Troubled-Ball — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12.6K

Unrealized P&L

-$863

Hit rate

51.3%

Resolved

449

Trades

903

lifetime

Volume

$121.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$134

Open exposure

$869

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 08-03 16:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 56 days

Categories

Politics

44% 44% -$163

Crypto

38% 50% -$2,344

Other

15% 0% -$11,953

Sports

3% 100% +$1,822

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-03).

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	-1,154	-$156	66¢	$-762	-$606	07-19 19:19
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	-632	$192	15¢	$-92	-$283	06-15 00:36
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	-465	-$42	3¢	$-15	+$27	08-03 13:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	3	$9.2K	47,048	29,640	+17,408	No	-$4,944	04-14 11:37
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	5	$9.1K	11,702	0	+11,702	Yes	+$2,575	02-28 13:52
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	4	$7.9K	15,183	15,183	+0	Yes	+$3,599	04-07 23:34
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	10	$6.8K	35,000	24,631	+10,369	No	-$5,438	03-28 15:08
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	7	$6.8K	8,437	8,437	+0	Yes	-$382	04-07 23:20
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$5.8K	9,128	0	+9,128	Yes	+$3,286	02-21 03:08
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	3	$5.0K	2,927	2,927	+0	Yes	+$872	04-05 14:35
Iran leadership change by April 30?	7	$4.2K	14,703	11,027	+3,676	No	-$2,860	04-21 19:05
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	3	$4.2K	5,972	0	+5,972	Seahawks	+$1,822	02-08 23:49
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$4.1K	4,374	0	+4,374	Yes	-$4,068	02-27 04:35
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	2	$3.1K	3,828	1,914	+1,914	$80k	+$1,007	04-11 19:29
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	5	$3.0K	2,368	3,523	-1,154	open	—	07-19 19:19
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	3	$2.8K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$222	04-01 16:54
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	1	$2.0K	10,165	0	+10,165	Yes	-$2,000	04-05 15:13
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	4	$1.8K	2,604	1,220	+1,384	No	+$384	05-02 14:33
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	1	$1.5K	3,747	0	+3,747	Spain	-$1,471	07-19 19:21
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	1	$1.2K	2,329	0	+2,329	Yes	-$1,250	06-01 12:07
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-21 12:00 UTC	7	$992	1,268	591	+677	Down	-$100	04-21 12:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-03 02:15 UTC	5	$921	2,849	2,666	+184	Down	+$505	04-03 02:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-04 01:15 UTC	5	$900	1,412	0	+1,412	Down	-$900	04-04 01:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-03 23:15 UTC	4	$900	1,457	0	+1,457	Down	+$557	04-03 23:29
Iran leadership change by December 31?	2	$808	1,295	1,928	-632	open	—	06-15 00:36
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-03 05:00 UTC	6	$700	1,190	0	+1,190	Down	+$490	04-03 05:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-03 21:15 UTC	4	$700	1,184	0	+1,184	Down	+$484	04-03 21:29
iran leadership change by march 31	2	$635	5,291	0	+5,291	No	-$635	03-17 18:46
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	1	$500	1,001	0	+1,001	No	+$501	04-16 23:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-04 00:45 UTC	3	$500	1,207	0	+1,207	Down	-$500	04-04 00:50
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-03 23:30 UTC	4	$500	1,190	0	+1,190	Up	-$500	04-03 23:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-04 00:30 UTC	3	$500	785	0	+785	Up	+$285	04-04 00:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-21 13:30 UTC	4	$500	1,037	0	+1,037	Down	-$500	04-21 13:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-03 16:19:45	will bitcoin reach 64k on august 3	No	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xd1836e…
08-03 13:32:00	will bitcoin dip to 62k on august 3	Yes	BUY	92	49¢	$45	0x7a8d38…
08-03 13:30:24	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	465	9¢	$42	0xcb2fdd…
08-02 13:29:38	bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x50e890…
08-02 13:29:29	bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x5a5ef9…
07-21 22:02:36	bitcoin up or down july 21 2026 6pm et	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xa24124…
07-21 22:02:16	bitcoin up or down july 21 2026 6pm et	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xe67ab6…
07-21 19:20:10	bitcoin up or down july 21 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xc8d9d7…
07-20 13:08:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x5226a2…
07-20 12:25:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 12:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x62fbd4…
07-20 01:39:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x79e9cb…
07-20 01:39:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x5f9456…
07-20 01:06:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x2e41fc…
07-20 01:05:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x30adb9…
07-19 23:46:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 23:45 UTC	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x2b9b11…
07-19 22:15:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-19 22:15 UTC	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x3c79c2…
07-19 19:21:03	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	3,747	39¢	$1,471	0x232aef…
07-19 19:19:01	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	SELL	3,523	45¢	$1,585	0xeb0fe7…
07-08 21:12:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 21:10 UTC	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xd58947…
06-29 09:03:56	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	284	45¢	$128	0xc01a3f…
06-28 15:28:37	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	14	45¢	$6	0x02fb99…
06-28 15:27:13	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	378	37¢	$140	0x34e91d…
06-22 22:09:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-22 22:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x9438ad…
06-15 00:39:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x588c02…
06-15 00:38:55	bitcoin up or down june 14 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xb21a38…
06-15 00:37:03	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	BUY	655	45¢	$295	0x7b3d41…
06-15 00:36:30	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,928	16¢	$308	0xd04f96…
06-14 23:34:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x6bab6b…
06-11 01:44:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 01:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x33f218…
06-11 01:34:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x5471da…
06-10 13:40:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 13:40 UTC	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x0ed97d…
06-10 13:28:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-10 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x732f73…
06-10 13:25:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-10 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x798261…
06-09 20:30:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-09 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0x42b4b4…
06-09 20:15:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-09 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x00ab65…
06-09 20:13:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-09 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0xdb2064…
06-09 20:00:40	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-09 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xd3b732…
06-09 19:52:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-09 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xac9f27…
06-09 19:50:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-09 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x8a1eb7…
06-09 19:46:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-09 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x3e864f…
06-09 19:45:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 19:40 UTC	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xe7eac6…
06-09 19:44:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 19:40 UTC	Up	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0xc72e7c…
06-09 19:40:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 19:40 UTC	Down	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0xc6ee54…
06-09 19:36:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 19:35 UTC	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x61054c…
06-09 19:36:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 19:35 UTC	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xbf12b9…
06-07 18:18:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-07 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0x8d202e…
06-07 17:27:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-07 17:15 UTC	Down	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x850e1d…
06-06 15:09:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xc18152…
06-06 14:55:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x9c1ed5…
06-06 14:52:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x42982c…
06-06 14:50:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x7f76a9…
06-06 14:50:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xb0f981…
06-06 14:40:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x38b134…
06-06 14:22:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xf0415c…
06-06 14:18:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x755ece…
06-06 14:17:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x98f4f5…
06-06 14:16:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xbbb512…
06-06 14:06:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC	Down	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x6a44aa…
06-05 23:45:49	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	506	79¢	$400	0x1c7737…
06-05 14:35:13	bitcoin up or down june 5 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x40bbfd…
06-05 14:34:22	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-05 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0x5f7969…
06-04 21:32:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0xda0d73…
06-04 21:32:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x8e7ec0…
06-04 21:16:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x7f3cdb…
06-04 21:15:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0xb8a283…
06-04 21:15:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	44	56¢	$25	0x4ebdf5…
06-04 21:06:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 21:00 UTC	Up	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0x7d088d…
06-04 21:06:31	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 21:00 UTC	Up	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x88d3c2…
06-04 20:31:00	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	102	24¢	$25	0x575a24…
06-04 20:30:45	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	132	19¢	$25	0x7afa4f…
06-04 19:14:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 19:00 UTC	Down	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x79d2f0…
06-04 14:06:10	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x8b22c9…
06-04 14:04:13	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x109a43…
06-04 14:02:21	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0xc1d6d4…
06-04 14:00:36	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	46	55¢	$25	0x14d57a…
06-04 03:42:52	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-04 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x6d06d2…
06-04 03:42:51	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-04 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0xd950f9…
06-04 02:47:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xd81ebd…
06-04 02:47:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x0e7f42…
06-04 02:47:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	54	47¢	$25	0x9ba69b…
06-04 02:30:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 02:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x4c4ca8…
06-04 02:30:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 02:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x8d1846…
06-04 02:30:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 02:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xe73af3…
06-04 02:30:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 02:30 UTC	Up	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0xcc68eb…
06-04 02:30:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 02:30 UTC	Up	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0xb04fb2…
06-04 02:30:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 02:30 UTC	Up	BUY	59	43¢	$25	0x1363a8…
06-04 02:10:28	bitcoin up or down june 3 2026 10pm et	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x6ee8e1…
06-04 02:10:28	bitcoin up or down june 3 2026 10pm et	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x140a71…
06-04 02:01:15	bitcoin up or down june 3 2026 10pm et	Down	BUY	41	55¢	$22	0x95165d…
06-04 02:01:10	bitcoin up or down june 3 2026 10pm et	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x0a07b4…
06-04 02:00:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x5402bc…
06-04 02:00:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0xf946cf…
06-04 02:00:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x0bd492…
06-04 01:50:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 01:45 UTC	Down	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0x047366…
06-04 01:21:07	bitcoin up or down june 3 2026 9pm et	Down	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0x21a9f0…
06-04 01:20:22	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 01:15 UTC	Down	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0xab4cbd…
06-04 01:20:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 01:15 UTC	Down	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0x5ac6d4…
06-04 01:19:52	bitcoin up or down june 3 2026 9pm et	Down	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0xa6dd13…
06-04 01:19:40	bitcoin up or down june 3 2026 9pm et	Down	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0x221b83…
06-04 00:40:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x6a45aa…