Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$223

Unrealized P&L

-$40

Hit rate

50.8%

Resolved

216

Trades

504

lifetime

Volume

$6.58K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$166

18 positions

First seen

2026-02-03

last 10-26 14:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 80 days

Categories

Other

80% 46% +$118

Politics

11% 38% +$25

Tech

7% 57% +$90

Sports

2% 50% -$10

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+43	$13	68¢	$29	+$16	09-12 09:55
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+67	$20	38¢	$26	+$6	09-12 09:45
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	No	+35	$13	70¢	$24	+$11	09-12 13:49
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+17	-$4	91¢	$16	+$19	09-30 22:50
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+34	$15	44¢	$15	+$0	10-13 13:17
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+40	$14	32¢	$13	-$1	09-06 17:10
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	+43	$14	26¢	$11	-$3	09-14 10:40
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+44	$15	26¢	$11	-$4	09-14 10:58
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+23	$7	30¢	$7	$0	10-24 07:36
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	+201	-$9	2¢	$4	+$13	10-15 14:47
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	+79	$15	4¢	$3	-$12	10-07 17:03
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Yes	+65	$14	4¢	$2	-$11	09-03 10:36
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+58	$15	3¢	$2	-$13	10-07 17:33
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	+26	$13	3¢	$1	-$13	09-11 18:50
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+26	$13	2¢	$1	-$12	09-11 07:16
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No	+17	$9	4¢	$1	-$8	10-01 09:07
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+50	$9	1¢	$0	-$8	09-08 11:07
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Yes	+52	$20	0¢	$0	-$20	08-29 08:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	4	$232	1,703	1,951	-248	Yes	-$111	02-25 05:35
will the us collect between 100b and 200b in revenue in 2025	7	$232	3,022	3,022	+0	No	-$89	02-25 05:35
will the us collect between 200b and 500b in revenue in 2025	5	$140	1,029	1,029	+0	No	-$84	02-25 05:35
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	3	$117	133	133	+0	Yes	+$77	09-14 09:23
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?	3	$71	68	68	+0	Yes	+$41	09-22 09:30
Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	2	$68	50	50	+0	No	+$28	06-19 10:21
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	3	$67	140	70	+70	No	+$43	09-07 14:31
Will PPI YoY be 5.2% in July?	3	$63	140	105	+35	No	+$9	07-29 08:31
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	2	$63	100	51	+49	No	+$15	09-07 14:32
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	3	$60	50	50	+0	No	+$32	09-14 09:24
Will there be between 35 and 59 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?	2	$58	45	45	+0	open	—	10-26 05:31
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May?	2	$53	37	37	+0	No	+$13	06-09 06:32
Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?	2	$52	85	42	+42	No	+$54	09-14 11:57
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	2	$50	32	32	+0	No	+$10	06-19 10:21
will the jne certify results of the second round of the 2026 peruvian presidential elections by july 15 20260608233701772	2	$49	30	30	+0	Yes	+$9	07-02 10:31
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	2	$48	90	45	+45	No	+$12	09-14 17:55
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	8	$48	92	46	+46	Yes	+$12	09-30 00:25
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4?	2	$45	28	28	+0	No	+$5	06-09 06:32
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $10.25B by September 30?	2	$44	30	30	+0	Yes	+$16	09-18 09:42
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	2	$42	95	49	+47	No	+$2	07-29 04:31
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	2	$40	78	40	+37	Yes	+$0	07-29 04:31
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,169,000 and $1,185,000 on September 30?	3	$40	99	50	+50	No	+$10	09-20 19:09
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by October 31?	2	$38	53	26	+26	Yes	+$34	10-23 13:25
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $524,000 and $530,000 on September 30?	7	$37	78	39	+39	Yes	+$48	09-23 13:05
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?	4	$37	150	38	+112	open	—	10-16 02:16
Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?	2	$36	71	35	+35	No	+$6	09-20 11:08
Will "Forgotten Island" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	6	$36	52	21	+31	Yes	+$31	09-23 19:24
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before September 1, 2026?	2	$33	52	52	+0	Yes	-$13	08-26 10:46
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in September?	2	$32	85	42	+42	Yes	+$49	09-15 14:14
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	3	$32	74	0	+74	No	-$32	08-30 07:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 14:41:11	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	No	SELL	13	85¢	$11	0x142a5c…
10-26 10:11:18	Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $100M and $125M by November 30?	No	BUY	35	39¢	$14	0x770e19…
10-26 05:31:09	Will there be between 35 and 59 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	94¢	$43	0x35b0dc…
10-25 09:13:15	Will Salesforce Q3 current RPO growth (CC) be above 17%?	Yes	BUY	64	16¢	$10	0xc6942b…
10-25 09:10:35	Will Ben Rice lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in home runs?	Yes	BUY	34	60¢	$20	0x0eb6c1…
10-25 08:35:02	Will Kroger Q3 identical sales without fuel growth be between 0% and 0.5%?	Yes	BUY	71	17¢	$12	0x825036…
10-24 08:11:36	Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?	Yes	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0xad62b3…
10-24 07:36:20	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	23	31¢	$7	0xf201b1…
10-23 13:25:20	Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by October 31?	Yes	SELL	26	85¢	$23	0x0d5d94…
10-23 07:24:02	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 4% to 5.5%?	No	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xa545c5…
10-23 07:19:26	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 1% and 3%?	Yes	BUY	75	20¢	$15	0xc707fd…
10-22 09:41:35	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 global unit case volume growth <3.5%?	Yes	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xb45afe…
10-22 09:32:42	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x1ad6f5…
10-22 09:22:06	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0xb1c717…
10-22 09:21:53	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 global unit case volume growth <3.5%?	Yes	BUY	34	35¢	$12	0xdf08ee…
10-22 09:21:30	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xb6948b…
10-22 09:21:20	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xe3e6c3…
10-22 09:21:18	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xeab1c0…
10-22 09:09:23	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x710976…
10-22 08:48:41	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xac0b3e…
10-22 08:40:09	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 5% to 7%?	Yes	BUY	35	43¢	$15	0x1082dc…
10-22 07:12:54	Will the Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	SELL	33	45¢	$15	0x454fa4…
10-22 04:08:27	Massachusetts passes jungle primary ballot measure?	Yes	BUY	15	41¢	$6	0xc41f3f…
10-21 10:07:00	Massachusetts passes jungle primary ballot measure?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x05f082…
10-21 07:35:05	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x661a83…
10-21 07:07:57	Will OpenRouter process between 625T and 675T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	Yes	BUY	65	23¢	$15	0x5d95fd…
10-21 06:59:15	Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?	No	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0x0eef2f…
10-20 10:59:11	Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 3% and 4%?	No	BUY	28	56¢	$16	0x6e4b0c…
10-19 16:11:03	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	34¢	$8	0xec3f7c…
10-19 11:30:12	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x05fd25…
10-19 08:11:48	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada be between 1,125,000 and 1,200,000?	Yes	BUY	80	18¢	$15	0xef28b6…
10-18 06:14:59	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,400,000 and 1,450,000?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xda940c…
10-17 13:04:18	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be less than 1,200,000?	Yes	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0xc20612…
10-17 09:25:15	over 30m committed to the 1w public sale	No	BUY	45	33¢	$15	0x1be563…
10-17 05:50:47	Will Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?	No	BUY	24	63¢	$15	0xd6904c…
10-16 14:22:55	will broadcom avgo q4 ai revenue be above 20261008120151000 22b	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x7e179b…
10-16 13:51:15	will broadcom avgo q4 ai revenue be above 20261008120151000 22b	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x5b0ab8…
10-16 13:02:55	will argentinas monthly inflation in october 2026 be between 1pt6 and 1pt8	Yes	BUY	51	29¢	$15	0x8abf97…
10-16 02:16:25	Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0xdfd867…
10-15 15:28:53	Will there be between 35 and 59 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	33¢	$15	0x305158…
10-15 15:05:58	Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x54f71b…
10-15 14:47:05	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	SELL	67	24¢	$16	0x6bd048…
10-15 13:53:05	Will Google (GOOGL) Q3 capital expenditures be above $57B?	Yes	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0x8e3db8…
10-15 13:35:52	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 5% to 6.5%?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x6fb88a…
10-15 13:35:52	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 5% to 6.5%?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x175542…
10-15 13:35:47	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 5% to 6.5%?	Yes	BUY	18	34¢	$6	0xd3a049…
10-15 13:35:47	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 5% to 6.5%?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x35091e…
10-15 13:33:29	Will Kyle Larson win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship?	Yes	BUY	31	48¢	$15	0x6916dc…
10-14 19:50:58	Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 12.5% to 13.5%?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x99ea13…
10-14 19:50:58	Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 12.5% to 13.5%?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x2987c5…
10-14 14:42:03	Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 12.5% to 13.5%?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x338598…
10-14 09:00:32	Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between -0.3% and -0.1%?	Yes	BUY	58	26¢	$15	0xef2cc6…
10-14 08:50:37	will google googl q3 cloud revenue be above 20261008120049000 30b	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x3fd008…
10-14 08:42:53	will google googl q3 cloud revenue be above 20261008120049000 30b	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x701f59…
10-14 08:19:20	Will voter turnout be between 64% and 66% in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	77	20¢	$15	0xa7b2bc…
10-14 08:16:11	will google googl q3 cloud revenue be above 20261008120049000 30b	Yes	BUY	9	28¢	$3	0x6f88e1…
10-14 08:12:08	Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x31caae…
10-14 07:54:49	Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 13.5% to 14.5%?	Yes	BUY	47	24¢	$11	0x59b2ed…
10-13 22:54:40	will american express axp q3 total revenue net of interest expense be above 20261008120034000 20pt25b	Yes	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0x75d8a7…
10-13 13:17:22	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	34	44¢	$15	0xada363…
10-12 14:01:51	Will the Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x85c07d…
10-12 14:01:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0x74e057…
10-12 13:46:45	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xf4c89c…
10-11 10:19:27	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?	Yes	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0x32b6a3…
10-09 10:57:31	Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?	Yes	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0xe7eb7e…
10-07 19:42:36	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?	Yes	SELL	110	12¢	$13	0x76942a…
10-07 19:42:07	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be below -3.00 ft by November 30?	Yes	SELL	150	1¢	$2	0xaf4740…
10-07 19:41:48	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	188	4¢	$8	0xf7f5ab…
10-07 19:41:33	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in September?	Yes	SELL	341	2¢	$8	0xc77871…
10-07 17:47:04	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?	Yes	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0x2ac41b…
10-07 17:33:11	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	26¢	$15	0x1ceb3f…
10-07 17:03:56	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	BUY	79	19¢	$15	0x5286e9…
10-07 16:25:43	Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?	Yes	BUY	58	26¢	$15	0x09bca5…
10-07 14:09:01	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	110	12¢	$13	0x80ecfe…
10-06 15:44:15	Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $122.5B by October 31?	Yes	BUY	24	20¢	$5	0xac42c6…
10-06 15:29:33	Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $122.5B by October 31?	Yes	BUY	51	19¢	$10	0xa8c6cf…
10-06 14:14:29	Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by October 31?	Yes	BUY	53	28¢	$15	0x2058c7…
10-06 13:10:30	Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $31B by October 31?	Yes	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0xdbbe88…
10-05 05:47:07	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	31	42¢	$13	0x204b21…
10-04 08:41:20	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x39d157…
10-04 07:39:44	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	56	25¢	$14	0xbce3f8…
10-04 07:33:01	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	19	17¢	$3	0x5b222b…
10-04 07:05:47	Will an NL West team win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xae8999…
10-04 01:37:35	Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%?	Yes	SELL	40	33¢	$13	0xf72f1b…
10-03 18:44:06	Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0x180754…
10-01 09:07:57	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	267	3¢	$7	0x89014c…
10-01 09:07:32	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No	BUY	17	54¢	$9	0xd6afde…
10-01 05:28:14	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	35¢	$18	0x3c8db5…
09-30 22:50:44	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	17	75¢	$13	0x0e913b…
09-30 10:04:00	will spacex starship flight test 15 launch by november 30	No	BUY	80	22¢	$18	0x881683…
09-30 07:12:50	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	188	8¢	$15	0xa0fb79…
09-30 00:25:41	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	46	65¢	$30	0x46a4c1…
09-29 07:37:38	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	12¢	$15	0x38b40a…
09-28 15:48:41	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	39¢	$17	0x808068…
09-26 12:57:36	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be below -3.00 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0x5db861…
09-26 12:22:26	SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x87d943…
09-26 11:54:03	SSI public model released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	39	38¢	$15	0xfee6b1…
09-23 19:24:13	Will "Forgotten Island" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0xfdf069…
09-23 18:20:59	Will "Forgotten Island" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0xaa59ba…
09-23 18:19:56	Will "Forgotten Island" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	11	85¢	$9	0xf44169…