Rude-Pen — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.35K

Unrealized P&L

-$125

Hit rate

66.8%

Resolved

234

Trades

988

lifetime

Volume

$95.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$97

Open exposure

$109

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-14 22:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 84 days

Categories

Politics

62% 57% -$2,069

Other

32% 54% -$2,911

Crypto

2% 80% +$351

Sports

2% 33% +$70

Tech

1% 89% +$212

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes		+300	$233	36¢	$109	-$125	08-14 22:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	12	$13.6K	7,000	7,000	+0	No	-$28	02-09 12:18
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$3.9K	2,253	2,253	+0	Yes	+$158	02-25 19:15
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	12	$3.8K	2,741	2,153	+588	No	+$144	01-29 20:33
will iran strike israel on march 6	24	$3.3K	2,060	2,060	+0	No	+$809	03-10 20:16
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	6	$2.4K	2,940	0	+2,940	No	+$537	01-13 16:10
will russia capture all of huliaipole by february 28	18	$2.1K	1,860	1,860	+0	No	+$100	02-11 08:22
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	3	$2.1K	1,198	1,198	+0	Yes	+$50	02-25 08:14
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	3	$1.8K	1,963	0	+1,963	No	+$170	01-31 13:49
will russia enter kupiansk vuzlovyi by february 28	5	$1.6K	1,142	587	+555	Yes	+$55	02-01 12:19
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	8	$1.3K	4,838	4,838	+0	Yes	-$1,316	03-01 11:27
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	6	$1.2K	730	730	+0	Yes	+$199	02-22 10:15
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	6	$1.2K	680	680	+0	No	+$156	02-22 10:45
will sean penn win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	6	$1.1K	705	705	+0	Yes	+$134	03-16 00:13
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	2	$1.1K	633	633	+0	Yes	+$132	02-20 04:13
will uae strike iran by march 31	14	$1.1K	900	900	+0	No	+$81	03-08 21:29
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$1.1K	720	720	+0	No	+$115	03-14 23:13
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	2	$1.1K	595	595	+0	No	+$83	02-24 19:18
will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	5	$1.1K	610	610	+0	No	+$79	03-11 04:23
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	2	$1.1K	1,570	0	+1,570	Yes	-$1,072	01-03 09:21
will silver si hit high 120 by end of february 431 947 594 173 652 316	7	$1.1K	560	560	+0	No	+$50	02-24 18:55
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	12	$1.1K	570	570	+0	No	+$52	03-03 12:44
will russia capture lyman by march 31 2026 494	5	$1.1K	617	617	-0	No	+$56	03-12 21:43
will russia capture all of rodynske by march 31	5	$1.1K	793	793	+0	Yes	+$56	03-16 07:09
bad bunny video becomes most viewed sb halftime on youtube in 1st month	8	$1.0K	540	540	+0	No	+$28	02-14 12:11
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	5	$1.0K	685	685	+0	No	+$21	01-09 08:18
will russia capture all of huliaipole by march 31	8	$1.0K	885	315	+570	No	+$120	03-27 16:37
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	38	$1.0K	524	524	+0	Yes	+$13	01-24 14:46
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	10	$1.0K	524	524	+0	No	+$14	01-24 13:32
will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	10	$1.0K	520	520	+0	No	+$11	02-19 10:50
will israel strike gaza on march 9 2026	11	$1.0K	560	560	+0	No	+$11	03-13 12:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-14 22:20:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	300	78¢	$233	0x27a2f9…
06-02 05:51:57	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	69¢	$11	0xae40ae…
06-02 01:14:40	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xed3959…
06-01 17:01:40	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x95973b…
06-01 17:01:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x589df2…
06-01 17:01:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x1487e4…
06-01 02:38:11	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x3c1098…
06-01 00:13:01	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?	No	SELL	121	3¢	$4	0x001224…
06-01 00:08:53	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x61066f…
05-31 13:19:45	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	31	92¢	$28	0x6db82b…
05-31 04:25:42	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?	No	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x821b69…
05-30 14:51:55	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x3d74bf…
05-30 14:48:48	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xc148f4…
05-30 02:45:47	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?	No	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x17ee0e…
05-30 01:06:08	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x23d161…
05-29 21:51:37	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x127fce…
05-29 21:20:03	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0xd48f5f…
05-29 19:58:02	Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x57a597…
05-29 15:28:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	87¢	$19	0xcf397c…
05-29 15:04:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x582f25…
05-29 14:59:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	37	62¢	$23	0x491d8a…
05-29 14:59:22	Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	No	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x78cc63…
05-29 14:57:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xf3b11e…
05-29 14:57:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x039725…
05-29 14:56:17	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xf8b881…
05-29 03:40:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x6c3e77…
05-29 03:40:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x451ecb…
05-29 03:01:58	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x40cb55…
05-28 19:57:47	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xebb293…
05-28 17:00:19	Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x79369f…
05-28 12:06:06	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xa242f1…
05-28 01:20:58	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x73db24…
05-28 01:11:56	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	11¢	$10	0xdce9ee…
05-27 23:48:45	Claude 4.8 released by July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9eba5f…
05-27 23:33:12	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xf33ad7…
05-27 23:28:18	Claude 4.8 released by June 15?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x75729d…
05-27 23:00:58	Claude 4.8 released by June 15?	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x1bc7cf…
05-27 22:01:07	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x795010…
05-27 17:45:53	Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	10¢	$10	0x7229b6…
05-27 02:54:19	Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x9d1d72…
05-26 17:16:27	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x9dd0a0…
05-26 16:48:03	Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?	Yes	BUY	97	10¢	$10	0x080b4e…
05-26 15:42:32	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0x8bf262…
05-26 15:19:52	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xe0125b…
05-26 14:45:36	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x978d6c…
05-26 14:41:15	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Royal Challengers Bengaluru	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x17a430…
05-26 01:26:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xbbd5c7…
05-26 00:39:25	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd549e7…
05-26 00:39:25	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6cf52a…
05-26 00:38:24	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4da711…
05-26 00:38:24	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3dde57…
05-26 00:35:50	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xee2f65…
05-26 00:35:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x719335…
05-26 00:35:18	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe8c560…
05-26 00:35:18	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x04a508…
05-26 00:01:28	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xd80cd3…
05-26 00:00:57	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xfc9fbf…
05-25 20:05:50	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x0c80c3…
05-25 20:05:48	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x359529…
05-25 18:05:45	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	26¢	$6	0x22417c…
05-25 06:49:32	Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x92cd2c…
05-25 06:14:40	Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9.5m and 11m?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x73cacb…
05-25 05:45:58	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	8¢	$4	0x85958f…
05-25 05:17:55	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	144	10¢	$14	0x7b602a…
05-25 01:57:01	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xf62eea…
05-25 01:51:42	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x3fe419…
05-25 01:51:13	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x915c1c…
05-25 01:45:21	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xcde0d3…
05-25 01:28:35	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	SELL	23	67¢	$15	0xcfb03b…
05-24 19:34:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	27	72¢	$19	0x5f0c25…
05-24 19:26:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x8c83a5…
05-24 19:24:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	13	91¢	$12	0x9f43c4…
05-24 17:05:11	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x28bb7d…
05-24 13:35:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	81	43¢	$35	0x805350…
05-24 04:46:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	30¢	$6	0x47f10a…
05-24 04:45:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x8230e2…
05-24 04:44:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x616f9c…
05-24 04:35:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	62¢	$10	0xf3a0fb…
05-24 03:29:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x657d2b…
05-24 03:26:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	31¢	$17	0xea1d9f…
05-24 03:05:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	44¢	$8	0x34b3c0…
05-24 03:04:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xb2038c…
05-24 01:38:44	Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x28ca7a…
05-24 01:38:15	Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xc3c9e2…
05-24 01:01:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x052944…
05-24 00:35:43	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 10.5m?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x778646…
05-23 23:48:43	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x7c64c0…
05-23 23:34:29	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	15¢	$10	0x61211b…
05-23 23:27:22	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	12¢	$10	0x8bdf9b…
05-23 23:14:25	Will "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x903f1b…
05-23 23:13:56	Will "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x31ddd7…
05-23 22:59:10	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	Yes	BUY	7	91¢	$7	0xb3c7ef…
05-23 21:08:13	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x5dccca…
05-23 20:57:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	74¢	$10	0xba0274…
05-23 20:42:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xc3fea3…
05-23 18:10:36	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x9d3b82…
05-23 14:49:45	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x44b8a7…
05-23 14:01:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x962eed…
05-23 14:01:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xb22e01…
05-23 12:44:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xf308a1…