Imaginary-Siding — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.15K

Unrealized P&L

+$545

Hit rate

91.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$214.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.21K

Open exposure

$6.55K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-01 07:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Other

71% 96% +$4,268

Politics

25% 87% -$564

Sports

3% 100% +$410

Tech

1% 100% +$36

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No		+5,412	$5,000	100¢	$5.4K	+$385	10-01 07:03
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	No		+1,163	$1,000	100¢	$1.2K	+$160	09-18 13:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$12.7K	6,791	6,791	+0	Yes	-$678	04-07 20:01
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England?	2	$12.1K	6,104	6,104	+0	No	+$98	07-11 23:59
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	2	$8.2K	4,207	4,207	+0	No	+$203	08-03 07:33
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$7.9K	8,040	0	+8,040	Yes	+$137	03-04 19:55
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	1	$7.8K	7,823	0	+7,823	No	+$23	01-30 12:30
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	4	$7.3K	7,578	0	+7,578	Yes	+$278	01-28 09:41
will alexander zverev win the 2026 australian open	1	$7.0K	7,187	0	+7,187	No	+$187	01-29 06:57
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?	1	$7.0K	7,064	0	+7,064	No	+$64	07-15 08:00
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?	1	$7.0K	7,071	0	+7,071	No	+$71	07-19 07:54
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 England?	1	$6.0K	6,122	0	+6,122	No	+$122	07-16 06:35
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Spain?	1	$6.0K	6,079	0	+6,079	No	+$79	07-14 09:56
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Switzerland?	1	$6.0K	6,042	0	+6,042	No	+$42	07-12 00:00
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Belgium?	1	$6.0K	6,073	0	+6,073	No	+$73	07-10 08:54
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Morocco?	1	$6.0K	6,054	0	+6,054	No	+$54	07-08 09:51
Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	1	$5.0K	5,213	0	+5,213	No	+$213	09-09 08:05
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	3	$5.0K	5,412	0	+5,412	open	—	10-01 07:03
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	1	$4.0K	4,049	0	+4,049	No	+$49	04-08 08:40
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Colombia?	1	$4.0K	4,036	0	+4,036	No	+$36	07-07 08:44
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt5 or more in december 312	1	$4.0K	4,068	0	+4,068	No	+$68	01-04 10:17
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Belgium?	1	$4.0K	4,067	0	+4,067	No	+$77	07-06 19:59
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$3.7K	3,828	0	+3,828	No	+$103	03-19 07:43
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$3.7K	4,218	0	+4,218	No	+$548	05-01 09:42
Iran leadership change by June 30?	1	$3.0K	3,125	0	+3,125	No	+$125	06-01 13:25
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	1	$3.0K	3,124	0	+3,124	No	+$124	08-05 08:31
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	1	$3.0K	3,022	0	+3,022	Yes	+$22	09-10 07:47
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$2.9K	3,088	0	+3,088	Yes	+$188	07-20 15:26
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	2	$2.5K	2,075	2,075	+0	Yes	-$1,479	06-19 05:35
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$2.4K	2,597	0	+2,597	No	+$197	06-25 14:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$2.3K	1,299	1,299	+0	No	+$297	05-01 14:05
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$2.2K	2,442	0	+2,442	Yes	+$242	06-19 06:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-01 07:03:53	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	2,128	94¢	$2,000	0x8033b4…
09-26 07:02:05	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,041	96¢	$1,000	0x217a4f…
09-23 13:33:38	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	1,087	92¢	$1,000	0xf9cfea…
09-18 13:52:36	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,163	86¢	$1,000	0xaf3d13…
09-18 13:51:14	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	2,198	91¢	$2,000	0x5ad6a9…
09-14 16:51:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,299	87¢	$2,000	0x2d9d9c…
09-10 07:51:58	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	2,035	98¢	$2,000	0xc05134…
09-10 07:47:27	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	3,022	99¢	$3,000	0xdec417…
09-09 08:05:36	Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	No	BUY	5,213	96¢	$5,000	0x55510a…
09-08 09:43:57	US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova	Aryna Sabalenka	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0xbc1bb4…
09-07 08:27:06	atp shelton alcaraz 2026 09 08	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	513	78¢	$400	0xbe63fb…
09-07 07:54:00	atp zverev darderi 2026 09 07	Alexander Zverev	BUY	333	90¢	$300	0xd04358…
09-06 06:21:43	US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Taylor Townsend	Aryna Sabalenka	BUY	482	83¢	$400	0xad91b5…
09-06 06:20:34	atp paul alcaraz 2026 09 06	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	482	83¢	$400	0x2e90bf…
09-05 15:37:48	US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Marie Bouzkova	Iga Swiatek	BUY	349	86¢	$300	0x9f21a8…
09-05 15:36:09	US Open WTA: Cristina Bucsa vs Coco Gauff	Coco Gauff	BUY	729	96¢	$700	0xb18d26…
09-05 14:04:46	atp fritz cerundo 2026 09 04	Taylor Fritz	BUY	345	87¢	$300	0xc2d044…
09-03 09:48:15	US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Kamilla Rakhimova	Aryna Sabalenka	BUY	1,064	94¢	$1,000	0x6abaaa…
09-03 09:47:12	atp wu alcaraz 2026 09 04	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	1,087	92¢	$1,000	0xfc5bcb…
09-03 09:45:27	US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Quentin Halys	Alexander Zverev	BUY	353	85¢	$300	0x88b5ba…
09-03 09:44:33	US Open ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Mattia Bellucci	Taylor Fritz	BUY	337	89¢	$300	0x3c2c24…
09-02 13:28:12	US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	753	93¢	$700	0x612fd4…
09-02 13:26:25	US Open WTA: Katie Boulter vs Karolina Muchova	Karolina Muchova	BUY	353	85¢	$300	0x77de84…
09-02 10:18:19	US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Polina Iatcenko	Aryna Sabalenka	BUY	1,042	96¢	$1,000	0xe8f802…
08-30 10:09:15	atp zverev sonego 2026 08 30	Alexander Zverev	BUY	611	93¢	$568	0xe5f592…
08-30 10:04:42	atp safiull alcaraz 2026 08 30	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	617	81¢	$500	0x721aa1…
08-19 15:36:55	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	509	98¢	$500	0x66774b…
08-19 15:33:25	us x iran ceasefire continues through august 25	Yes	BUY	1,053	95¢	$1,000	0x7cc2d4…
08-05 08:39:56	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	1,513	98¢	$1,490	0x77453e…
08-05 08:36:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1,299	77¢	$1,000	0x08ab1e…
08-05 08:33:53	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1,163	86¢	$1,000	0x65a8ab…
08-05 08:31:18	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	3,124	96¢	$3,000	0xb38069…
08-03 07:33:17	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	SELL	4,207	100¢	$4,203	0x0d8a2d…
07-20 15:26:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,088	94¢	$2,900	0x25480f…
07-20 15:20:46	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	4,207	95¢	$4,000	0xe38421…
07-19 07:54:06	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?	No	BUY	7,071	99¢	$7,000	0x3d6358…
07-16 06:35:08	Exact Score: France 3 - 3 England?	No	BUY	6,122	98¢	$6,000	0xca306e…
07-15 08:00:52	Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?	No	BUY	7,064	99¢	$7,000	0x133eee…
07-14 09:56:37	Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Spain?	No	BUY	6,079	99¢	$6,000	0x139ff8…
07-12 00:00:59	Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Switzerland?	No	BUY	6,042	99¢	$6,000	0x43e575…
07-11 23:59:59	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England?	No	SELL	6,104	100¢	$6,098	0x42bae2…
07-11 07:29:53	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England?	No	BUY	6,104	98¢	$6,000	0x491573…
07-10 08:54:23	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Belgium?	No	BUY	6,073	99¢	$6,000	0x2478da…
07-08 09:51:05	Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Morocco?	No	BUY	6,054	99¢	$6,000	0xa6acce…
07-07 08:48:59	atp sinner struff 2026 07 07	Jannik Sinner	BUY	1,064	94¢	$1,000	0xfffef3…
07-07 08:44:44	Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Colombia?	No	BUY	4,036	99¢	$4,000	0xc0adbf…
07-06 19:59:05	Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Belgium?	No	BUY	4,067	98¢	$3,990	0xeaf8da…
06-25 14:30:08	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2,597	92¢	$2,400	0x1594fe…
06-19 06:03:29	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,760	91¢	$1,600	0xf7500b…
06-19 05:35:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	2,075	25¢	$521	0xd0028f…
06-16 08:50:21	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	2,075	96¢	$2,000	0xb3c2bc…
06-13 07:40:22	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	682	88¢	$600	0xb43862…
06-13 07:38:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,005	100¢	$1,000	0xb1993a…
06-12 12:49:16	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt6t	No	BUY	1,028	97¢	$1,000	0x46cb0b…
06-11 15:02:37	israel closes its airspace by june 11	No	BUY	1,031	97¢	$1,000	0x8a5ec9…
06-01 14:18:14	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	825	97¢	$800	0x4c6630…
06-01 14:10:13	Starmer out by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2,046	98¢	$2,000	0x36dd21…
06-01 14:02:57	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,033	97¢	$1,000	0x3b2fa5…
06-01 13:25:55	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	3,125	96¢	$3,000	0x4be4de…
05-01 14:10:18	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	1,140	93¢	$1,060	0x1ff336…
05-01 14:08:50	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	2,000	90¢	$1,800	0xe8fb81…
05-01 14:07:36	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	No	SELL	1,095	100¢	$1,094	0xa12c42…
05-01 14:05:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	1,299	100¢	$1,297	0xfd2fcd…
05-01 09:42:02	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	3,261	92¢	$3,000	0x37b1d6…
04-22 08:46:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	1,340	93¢	$1,250	0x8e8394…
04-17 13:49:38	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	957	70¢	$670	0xb8e26e…
04-17 13:13:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	SELL	1,053	55¢	$578	0xb770c0…
04-16 08:45:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	BUY	1,053	95¢	$1,000	0x93f4bf…
04-16 08:41:36	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	2,128	94¢	$2,000	0x8d2322…
04-16 08:39:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	1,299	77¢	$1,000	0x967ead…
04-08 08:40:41	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	4,049	99¢	$4,000	0x155858…
04-08 08:39:05	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	No	BUY	1,095	91¢	$1,000	0xf8c1d5…
04-08 08:37:21	will tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	1,250	80¢	$1,000	0x3e7839…
04-07 20:01:05	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	6,791	89¢	$6,022	0xf1a501…
04-05 08:42:23	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	2,722	99¢	$2,700	0xa800c3…
04-02 09:44:31	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	4,069	98¢	$4,000	0xd0313c…
03-27 10:31:17	iran leadership change by march 31	No	BUY	1,042	96¢	$1,000	0x678534…
03-19 07:45:11	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	2,053	97¢	$2,000	0xb215f4…
03-19 07:43:29	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	3,828	97¢	$3,725	0xad34d0…
03-04 19:55:07	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	8,040	98¢	$7,903	0x96a995…
01-30 12:30:36	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	7,823	100¢	$7,800	0xec8df1…
01-29 09:19:24	wta sabalen svitoli 2026 01 29	Sabalenka	BUY	659	91¢	$600	0x489935…
01-29 06:57:30	will alexander zverev win the 2026 australian open	No	BUY	7,187	97¢	$7,000	0x6d745a…
01-28 09:41:15	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1,606	100¢	$1,600	0x09b4b8…
01-27 09:52:09	us strikes iran by january 27 2026 458 884 547 617 932	No	BUY	1,515	99¢	$1,500	0xf73e49…
01-25 15:13:10	us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	No	BUY	1,034	97¢	$1,000	0xf15d92…
01-24 15:04:44	atp alcaraz paul 2026 01 25	Alcaraz	BUY	1,136	88¢	$1,000	0x42b2be…
01-24 08:06:16	atp zandsch djokovi 2026 01 24	Djokovic	BUY	1,099	91¢	$1,000	0x0a5e38…
01-19 16:09:50	us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	No	BUY	1,087	92¢	$1,000	0xf732b6…
01-19 08:09:38	atp martine djokovi 2026 01 18	Djokovic	BUY	1,049	95¢	$1,000	0xddcc39…
01-16 09:38:16	us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	No	BUY	1,064	94¢	$1,000	0x66fd0d…
01-15 08:42:28	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1,264	95¢	$1,200	0x04f40e…
01-15 08:41:12	us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	No	BUY	1,085	92¢	$1,000	0x8424cd…
01-14 08:52:44	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	2,088	96¢	$2,000	0x23af68…
01-14 08:50:40	us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	No	BUY	2,128	94¢	$2,000	0x46026a…
01-12 09:42:24	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	2,620	95¢	$2,500	0x8fc532…
01-04 10:17:13	will monthly inflation increase by 0pt5 or more in december 312	No	BUY	4,068	98¢	$4,000	0xafc6b5…