Small-Observation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$566

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.6%

Resolved

2,971

Trades

3,862

lifetime

Volume

$59.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-25

last 10-29 06:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 164 days

Categories

Other

85% 87% -$343

Crypto

10% 86% -$295

Sports

4% 83% +$42

Politics

1% 74% +$28

Tech

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	16	$135	109	79	+30	Up	-$5	05-06 00:56
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$122	76	76	+0	No	+$22	04-12 18:37
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	4	$116	60	60	+0	No	+$3	05-20 18:51
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	2	$109	59	59	+0	No	+$9	04-01 10:59
highest temperature in sao paulo on april 7 2026 30c	2	$106	56	56	+0	No	+$6	04-07 22:26
atp alcaraz baez 2026 04 08	2	$102	52	52	+0	Carlos Alcaraz	+$2	04-07 16:35
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$102	54	54	+0	Yes	+$2	04-01 22:47
atp humbert sinner 2026 04 08	2	$102	52	52	+0	Jannik Sinner	+$2	04-07 12:19
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	2	$101	52	52	+0	No	+$1	04-01 22:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	4	$97	102	0	+102	Up	+$4	04-29 12:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	2	$95	101	0	+101	Up	+$6	04-29 12:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	4	$94	100	0	+100	Down	-$94	04-30 14:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	4	$92	100	0	+100	Up	+$7	04-30 13:04
Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 0.5	2	$92	100	0	+100	Over	+$8	10-11 15:40
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 12?	5	$91	50	50	+0	Yes	+$4	05-12 20:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	2	$90	100	0	+100	Down	+$10	04-29 00:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	5	$86	100	0	+100	Down	+$14	04-30 13:10
highest temperature in los angeles on april 6 2026 68 69f	2	$82	42	42	+0	No	+$2	04-06 23:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	3	$82	90	0	+90	Down	+$8	04-29 01:54
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	3	$82	42	42	+0	No	+$2	03-31 20:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	4	$80	90	0	+90	Up	+$10	04-29 00:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	3	$78	110	0	+110	Up	-$78	04-29 00:19
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 on May 13?	2	$78	50	50	+0	Yes	-$17	05-13 17:34
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be at least 2.7%?	2	$78	54	54	+0	No	-$22	04-07 23:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	3	$77	100	0	+100	Down	+$23	04-29 00:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	2	$76	100	0	+100	Up	+$24	04-29 12:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	2	$75	82	0	+82	Down	+$7	04-29 01:24
atp bergs zverev 2026 04 09	2	$67	38	37	+0	Alexander Zverev	+$7	04-09 13:07
tsla close above 350 on april 8 2026	2	$67	37	37	+0	No	+$7	04-08 21:31
atp milavsk ficovic 2026 04 06	2	$66	37	36	+0	Juan Pablo Ficovich	+$7	04-08 01:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 06:29:44	Pan Pacific Open: Elena Rybakina vs Yulia Putintseva	Elena Rybakina	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xb66cd4…
10-29 01:36:41	Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 205.5	Over	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xfd1fd6…
10-29 01:36:41	Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 205.5	Over	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x176214…
10-28 23:33:16	Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xec7d68…
10-28 22:25:52	76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 217.5	Over	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x08faa0…
10-28 21:51:28	Fluminense FC vs. SC Internacional: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x0c4ca3…
10-28 19:10:55	AC Monza vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xf5173a…
10-28 18:33:25	Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5)	Manchester City FC	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xb64b02…
10-28 18:27:05	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-28?	No	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x462b49…
10-28 18:21:49	Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x462504…
10-28 17:56:08	Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)	Liverpool FC	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x74c0cf…
10-28 16:25:55	Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)	AFC Bournemouth	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xee129a…
10-28 16:00:47	AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x9ba641…
10-28 15:59:38	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xaf8449…
10-28 15:50:43	Spread: Udinese Calcio (-1.5)	Parma Calcio 1913	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xbbc973…
10-27 21:49:39	Nets vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xa891cc…
10-26 21:58:21	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xdcbeab…
10-26 21:43:27	Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x841743…
10-26 21:35:27	CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x020e25…
10-26 21:15:48	CA Unión vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x7a73f4…
10-26 21:09:08	Coritiba FBC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xdf3485…
10-26 20:36:20	Spread: Suns (-5.5)	Thunder	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x445e33…
10-25 22:38:20	Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 211.5	Over	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x113893…
10-25 21:28:23	Erste Bank Open: Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xc12268…
10-25 20:10:12	CA River Plate vs. Racing Club: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x841ebd…
10-25 19:41:47	Spread: Udinese Calcio (-1.5)	AC Milan	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x6b8adf…
10-25 16:48:23	Udinese Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xbe9040…
10-25 16:42:48	Fritz vs. Tsitsipas: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5	Over	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x673a2b…
10-25 15:49:41	Fokina vs. Bergs: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5	Over	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xb93245…
10-25 15:45:23	Stricker vs. Ruud: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5	Over	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x8cf009…
10-25 15:31:27	Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)	Seahawks	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x814002…
10-25 12:48:00	Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)	Newcastle United FC	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xa4d0ca…
10-25 12:35:44	Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x58ca85…
10-25 11:47:44	AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xc2b57c…
10-25 08:06:36	FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x6568a4…
10-25 07:53:53	Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez	Elena Rybakina	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0xfb762b…
10-25 05:34:09	SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x0040d4…
10-25 05:29:15	SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x1852d1…
10-25 04:55:53	Spread: Frosinone Calcio (-1.5)	Atalanta BC	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xca1f25…
10-25 04:33:50	Atalanta BC vs. Frosinone Calcio: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0xa56532…
10-25 04:33:50	Atalanta BC vs. Frosinone Calcio: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x7401c8…
10-25 03:15:17	Olympique de Marseille vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xd2cc17…
10-25 02:30:15	Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x7a0a12…
10-25 02:03:42	Spread: CA Independiente (-1.5)	CA Boca Juniors	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xafda6f…
10-25 02:03:05	CA Independiente vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x5fe007…
10-25 02:01:29	Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)	FC Barcelona	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x78f7ff…
10-25 01:53:18	Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)	FC Bayern München	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x319c56…
10-25 01:51:30	Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)	Olympique de Marseille	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x63c4c5…
10-25 01:17:41	Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x0e2764…
10-25 00:44:48	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xe6f2f7…
10-25 00:32:41	Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)	Manchester United FC	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x2bd149…
10-25 00:25:24	Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5)	Liverpool FC	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x5a6157…
10-25 00:06:42	Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x7439de…
10-24 23:31:56	Santos FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x0ae93e…
10-24 21:45:08	Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)	Fluminense FC	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x69088c…
10-24 20:38:05	Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)	EC Bahia	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x0810a5…
10-24 20:14:56	Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x51286d…
10-24 20:02:26	SE Palmeiras vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	9	84¢	$8	0x9437f5…
10-24 20:02:26	SE Palmeiras vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x3c7d9d…
10-24 19:54:00	Spread: CA Newell's Old Boys (-1.5)	CA San Lorenzo de Almagro	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x07b537…
10-24 19:51:53	CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x879bbf…
10-24 19:26:24	SC Internacional vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x743319…
10-24 18:48:45	Spread: CSyD Defensa y Justicia (-1.5)	CA Talleres	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x8a151a…
10-24 18:47:27	Spread: EC Vitória (-1.5)	CA Paranaense	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x0fbf24…
10-24 17:56:30	Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	No	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0xd45740…
10-24 17:56:30	Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x68004b…
10-24 15:39:29	SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x1b007b…
10-24 12:35:36	Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	4	82¢	$4	0xe741b5…
10-24 12:28:48	Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x0fb405…
10-24 11:28:53	Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)	Manchester City FC	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xa87438…
10-24 09:35:30	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x512755…
10-24 09:34:35	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xf4effd…
10-24 08:52:33	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0x3677aa…
10-23 17:17:09	Spread: AC Monza (-1.5)	Torino FC	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xbe27c8…
10-22 20:22:00	Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-10-22?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xf00e5a…
10-22 18:32:03	AFC Bournemouth vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	14	82¢	$12	0x48e3d9…
10-22 18:22:39	Spread: NK Celje (-1.5)	FC Red Bull Salzburg	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xea47ee…
10-22 18:17:14	Beşiktaş JK vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0xf8d4ba…
10-22 18:10:50	Beşiktaş JK vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x8dc9a3…
10-22 18:07:27	Will NK Celje win on 2026-10-22?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xf048be…
10-22 17:55:41	AFC Bournemouth vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x244224…
10-22 17:49:09	Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)	Olympique Lyonnais	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x5eedba…
10-22 17:48:51	CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Team to Advance	CR Flamengo	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0x4a2e7d…
10-22 17:46:35	Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)	Beşiktaş JK	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xec1f9c…
10-22 17:01:48	Beşiktaş JK vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x52ab67…
10-22 16:53:42	CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Team to Advance	CR Flamengo	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xf005a4…
10-22 15:45:08	Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5)	AC Milan	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xfc682b…
10-22 15:33:00	Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2026-10-22?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xe05d7a…
10-22 11:02:24	Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)	Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x35a943…
10-21 19:15:29	Montevideo City Torque vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe62d1e…
10-21 19:15:27	Montevideo City Torque vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	35	91¢	$32	0xed1a77…
10-21 18:57:42	Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	40	77¢	$31	0xe940c3…
10-21 18:43:18	SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0xf4cd70…
10-21 18:32:17	SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: Team to Advance	SE Palmeiras	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0xa48627…
10-21 18:24:30	Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 219.5	Over	BUY	28	80¢	$22	0xed1c02…
10-21 18:04:21	Real Madrid CF vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0xd3c0da…
10-21 18:02:08	Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 219.5	Over	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x17b99d…
10-21 18:00:30	Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 224.5	Over	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x202b73…
10-21 17:51:57	Levante UD vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0x388b87…
10-21 17:45:17	Club Brugge KV vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	40	85¢	$34	0xc24533…