Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.74K

Unrealized P&L

-$22

Hit rate

68.3%

Resolved

1,219

Trades

3,429

lifetime

Volume

$56.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-21

last 10-18 10:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 127 days

Categories

Other

60% 69% -$1,445

Crypto

16% 89% +$30

Politics

14% 61% -$247

Tech

7% 61% -$51

Sports

2% 47% -$43

Pop-Culture

1% 75% +$15

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 238 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	+3	$2	75¢	$2	+$1	09-15 17:47
will the highest score achieved by a spacexai grok model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 45 or higher 20260723191456650	Yes	+0	$22	67¢	$0	-$21	09-15 10:29
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$1	29¢	$0	-$1	10-02 13:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	22	$666	510	510	+0	No	-$3	09-08 22:44
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	15	$633	539	539	-0	No	-$30	09-12 22:02
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	49	$424	345	345	+0	Yes	-$6	09-10 23:40
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	6	$409	211	211	+0	No	+$1	08-16 15:23
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in September?	7	$378	255	255	+0	Yes	+$5	09-11 22:34
will the highest score achieved by a spacexai grok model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 45 or higher 20260723191456650	11	$375	248	248	+0	open	—	09-15 10:29
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	8	$371	313	313	+0	open	—	09-13 18:18
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	5	$301	155	155	+0	No	+$1	08-19 17:19
Will "Widow's Bay" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?	9	$296	266	266	+0	No	-$14	09-12 16:09
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	6	$292	210	210	+0	Yes	-$8	09-18 11:17
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	5	$290	188	111	+77	No	+$2	08-19 13:53
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	5	$287	230	230	+0	Yes	+$28	09-10 17:44
will marco rubio have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	43	$268	141	141	+0	No	-$2	06-19 21:57
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	10	$263	201	201	+0	No	$0	09-10 22:19
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?	4	$261	261	261	+0	No	+$1	09-14 20:45
Will Caliste Win the LEC 2026 Summer Split MVP?	6	$259	194	194	+0	No	-$16	09-13 00:15
mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	4	$255	131	131	+0	No	+$1	08-18 13:34
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	8	$248	195	195	+0	open	—	09-13 16:51
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in August 2026?	48	$239	652	66	+586	No	-$88	08-26 08:17
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	22	$234	172	172	+0	Yes	+$3	09-08 16:53
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	6	$229	172	172	+0	Yes	-$2	09-11 17:49
Will Angelica Katsanidou be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar County?	5	$226	137	137	+0	Yes	+$3	09-14 13:42
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	6	$221	172	172	+0	open	—	09-19 08:56
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?	7	$214	140	140	+0	open	—	09-08 17:40
Will Mattias Ottosson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Östergötland?	13	$211	247	247	+0	open	—	09-21 07:31
Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?	14	$204	139	139	+0	Yes	+$1	09-12 05:52
Will Seoul have less than 75mm of precipitation in September?	6	$203	160	160	+0	Yes	-$3	09-12 02:51
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	22	$199	104	104	+0	No	-$1	06-27 21:35
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	4	$195	143	143	+0	open	—	09-13 23:15
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	8	$194	172	172	+0	No	-$33	09-16 19:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-18 10:11:05	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	50¢	$10	0x6ad751…
10-08 20:49:38	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0x60a0bb…
10-08 07:34:07	Will Mercantile Bank (MBWM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x9e33d2…
10-08 07:28:54	Will Mercantile Bank (MBWM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0xcf0ee9…
10-07 22:34:08	Will "The Invite" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	24	48¢	$12	0x7221db…
10-07 22:24:09	Will "The Invite" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0xcbcf14…
10-07 22:12:30	Will "The Invite" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0x87d6eb…
10-07 17:14:08	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	Yes	SELL	23	64¢	$15	0x211156…
10-07 17:08:04	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	Yes	BUY	23	67¢	$15	0x2c5aa0…
10-07 14:54:08	Will Tyreek Hill sign with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	62¢	$14	0x708353…
10-07 14:47:17	Will Tyreek Hill sign with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0x377db2…
10-07 13:54:08	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	SELL	44	66¢	$29	0x7db98a…
10-07 13:32:08	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0x3334d8…
10-07 10:24:08	Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	46¢	$8	0x2da9d3…
10-07 10:15:08	Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0x835981…
10-06 13:06:43	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	64¢	$15	0xbc1aed…
10-06 12:21:09	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	68¢	$16	0xdd7591…
10-05 16:37:55	Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 17?	Yes	SELL	23	85¢	$20	0x48d32e…
10-05 14:44:37	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 5?	Yes	SELL	23	38¢	$9	0x0c1d57…
10-05 13:45:25	Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $30 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	65¢	$28	0x05bb5d…
10-05 10:39:22	will the uss george hw bush be in centcom on october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x90ce85…
10-05 10:05:49	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 5?	Yes	SELL	19	69¢	$13	0x4c60d0…
10-05 10:02:14	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 5?	Yes	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0x2fccae…
10-05 07:16:37	will eu emergency diesel stocks be at least 33m tonnes at end of october 2026	Yes	SELL	23	69¢	$16	0xa3d773…
10-05 05:54:20	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 5?	Yes	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0x06fbd1…
10-05 03:56:35	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0x3a44da…
10-05 01:34:13	will the uss george hw bush be in centcom on october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x2e654f…
10-05 01:33:56	will the uss george hw bush be in centcom on october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x2cff88…
10-05 01:32:40	Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x611838…
10-04 21:35:16	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 5?	Yes	BUY	23	68¢	$16	0x747378…
10-04 19:47:31	will the uss george washington depart centcom by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	23	61¢	$14	0xf5016c…
10-04 16:17:46	will the uss george washington depart centcom by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0x03dc5e…
10-04 13:56:28	Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 17?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x9ffab3…
10-04 13:56:28	Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 17?	Yes	BUY	18	66¢	$12	0x5cc7ad…
10-04 13:44:23	Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $30 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	69¢	$30	0x762ad2…
10-04 12:00:26	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	67¢	$27	0x69e1ac…
10-04 11:34:11	Will the peak water level at La Jolla be 7.70 ft MLLW or more?	Yes	SELL	22	62¢	$13	0x51f214…
10-04 07:57:46	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	68¢	$16	0x90da3d…
10-04 07:26:25	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0xab5a26…
10-04 06:04:23	will eu emergency diesel stocks be at least 33m tonnes at end of october 2026	Yes	SELL	23	56¢	$13	0xfc3cf5…
10-04 04:17:52	Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on October 4?	Yes	SELL	23	65¢	$15	0xa2b537…
10-04 02:34:04	Will the peak water level at La Jolla be 7.70 ft MLLW or more?	Yes	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0xf39c79…
10-04 00:11:02	where will it rain on october 4 2026 philadelphia pa	Yes	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x87cdbe…
10-04 00:11:02	where will it rain on october 4 2026 philadelphia pa	Yes	BUY	17	66¢	$11	0x845a38…
10-03 23:19:38	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0xf5ec39…
10-03 17:59:36	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	SELL	22	69¢	$15	0x7c8137…
10-03 16:19:38	Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?	Yes	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0xbf8e7b…
10-03 15:52:29	Will Joe Mack win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award?	Yes	SELL	23	52¢	$12	0xc458e1…
10-03 09:10:39	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Yes	SELL	19	61¢	$11	0x6bacfb…
10-03 09:10:39	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Yes	SELL	4	61¢	$3	0x36f315…
10-03 00:31:18	Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?	Yes	SELL	23	60¢	$14	0xc0ec48…
10-02 23:43:32	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	Yes	SELL	23	49¢	$11	0xbaee6d…
10-02 21:31:26	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	Yes	SELL	23	32¢	$7	0xf901f5…
10-02 21:15:05	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?	Yes	SELL	23	71¢	$16	0xde806b…
10-02 20:23:03	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% in October?	Yes	SELL	23	51¢	$12	0x6c6bfb…
10-02 19:56:15	Will the Arizona Cardinals win more than 4.5 games in the 2026 NFL Regular Season?	O 4.5	SELL	23	62¢	$14	0x405625…
10-02 19:27:05	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	Yes	SELL	16	64¢	$10	0xdf59be…
10-02 19:27:05	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x68c4d0…
10-02 19:26:35	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x8a487d…
10-02 19:19:15	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	Yes	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x1d1927…
10-02 19:15:57	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	Yes	BUY	23	69¢	$16	0x6aa16c…
10-02 18:57:21	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	0	69¢	$0	0x15d23c…
10-02 17:44:15	Will it rain in New York, NY on October 2?	Yes	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x2ff4a2…
10-02 17:43:21	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	Yes	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0xf9a34a…
10-02 17:32:36	Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x4311ca…
10-02 17:32:33	Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	17	67¢	$11	0x1c95fd…
10-02 16:20:50	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0xba963f…
10-02 16:18:50	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	Yes	SELL	23	68¢	$16	0xdb6cf4…
10-02 15:29:48	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	Yes	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0x72712b…
10-02 14:16:48	Will Joe Mack win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award?	Yes	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0x8e6b90…
10-02 13:31:30	Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	59¢	$0	0xd7b64d…
10-02 13:31:30	Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xcd8c34…
10-02 13:31:29	Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xef9c55…
10-02 13:31:29	Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xae8464…
10-02 13:31:29	Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	59¢	$6	0x2bcd9a…
10-02 13:31:27	Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xf220cb…
10-02 13:31:27	Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xebe378…
10-02 13:31:26	Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xa9f82b…
10-02 13:31:26	Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x0e0fb5…
10-02 13:10:36	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	69¢	$30	0x963c17…
10-02 13:06:27	Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?	Yes	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0x30fac6…
10-02 12:50:03	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?	Yes	BUY	23	67¢	$15	0xf340bc…
10-02 12:25:48	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xd82d23…
10-02 12:22:53	Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x9bdace…
10-02 10:16:35	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Yes	BUY	23	68¢	$16	0x7517fe…
10-02 09:43:12	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% in October?	Yes	BUY	23	69¢	$16	0xa50ba6…
10-02 09:20:21	Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0xe3a826…
10-02 02:29:17	Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on October 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x82854f…
10-02 01:58:08	Will Las Vegas Aces advance to the Semifinals in the 2026 WNBA Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	23	64¢	$15	0x249698…
10-01 03:37:17	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	38¢	$13	0xb58b44…
10-01 01:48:33	Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?	Yes	SELL	22	47¢	$11	0xe7d664…
10-01 01:48:33	Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?	Yes	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0x5d459e…
10-01 01:40:21	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	38¢	$4	0xf33c93…
09-30 22:16:29	Will the Arizona Cardinals win more than 4.5 games in the 2026 NFL Regular Season?	O 4.5	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0xfc2d3d…
09-30 21:45:06	Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?	Yes	BUY	23	68¢	$16	0x54f2bf…
09-30 20:08:35	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0x71dd74…
09-30 19:57:03	Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x7bbb20…
09-30 19:38:42	Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	67¢	$6	0x9f6bc3…
09-30 18:15:56	over 40m committed to the jumper public sale	Yes	SELL	23	46¢	$11	0xfbb5d8…
09-30 17:55:03	will las vegas aces advance to the semifinals in the 2026 wnba playoffs	Yes	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0x17843e…