Only-Reduction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16.4K

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

65.5%

Resolved

989

Trades

4,493

lifetime

Volume

$371.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$83

Open exposure

$64

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-20 05:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 228 days

Categories

Other

43% 67% -$3,960

Crypto

31% 79% -$11,690

Politics

25% 68% -$610

Tech

1% 71% -$42

Sports

0% 43% -$14

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$45

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No		+75	$57	86¢	$64	+$7	10-20 05:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	119	$12.3K	10,860	10,860	+0	No	-$60	03-31 09:57
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	114	$10.0K	9,547	9,747	-200	Yes	-$148	03-30 08:22
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?	32	$4.3K	3,694	3,694	+0	No	-$1,147	05-14 10:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	28	$3.6K	2,310	2,301	+9	No	+$42	04-22 16:02
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-11 12:00 UTC	2	$3.5K	5,203	5,136	+67	Up	-$3,236	01-11 12:11
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April?	14	$3.4K	2,806	2,804	+2	No	+$7	04-30 22:51
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	24	$3.2K	2,965	2,965	+0	Yes	-$40	06-14 18:52
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	24	$3.1K	3,543	3,543	+0	No	+$26	04-25 08:16
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	19	$3.0K	1,608	1,608	+0	No	+$91	02-28 03:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-11 11:00 UTC	3	$3.0K	3,517	0	+3,517	Down	+$558	01-11 11:11
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	12	$2.9K	1,794	1,994	-200	No	-$29	05-20 06:16
wti up or down on april 23 2026	9	$2.8K	1,640	2,440	-800	Up	-$280	04-23 10:53
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	8	$2.8K	2,300	2,300	+0	No	-$123	06-01 04:03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	29	$2.8K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$20	04-30 11:03
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-11 10:45 UTC	2	$2.6K	2,968	0	+2,968	Up	+$347	01-11 10:52
bitcoin up or down january 13 1pm et	2	$2.4K	1,219	1,219	+0	Up	+$52	01-13 18:55
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	6	$2.3K	1,700	1,700	+0	Yes	-$6	04-23 17:38
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	17	$2.3K	1,204	1,204	+0	No	+$35	02-26 17:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	31	$2.3K	1,756	1,756	+0	Yes	-$7	02-28 21:02
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	12	$2.2K	1,264	1,264	+0	No	+$88	04-21 19:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	15	$2.2K	2,300	2,300	+0	Yes	-$12	06-12 07:17
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	10	$2.2K	1,484	1,484	+0	No	+$25	05-07 08:11
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?	12	$2.2K	1,390	1,390	+0	No	+$17	04-27 14:36
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-11 10:00 UTC	7	$2.1K	2,623	0	+2,623	Up	-$2,139	01-11 10:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$2.1K	1,351	1,351	+0	No	+$7	05-31 14:16
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-04 09:30 UTC	13	$2.1K	1,150	1,150	+0	Up	+$177	01-04 09:41
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	19	$2.1K	1,581	1,581	+0	No	-$20	04-22 14:10
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	4	$2.1K	1,240	1,240	+0	No	+$19	04-10 11:11
solana up or down january 13 12pm et	7	$2.1K	1,167	1,167	+0	Down	+$228	01-13 17:59
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	18	$2.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$10	04-25 08:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 05:31:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	75	77¢	$58	0x8c14e4…
10-16 15:27:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 16?	Yes	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x65fde4…
10-16 05:55:27	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xcdee2b…
10-16 05:54:24	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x52dd50…
10-16 05:51:01	Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	402	14¢	$56	0x39c814…
10-15 08:26:01	Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	402	15¢	$62	0x7de27a…
10-15 08:24:05	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 255 857	No	SELL	107	60¢	$64	0x6eac6f…
10-13 06:42:04	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	51	57¢	$29	0xcb7293…
10-13 06:37:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	36	72¢	$26	0x886d52…
10-10 06:57:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0x7550f5…
10-10 06:56:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0xa90c4f…
10-10 06:56:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	60	83¢	$49	0x39b7b5…
10-08 06:37:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0xddb9b3…
10-08 06:34:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 8?	No	SELL	180	31¢	$56	0xa6bd4a…
10-08 05:43:20	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 8?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xc5b2a9…
10-08 05:34:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 8?	No	BUY	170	95¢	$162	0xc5d7b2…
10-08 05:22:55	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on October 8?	No	SELL	57	52¢	$30	0x77d80c…
10-08 05:10:34	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on October 8?	No	SELL	158	57¢	$90	0x06de7f…
10-08 05:03:53	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on October 8?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x34a01e…
10-08 05:03:19	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on October 8?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x837ea4…
10-08 05:02:56	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on October 8?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xeda6c8…
10-08 04:36:52	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on October 8?	No	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xac6ddb…
10-08 04:36:52	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on October 8?	No	BUY	18	59¢	$11	0x0fa923…
10-08 04:35:52	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on October 8?	No	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xfb1f75…
10-08 04:28:52	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on October 8?	No	BUY	166	59¢	$98	0x531b4f…
10-07 08:51:30	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on October 7?	Yes	SELL	14	18¢	$2	0x58456b…
10-07 08:26:47	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on October 7?	Yes	BUY	14	18¢	$2	0xa71d8d…
10-07 07:05:36	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 7?	Yes	SELL	33	30¢	$10	0x5b53b2…
10-07 06:52:15	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xb94b62…
10-07 06:52:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	28	30¢	$8	0x6e203d…
10-07 06:33:36	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 7?	Yes	SELL	19	25¢	$5	0xef0871…
10-07 06:30:57	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0x9c3680…
10-07 06:30:56	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xfb6cc7…
10-07 06:06:03	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 7?	Yes	SELL	15	30¢	$5	0x36a73d…
10-07 06:02:59	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	15	30¢	$4	0x5a3983…
10-06 14:14:30	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 7?	Yes	SELL	25	37¢	$9	0x53fa49…
10-06 14:13:09	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xfc42be…
10-06 14:13:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	17	36¢	$6	0x178738…
10-06 07:18:34	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on October 6?	Yes	SELL	9	32¢	$3	0x8a6058…
10-06 07:16:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0xb3eb96…
10-06 07:15:06	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xee5ef1…
10-06 07:12:04	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0xb95590…
10-05 07:45:17	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	30	61¢	$18	0x703968…
10-01 08:26:44	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 1?	Yes	SELL	64	99¢	$64	0x6ecda1…
10-01 08:26:23	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on October 1?	Yes	SELL	40	39¢	$15	0xc4dc89…
10-01 08:19:48	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on October 1?	Yes	SELL	15	50¢	$8	0x62ce18…
10-01 08:02:27	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on October 1?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x1cfb22…
10-01 08:00:41	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on October 1?	Yes	SELL	15	44¢	$6	0x44d6e7…
10-01 08:00:03	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on October 1?	Yes	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x175883…
10-01 07:37:27	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on October 1?	Yes	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0x28be6f…
10-01 07:10:15	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x09e845…
10-01 07:10:14	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	41	50¢	$20	0xfee198…
10-01 07:10:14	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	7	50¢	$3	0xf34f50…
10-01 05:57:47	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0x46a158…
10-01 05:53:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	52	79¢	$41	0xaa4f88…
10-01 05:53:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x8cc10f…
09-30 05:42:30	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x6221c6…
09-30 05:39:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x22ab44…
09-28 07:33:53	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 28?	Yes	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x834f2b…
09-28 07:33:06	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 28?	Yes	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x035777…
09-28 05:57:33	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 28?	Yes	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0x9bd4b7…
09-28 05:43:15	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 28?	No	SELL	86	4¢	$4	0x742289…
09-28 05:39:44	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 28?	No	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0xb0f1e5…
09-28 05:38:56	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 28?	Yes	BUY	21	81¢	$17	0x7cf3e6…
09-28 05:37:44	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 28?	No	BUY	56	13¢	$7	0x569542…
09-25 06:26:17	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on September 25?	Yes	SELL	22	41¢	$9	0x80f015…
09-25 06:19:47	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on September 25?	No	SELL	1	59¢	$0	0x3cc795…
09-25 06:17:44	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on September 25?	No	BUY	1	57¢	$0	0x7dbb07…
09-25 06:17:21	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on September 25?	Yes	BUY	22	40¢	$9	0x9e35c9…
09-25 05:57:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x166623…
09-24 07:20:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x0fc951…
09-24 07:19:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 24?	Yes	SELL	47	100¢	$47	0xb71a2a…
09-24 05:28:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	47	92¢	$43	0x217da7…
09-24 05:27:50	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 24?	No	BUY	11	86¢	$9	0xd3e4dd…
09-09 06:29:00	US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	369	65¢	$240	0xb902a4…
09-09 05:27:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 9?	No	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0x1550a4…
09-09 05:27:25	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 9?	No	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0xd5ee19…
09-09 05:26:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 9?	No	BUY	39	80¢	$31	0x930257…
09-09 05:22:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 9?	No	BUY	122	80¢	$98	0x61ac6c…
09-09 05:22:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 9?	No	BUY	23	80¢	$18	0x4b9cc9…
09-09 05:02:21	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	73	35¢	$26	0xea84a6…
09-09 05:02:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	77	35¢	$27	0x106808…
09-09 05:02:12	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x49a00f…
09-09 05:01:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0xdd99a6…
09-09 04:59:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0xaf0ddb…
09-09 04:59:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x6c16fe…
09-09 04:59:34	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xb57b8d…
09-09 04:59:34	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xb54771…
09-09 04:59:34	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x2aeb19…
09-09 04:58:45	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0xef1974…
09-07 10:23:10	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 7?	Yes	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0xde1d3f…
09-07 06:36:40	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xb5ca9e…
09-06 07:55:15	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 6?	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0xe4a5c0…
09-06 06:44:16	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 6?	No	SELL	9	4¢	$0	0xb9d829…
09-06 06:25:27	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	137	90¢	$124	0xa670b4…
09-06 06:25:19	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	63	90¢	$56	0x2d9117…
09-06 06:23:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 6?	No	SELL	88	11¢	$10	0x58c994…
09-06 06:23:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 6?	No	SELL	12	11¢	$1	0x25631a…
09-06 06:22:36	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 6?	No	SELL	23	11¢	$3	0x67cd5d…
09-06 06:18:49	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 6?	No	SELL	13	11¢	$1	0x961b88…