Lumpy-Warlord — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

86.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$18.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$237

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-16

last 06-08 23:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

40% — —

Sports

29% 100% +$0

Other

18% 50% $-12

Crypto

11% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will nikola joki win the 2026 nba all star game mvp 243	2	$2.1K	2,104	0	+2,104	open	—	02-16 00:05
ucl ben rma 2026 02 17 rma	1	$1.5K	3,169	0	+3,169	open	—	02-16 16:23
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$1.2K	632	632	+0	open	—	03-01 01:30
will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	2	$1.2K	618	618	+0	open	—	02-28 07:01
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	2	$1.2K	618	618	+0	open	—	02-28 08:15
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	7	$1.1K	805	795	+10	open	—	03-11 21:16
will kazakhstan record a gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics 135	3	$714	616	99	+517	open	—	02-19 04:19
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$618	619	0	+619	open	—	02-28 08:16
will the us next strike iran on february 22 2026 et	1	$616	617	0	+617	open	—	02-23 19:23
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	1	$616	616	0	+616	open	—	02-23 03:05
donald trump of truth social posts april 7 april 14 0 19	1	$516	517	0	+517	open	—	04-04 21:34
will spain record a medal at the 2026 winter olympics 543	1	$515	516	0	+516	open	—	02-19 21:03
will trump say epic fury during miami address	1	$509	509	0	+509	open	—	03-09 21:00
will the dhs shutdown end between march 4 7 2026	1	$508	509	0	+509	open	—	03-07 00:26
Will Atalanta reach the UEFA Champions League final?	2	$446	223	223	+0	open	—	03-17 19:50
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$427	214	214	+0	open	—	03-18 04:24
will trump say sleepy joe during kentucky visit	1	$396	397	0	+397	open	—	03-11 22:28
donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 0 19	1	$395	396	0	+396	open	—	03-24 19:47
will trump say scam or fraud 3 times during memphis roundtable 566	1	$250	250	0	+250	open	—	03-23 19:21
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	3	$247	400	400	+0	open	—	05-13 21:23
will trump say green new scam during cabinet meeting on march 26	1	$231	231	0	+231	open	—	03-26 17:26
will trump say fema during memphis roundtable 743	1	$230	230	0	+230	open	—	03-23 19:21
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$228	228	0	+228	No	+$0	05-12 00:22
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April?	1	$217	218	0	+218	open	—	04-19 22:09
will brazil record a gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics 627	2	$198	99	99	+0	open	—	02-18 07:26
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League final?	2	$154	77	77	+0	open	—	03-17 19:50
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	1	$150	150	0	+150	open	—	04-19 22:08
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	1	$150	150	0	+150	open	—	04-19 22:08
will trump say maduro during cabinet meeting on march 26	1	$120	120	0	+120	open	—	03-26 17:25
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	1	$119	120	0	+120	open	—	03-24 19:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 23:42:06	will trump say los angeles or la during tele rally 20260608165428978	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0xc52723…
06-08 23:41:39	will trump say migrant crime during tele rally 20260608165428974	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x8c5da8…
06-08 23:41:01	will jordan clarkson score 50 points in any game of the 2026 nba finals 20260603023421912	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x64dbc3…
06-06 21:24:28	will jordan clarkson score 50 points in any game of the 2026 nba finals 20260603023421912	No	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0xbc6b54…
06-06 21:24:12	will luke kornet score 50 points in any game of the 2026 nba finals 20260603023421909	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x2e61d3…
06-06 21:24:01	will carter bryant score 50 points in any game of the 2026 nba finals 20260603023421906	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x66bdb2…
06-06 21:23:52	will mitchell robinson score 50 points in any game of the 2026 nba finals 20260603023421911	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf450fa…
05-26 23:27:33	Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0xaf072b…
05-26 23:27:00	Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x312077…
05-26 23:25:34	Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xbc8d0e…
05-13 22:27:55	Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 12000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	Yes	SELL	45	3¢	$1	0x43c5cc…
05-13 21:23:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	30¢	$61	0x2579f6…
05-13 21:23:46	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	31¢	$61	0x1cb8bf…
05-13 21:16:34	Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 12000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0xc6c6b2…
05-13 21:16:29	Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 12000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	Yes	SELL	7	25¢	$2	0xd13766…
05-13 21:14:02	Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 12000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	Yes	BUY	1	39¢	$0	0x78cbef…
05-13 21:14:02	Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 12000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	Yes	BUY	39	39¢	$15	0x748466…
05-13 21:11:42	Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 11000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	No	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0xfdd6e6…
05-13 21:10:28	Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 11000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x245cb8…
05-13 21:09:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	400	31¢	$125	0xc21c1c…
05-13 21:03:41	Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 12000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0xf2cef3…
05-13 21:00:14	Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 12000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x2e1545…
05-12 00:22:39	Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	228	100¢	$228	0x3c8580…
04-19 22:09:48	Will XRP reach $3.00 in April?	No	BUY	218	100¢	$217	0x368fbe…
04-19 22:08:52	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x418b26…
04-19 22:08:24	Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x4ad3da…
04-04 21:34:21	donald trump of truth social posts april 7 april 14 0 19	No	BUY	517	100¢	$516	0x1e8919…
03-26 17:26:01	will trump say green new scam during cabinet meeting on march 26	No	BUY	231	100¢	$231	0xe1eb76…
03-26 17:25:33	will trump say maduro during cabinet meeting on march 26	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x25c487…
03-26 17:25:21	will trump say hamas or hezbollah during cabinet meeting on march 26	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x04e529…
03-24 19:47:21	donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 0 19	No	BUY	396	100¢	$395	0x128f07…
03-24 19:12:59	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$119	0x6cfd68…
03-23 19:22:05	will trump say excursion during memphis roundtable 499	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4bdbbd…
03-23 19:21:51	will trump say fema during memphis roundtable 743	No	BUY	230	100¢	$230	0x885f50…
03-23 19:21:43	will trump say scam or fraud 3 times during memphis roundtable 566	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x0a0fa5…
03-23 19:21:35	will trump say biden or obama 7 times during memphis roundtable 863	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xe17bc0…
03-18 04:24:01	Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	214	100¢	$214	0x9fcdf0…
03-17 19:50:55	Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League final?	No	SELL	77	100¢	$77	0xbfce8a…
03-17 19:50:45	Will Atalanta reach the UEFA Champions League final?	No	SELL	223	100¢	$223	0x863730…
03-17 19:46:43	Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League final?	No	BUY	77	100¢	$77	0xaf27f2…
03-17 19:46:33	Will Atalanta reach the UEFA Champions League final?	No	BUY	223	100¢	$223	0xfa8461…
03-16 04:25:13	Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	214	100¢	$214	0xf2c3d8…
03-16 04:24:37	will trump be said at the oscars	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x717b24…
03-16 04:24:25	will sex be said at the oscars	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xeeffc6…
03-16 04:24:15	will greenland be said at the oscars	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x83923e…
03-11 22:28:19	will trump say sleepy joe during kentucky visit	Yes	BUY	397	100¢	$396	0x9d3b9e…
03-11 22:26:59	will trump say epic fury during kentucky visit	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x100f5c…
03-11 22:25:51	will trump say job 20 times during kentucky visit	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xda1aad…
03-11 21:16:17	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	72	64¢	$46	0x606dce…
03-11 20:54:55	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	324	66¢	$214	0x72945a…
03-11 20:53:45	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	400	66¢	$263	0x9889c0…
03-11 20:34:39	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x5daaed…
03-11 20:12:41	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	400	66¢	$264	0x937a36…
03-11 20:07:15	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	362	66¢	$237	0x6db2c3…
03-11 20:04:57	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0x870782…
03-09 21:00:23	will trump say epic fury during miami address	Yes	BUY	509	100¢	$509	0x073258…
03-07 00:26:17	will the dhs shutdown end between march 4 7 2026	No	BUY	509	100¢	$508	0x11f678…
03-01 04:28:29	will the dhs shutdown end between february 28 march 3 2026	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0x2ac111…
03-01 01:30:29	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	632	98¢	$620	0x0421ec…
02-28 22:40:27	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	632	98¢	$619	0x304bf7…
02-28 08:16:05	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	619	100¢	$618	0x561c36…
02-28 08:15:45	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	618	100¢	$618	0x6cdda6…
02-28 07:02:15	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	618	100¢	$616	0xeb3322…
02-28 07:01:59	will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	No	SELL	618	100¢	$617	0x914969…
02-25 18:21:52	will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	No	BUY	618	100¢	$617	0xec6347…
02-23 19:23:20	will the us next strike iran on february 22 2026 et	No	BUY	617	100¢	$616	0x7f731d…
02-23 03:05:26	us strikes iran by february 22 2026	No	BUY	616	100¢	$616	0x0ece15…
02-19 21:03:58	will spain record a medal at the 2026 winter olympics 543	Yes	BUY	516	100¢	$515	0x6d5e88…
02-19 21:03:26	will sweden record a medal at the 2026 winter olympics 565	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0432a1…
02-19 04:19:06	will kazakhstan record a gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics 135	Yes	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0x47ab78…
02-18 07:26:34	will kazakhstan record a gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics 135	Yes	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x19cd53…
02-18 07:26:10	will brazil record a gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics 627	Yes	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0x93da18…
02-18 07:25:24	will kazakhstan record a gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics 135	Yes	BUY	517	100¢	$516	0x8353f3…
02-16 16:23:59	ucl ben rma 2026 02 17 rma	No	BUY	3,169	47¢	$1,489	0x9ac375…
02-16 06:43:07	will brazil record a gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics 627	Yes	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x2b2e7b…
02-16 00:05:55	will nikola joki win the 2026 nba all star game mvp 243	No	BUY	936	100¢	$934	0xc471f3…
02-16 00:01:55	will nikola joki win the 2026 nba all star game mvp 243	No	BUY	1,169	100¢	$1,165	0x2022a1…