Guilty-Fatigue — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

-$13

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

57.7%

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

13 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$184

$200 lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$16

1 position

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-05 21:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 40% $-13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down		+16	$15	100¢	$16	+$1	05-05 21:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	2	$31	16	16	+0	open	—	05-05 09:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	2	$30	15	15	+0	Down	+$1	05-05 02:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	1	$18	0	18	-18	Down	$-0	05-05 04:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	1	$17	0	17	-17	open	—	05-05 10:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	1	$16	0	16	-16	Down	$-0	05-04 23:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	1	$15	18	0	+18	open	—	05-05 13:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	1	$15	18	0	+18	Up	$-15	05-05 03:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	1	$15	19	0	+19	open	—	05-05 12:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	1	$15	16	0	+16	Up	+$1	05-05 04:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	1	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	05-05 06:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	1	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	05-05 21:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-05 21:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0x877f3a…
05-05 13:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	18	80¢	$15	0xf8a7ff…
05-05 12:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0x7a5cc2…
05-05 10:41:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x8355cb…
05-05 09:10:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x79d77b…
05-05 09:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	16	90¢	$15	0x860057…
05-05 06:50:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x0c44cb…
05-05 04:50:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x242794…
05-05 04:00:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x5a2b51…
05-05 03:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	18	82¢	$15	0xa252db…
05-05 02:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x9e8b69…
05-05 02:50:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	95¢	$15	0xc03f34…
05-04 23:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Down	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x1c4523…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	11	$16.2K	50	05-05 21:40
Agile-Spacing 0xce25…7fdc	8	$1.69K	55	05-05 21:39
Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4	7	$2.15K	32	05-05 21:39
Bronze-Axis 0x7a53…ee8f	6	$513	34	05-05 21:40
Fatal-Proximal-Stepsister 0xd0a5…7b04	4	$635	9	05-05 13:22