(anonymous) 0x7a8e51…a889d8
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Realized P&L
-$37
Unrealized P&L
+$43
Hit rate
95.1%
Resolved
469
Trades
808
lifetime
Volume
$15.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$19
Open exposure
$631
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-17
last 10-28 00:31
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 38 days
Categories
Other
53% 94% -$16
Politics
44% 95% -$25
Tech
3% 86% -$9
Pop-Culture
1% 100% +$4
Crypto
0% 100% +$9
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
32 active days in 12wk • peak 86 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +23 $20 100¢ $23 +$4 10-12 00:32
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +24 $20 94¢ $23 +$3 10-13 12:31
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? No +24 $20 95¢ $23 +$3 10-13 00:31
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026? No +23 $20 97¢ $22 +$3 10-20 00:31
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +23 $19 95¢ $22 +$3 10-11 12:33
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%? No +22 $20 100¢ $22 +$2 10-18 12:31
Will there be no Hormuz agreement? Yes +23 $20 93¢ $22 +$2 10-15 00:32
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +22 $20 98¢ $22 +$2 10-12 14:19
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%? No +22 $20 100¢ $22 +$2 10-15 00:32
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +22 $19 98¢ $21 +$2 10-12 00:32
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +22 $19 98¢ $21 +$2 10-19 12:31
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +22 $19 95¢ $21 +$2 10-12 00:32
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? Yes +21 $20 99¢ $21 +$1 10-12 00:31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No +21 $20 99¢ $21 +$1 10-12 14:19
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? Yes +22 $19 95¢ $21 +$2 10-11 12:32
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +21 $20 99¢ $21 +$1 10-12 14:19
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? No +21 $19 98¢ $21 +$1 10-18 12:31
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +21 $20 99¢ $21 +$1 10-12 14:19
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? No +21 $19 98¢ $21 +$1 10-12 00:31
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? No +22 $19 94¢ $21 +$1 10-12 14:20
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? No +21 $20 99¢ $20 +$1 10-11 12:31
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? Yes +21 $20 98¢ $20 +$1 10-19 12:31
Will the Republican Party win the TX-26 House seat? Yes +21 $20 98¢ $20 +$1 10-15 00:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No +21 $20 99¢ $20 +$1 10-12 00:31
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? No +21 $20 98¢ $20 +$1 10-12 00:31
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +21 $20 99¢ $20 +$1 10-11 12:31
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? No +21 $20 98¢ $20 +$0 10-11 12:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +20 $20 99¢ $20 +$0 10-11 12:31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +21 $20 97¢ $20 +$1 10-18 12:31
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? No +21 $19 97¢ $20 +$1 10-18 00:31