06
bitcoin above 60k on february 23	2	$299	300	0	+300	Yes	+$1	02-23 14:12
bitcoin above 80k on february 5	1	$299	300	0	+300	No	+$1	02-05 08:18
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	1	$294	300	0	+300	No	+$6	03-29 06:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 06:26:52	LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x132e30…
10-29 06:26:43	LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Karmine Corp	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x45be15…
10-23 11:11:27	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x67eb07…
10-23 11:10:50	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xe7d1e3…
10-23 11:10:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x1acb6a…
09-19 11:52:11	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x0ba987…
09-19 11:51:44	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x4a452a…
09-19 11:51:21	lol ig1 jdg 2026 09 19	Invictus Gaming	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x660980…
09-11 02:04:07	Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x484067…
08-29 08:07:33	lol t1 fox1 2026 08 29	T1	BUY	150	82¢	$123	0x8c3057…
08-14 12:13:37	lol t1 dk 2026 08 14	Dplus KIA	BUY	160	100¢	$160	0x998c26…
08-01 08:42:42	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa0cf94…
08-01 08:39:02	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	64	100¢	$63	0xa28621…
08-01 08:37:42	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	93	100¢	$93	0x0f3bd5…
07-05 08:28:08	lol hle1 g2 2026 07 05	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	150	96¢	$144	0x5851c8…
06-29 04:22:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x0f63f8…
06-29 04:21:32	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 29?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x0880af…
06-23 05:26:25	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xf4f20f…
06-23 05:24:50	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x904b55…
06-23 05:21:38	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2ad306…
06-23 05:13:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xe4d75c…
06-23 05:10:35	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x243a08…
06-23 05:06:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf4d500…
06-23 05:04:10	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x4f700f…
06-23 04:11:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23?	No	BUY	53	99¢	$53	0xa17baf…
06-23 04:08:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 23?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x563cdb…
06-23 02:49:47	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 23?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2f5a3b…
06-23 02:49:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 23?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x34cd8b…
06-23 02:48:01	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 23?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x4229fa…
06-14 02:59:54	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xa87887…
06-07 10:49:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	131	100¢	$130	0x8c339a…
06-03 11:06:48	LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	130	99¢	$128	0xad19d2…
05-30 06:03:46	LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	KT Rolster	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x500516…
05-23 08:31:35	LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner	LNG Esports	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x923137…
05-18 12:46:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xf974b2…
05-15 06:11:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x55ae20…
05-15 05:51:51	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x281921…
05-11 08:03:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	122	98¢	$120	0x41b1ed…
05-08 09:22:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	118	98¢	$116	0xd8ead3…
05-04 12:42:32	LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner	T1	BUY	112	98¢	$110	0x7ebc19…
04-29 11:25:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0xaccb49…
04-24 05:56:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0x06ddfa…
04-22 15:14:00	USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xbb8aa4…
04-14 03:57:03	Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	116	100¢	$116	0x0ee1a2…
04-04 15:31:45	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	340	98¢	$335	0x390a89…
03-29 06:04:36	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	300	98¢	$294	0xedfefc…
03-24 11:36:05	Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	194	100¢	$193	0xcfb6e8…
03-24 11:24:13	Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	146	100¢	$146	0x074294…
03-23 12:11:19	ethereum above 2500 on march 23	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xc6fa64…
03-19 04:31:43	lol gen ly 2026 03 19	Gen.G	BUY	320	99¢	$316	0x4d737f…
03-16 08:12:41	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	332	100¢	$330	0xdeb7ee…
03-14 13:23:37	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	210	99¢	$209	0xb7a24e…
03-12 08:08:51	will jessie buckley win best actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	105	96¢	$101	0x2f07c2…
03-12 07:37:49	will jessie buckley win best actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x18957b…
03-11 13:32:23	bitcoin above 76k on march 11	No	BUY	320	100¢	$320	0x9d11ec…
03-09 04:15:33	ethereum above 2400 on march 9	No	BUY	320	100¢	$320	0x6d3aca…
03-04 14:26:05	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xa39ce2…
03-04 14:25:45	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x12f992…
03-04 14:25:43	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x64e13a…
03-04 14:25:25	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	No	BUY	213	98¢	$209	0x13d31e…
03-02 05:23:27	us x iran ceasefire by march 2	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x2f1fce…
02-27 14:03:47	will ethereum dip to 1600 in february 2026	No	SELL	111	98¢	$110	0x3d7ddc…
02-27 14:01:29	will ethereum dip to 1400 in february 2026	No	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0x55dac8…
02-27 13:54:43	will ethereum dip to 1400 in february 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8d091a…
02-26 06:21:38	bitcoin above 60k on february 26	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x5e56b1…
02-26 06:20:58	will ethereum dip to 1400 in february 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xfc6d7a…
02-26 06:19:22	will ethereum dip to 1600 in february 2026	No	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0x963ff3…
02-23 14:12:08	bitcoin above 60k on february 23	Yes	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x7a395d…
02-23 14:04:32	bitcoin above 60k on february 23	Yes	BUY	175	100¢	$175	0xbd4eed…
02-22 04:11:16	us strikes iran by february 21 2026	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xa53c56…
02-19 15:46:12	will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 18 2026 264	No	SELL	286	100¢	$285	0x396788…
02-19 13:52:50	will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 18 2026 264	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x3f468d…
02-19 03:20:10	us strikes iran by february 18 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb1be5a…
02-19 03:19:16	will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 18 2026 264	No	BUY	301	100¢	$300	0x4289a3…
02-18 14:49:30	grmn quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 18 2026 2pt39	Yes	BUY	310	100¢	$310	0x944472…
02-16 06:06:55	us strikes iran by february 15 2026	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xef9f36…
02-13 03:10:47	will bangladesh jamaat e islami win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x50a13a…
02-13 03:09:59	will bangladesh nationalist party win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	224	100¢	$223	0x8c231c…
02-11 14:07:53	will bitcoin reach 100k in february 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa28624…
02-11 14:07:35	will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x562e5b…
02-11 14:07:23	ethereum above 1600 on february 11	Yes	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xb99c7c…
02-08 13:57:43	ethereum above 2500 on february 8	No	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0x2b586e…
02-07 18:37:11	ethereum above 2500 on february 8	No	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0x5803c1…
02-07 13:37:41	ethereum above 2400 on february 7	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xcdc9d8…
02-06 06:10:01	bitcoin above 82k on february 6	No	BUY	310	100¢	$310	0x3f461e…
02-05 08:18:35	bitcoin above 80k on february 5	No	BUY	300	100¢	$299	0xa2e2a4…
02-04 16:38:51	Tria FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2,906	100¢	$2,900	0xaf2f01…
02-04 16:23:51	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	No	SELL	2,900	100¢	$2,897	0x106f86…
02-04 16:08:07	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	No	BUY	2,900	100¢	$2,897	0xe30cfd…
02-04 16:02:39	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	No	SELL	2,635	100¢	$2,633	0xade469…
02-04 16:02:17	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	No	SELL	363	100¢	$362	0xe13959…
02-04 15:59:35	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	No	BUY	2,998	100¢	$2,995	0x65c231…
02-04 15:51:11	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	No	SELL	990	100¢	$988	0xfb7be9…
02-04 15:48:29	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	No	BUY	990	100¢	$986	0x575136…
02-04 15:32:43	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	No	SELL	2,900	100¢	$2,894	0xe923a6…
02-04 15:22:04	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	No	BUY	2,900	100¢	$2,891	0x31f695…
02-04 15:06:08	bitcoin above 82k on february 4	No	SELL	2,900	100¢	$2,897	0x6448be…
02-04 14:49:06	bitcoin above 82k on february 4	No	BUY	822	100¢	$820	0x556e94…
02-04 14:47:48	bitcoin above 82k on february 4	No	BUY	2,078	100¢	$2,074	0xe37a0a…
02-04 14:02:24	bitcoin above 82k on february 4	No	SELL	628	100¢	$626	0x20f57c…