Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$479

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

11.5%

Resolved

121

Trades

879

lifetime

Volume

$20.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-07-26

last 10-27 07:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Other

62% 5% -$329

Politics

16% 10% -$50

Tech

9% 13% -$92

Crypto

8% 0% -$6

Sports

4% 0% -$2

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran full airspace closure by august 15	4	$331	1,031	1,031	+0	No	+$0	08-04 02:51
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	6	$320	384	384	+0	No	-$26	08-14 04:21
israel closes its airspace by august 15	4	$296	192	192	+0	No	-$2	07-29 17:31
Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	5	$222	255	255	+0	open	—	08-07 09:09
Will Grüne win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	2	$200	179	179	+0	No	-$11	09-05 04:34
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds by July 31, 2026?	2	$195	254	254	+0	No	-$3	07-28 15:14
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	2	$191	228	228	+0	open	—	07-27 18:21
Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?	2	$188	241	241	+0	Yes	+$0	07-27 14:47
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	4	$184	205	205	+0	Yes	-$3	08-06 20:22
russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	5	$179	171	171	+0	open	—	08-24 10:38
Will Drake release a new album by December 31?	7	$170	177	177	+0	open	—	09-24 23:43
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	4	$169	164	164	+0	open	—	09-07 19:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	3	$159	202	202	+0	No	-$2	09-03 03:33
Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 5% to 19.99%?	3	$153	101	101	+0	open	—	10-09 07:58
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?	2	$153	139	139	+0	Yes	+$6	08-04 18:40
Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?	2	$152	429	429	+0	Yes	+$1	07-28 22:58
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$150	151	151	+0	open	—	09-05 15:26
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch?	5	$147	166	166	+0	open	—	10-03 05:50
Will XRP dip to $1.00 by December 31, 2026?	2	$145	102	102	+0	open	—	10-13 07:48
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	2	$145	94	94	+0	open	—	08-03 11:10
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	2	$141	89	89	+0	No	-$1	08-04 01:48
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	2	$141	101	101	+0	open	—	10-03 11:08
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	4	$139	110	110	+0	Yes	-$4	08-01 22:26
Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027?	2	$138	101	101	+0	open	—	08-26 22:58
Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	2	$136	101	101	+0	Yes	-$1	09-25 23:02
Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$135	101	101	+0	Yes	-$2	10-19 11:55
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by september 30 20260810131538351	6	$134	142	142	+0	Yes	$0	08-23 10:44
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	3	$134	101	101	+0	No	-$1	09-21 00:49
Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	5	$134	138	138	+0	open	—	10-27 06:43
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?	3	$132	101	101	+0	open	—	09-27 04:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 07:25:29	Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x031561…
10-27 07:07:14	Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	30	32¢	$10	0x371a20…
10-27 06:43:56	Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	25¢	$6	0xac9903…
10-27 05:29:20	Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0x5ece3f…
10-26 20:14:15	Will Jessica Tisch be out as New York City Police Commissioner by December 31?	Yes	BUY	82	23¢	$19	0x4c5936…
10-26 19:15:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out?	Yes	SELL	25	45¢	$11	0x2158d8…
10-26 16:13:59	Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	SELL	36	38¢	$14	0xb32e77…
10-26 16:13:33	Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	12	39¢	$5	0xd53d88…
10-26 16:13:33	Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	24	39¢	$9	0x859321…
10-26 15:24:39	Will Alysa Liu rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in the US of 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	29¢	$6	0xb714fb…
10-26 14:30:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out?	Yes	SELL	43	47¢	$20	0xa40f8b…
10-26 10:40:00	Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out?	Yes	BUY	67	51¢	$34	0x58cbac…
10-26 10:22:29	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	77	28¢	$21	0x3889e2…
10-26 10:07:18	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	77	35¢	$27	0xd59914…
10-26 07:13:30	Will Drake Maye have 3,500+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	18	14¢	$3	0x991382…
10-26 06:48:29	Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	27¢	$4	0xc3695a…
10-26 05:08:05	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	90	17¢	$15	0x691f3b…
10-26 04:56:44	Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	28¢	$10	0xded7b2…
10-26 04:45:00	Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0xc67308…
10-26 04:12:14	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	58	37¢	$21	0xd9e966…
10-25 22:03:12	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	90	24¢	$22	0x0ee14b…
10-25 21:43:35	Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x520e7c…
10-25 21:09:44	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0xcdce13…
10-25 21:09:44	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x4738e1…
10-25 21:09:44	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	23	39¢	$9	0x41507a…
10-25 20:37:14	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon be 2,200,000 or more?	Yes	SELL	89	15¢	$13	0x4ed327…
10-25 20:25:27	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon be 2,200,000 or more?	Yes	BUY	89	19¢	$17	0xa8ad9e…
10-25 19:37:53	QFEX FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	34	51¢	$17	0x85386d…
10-25 18:16:38	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	36¢	$3	0xcd22e7…
10-25 18:16:18	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x911f1e…
10-25 13:47:42	Will the median home value in the US be between $407,000 and $411,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	101	54¢	$54	0xcff340…
10-25 13:46:05	Will the median home value in the US be between $407,000 and $411,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	101	59¢	$60	0x6435b4…
10-25 12:32:33	QFEX FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0x825b67…
10-25 12:31:48	QFEX FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	34	57¢	$19	0xf4472f…
10-25 11:13:50	Will Lamar Jackson have 2,999.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	88	46¢	$41	0x950a0c…
10-25 04:49:38	Will Illinois have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	92	55¢	$51	0x23aa87…
10-25 04:12:20	Will the longest game of the 2026 MLB Postseason last 11+ innings?	No	SELL	38	75¢	$28	0xba4904…
10-25 03:11:21	Will California have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Yes	SELL	44	43¢	$19	0xf06621…
10-25 02:51:00	Will the longest game of the 2026 MLB Postseason last 11+ innings?	No	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0xa861ce…
10-25 02:51:00	Will the longest game of the 2026 MLB Postseason last 11+ innings?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x043713…
10-25 01:24:23	Will Lamar Jackson have 2,999.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	74	69¢	$51	0xc2ff9d…
10-25 01:24:21	Will Lamar Jackson have 2,999.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x224192…
10-24 22:43:33	Will Minnesota have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	7	66¢	$5	0x8f5357…
10-24 22:41:45	Will Illinois have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	14	58¢	$8	0xfe21c8…
10-24 22:21:39	Will Minnesota have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x18c100…
10-24 21:43:39	Will Illinois have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	106	65¢	$69	0x221042…
10-24 21:31:57	Will Florida State have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	0	34¢	$0	0xc84b14…
10-24 21:03:47	Will Florida State have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x84abc8…
10-24 21:03:47	Will Florida State have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0x3d82ab…
10-24 20:23:32	Will Minnesota have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0xa2d1b6…
10-24 20:07:48	Will Minnesota have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	18	71¢	$13	0x83c7d4…
10-24 20:07:48	Will Minnesota have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x7f39b7…
10-24 20:07:48	Will California have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Yes	BUY	44	53¢	$23	0x1b0fa3…
10-24 20:07:47	Will Minnesota have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	9	71¢	$6	0xa560f0…
10-24 19:28:29	Will Florida State have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xd54035…
10-24 17:21:41	Will Texas Tech have an undefeated CFB regular season?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xfcfefb…
10-24 17:21:41	Will Texas Tech have an undefeated CFB regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x78851d…
10-24 17:21:41	Will Texas Tech have an undefeated CFB regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x441b5b…
10-24 15:53:20	Will Ashton Jeanty have 974.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x7dc783…
10-24 15:52:27	Will Ashton Jeanty have 974.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x32b3dd…
10-24 15:23:09	Le Pen endorses non-Bardella PM by April 17, 2027?	No	SELL	45	74¢	$34	0xea4c06…
10-24 15:20:44	Le Pen endorses non-Bardella PM by April 17, 2027?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x3a72c8…
10-24 15:19:48	Le Pen endorses non-Bardella PM by April 17, 2027?	No	BUY	65	76¢	$50	0x637eee…
10-24 15:06:09	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0xb12c44…
10-24 15:06:09	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4	43¢	$2	0x25c8a3…
10-24 12:22:15	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	BUY	24	43¢	$10	0x6fefa9…
10-24 08:00:59	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027?	Yes	SELL	56	34¢	$19	0x934d76…
10-24 06:51:12	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027?	Yes	BUY	56	42¢	$24	0xa721e7…
10-24 02:26:42	Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	38	19¢	$7	0xe6bdcd…
10-23 23:42:09	Will Omarion Hampton have 949.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x6a741e…
10-23 23:12:24	Will Omarion Hampton have 949.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x92c2d0…
10-23 17:49:48	Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x21013a…
10-23 17:49:48	Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	17	19¢	$3	0x02e4f1…
10-23 02:02:03	Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by October 31?	Yes	SELL	51	11¢	$6	0x1c1856…
10-23 01:13:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	76	48¢	$36	0x15d655…
10-23 00:28:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	76	49¢	$37	0xd6c763…
10-22 22:48:15	Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x5082fc…
10-22 22:40:30	Will Silkeborg be relegated from the 2026-27 Denmark Superliga?	No	SELL	36	63¢	$22	0x27886f…
10-22 22:38:36	Will Silkeborg be relegated from the 2026-27 Denmark Superliga?	No	SELL	40	63¢	$25	0xf83c4d…
10-22 22:31:06	Will Silkeborg be relegated from the 2026-27 Denmark Superliga?	No	BUY	76	64¢	$48	0x957c86…
10-22 21:58:47	Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	61¢	$9	0xc71c2b…
10-22 20:59:12	Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xe00c36…
10-22 18:56:42	Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by October 31?	Yes	BUY	51	18¢	$9	0x8f5807…
10-22 18:48:17	Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	SELL	50	64¢	$32	0x11fd45…
10-22 18:29:24	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	44	22¢	$10	0x0a1c81…
10-22 17:38:35	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	89	20¢	$18	0xecb06b…
10-22 17:36:38	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	102	20¢	$20	0x950cd5…
10-22 17:28:11	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0xe95779…
10-22 17:19:06	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	153	26¢	$40	0x9ac778…
10-22 11:44:36	Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xf5f2e6…
10-22 11:44:35	Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	BUY	44	67¢	$30	0xbdc348…
10-21 22:12:38	Will Nebraska have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	9	65¢	$6	0x080a98…
10-21 22:09:17	Will Nebraska have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x2dadbe…
10-21 22:07:36	Will Nebraska have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0x98fc60…
10-21 22:04:50	Will Nebraska have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	24	65¢	$16	0x158c42…
10-21 21:24:26	Will the Baltimore Ravens have more than 12.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?	Yes	SELL	19	20¢	$4	0x36410f…
10-21 21:23:50	Will the Baltimore Ravens have more than 12.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?	Yes	BUY	19	20¢	$4	0x686b9f…
10-21 04:55:42	SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0xe78e52…
10-21 04:55:03	SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x9d972d…
10-20 22:11:23	Will Coventry City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	SELL	15	48¢	$7	0x6393bc…