Sturdy-Persimmon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$105

Unrealized P&L

+$136

Hit rate

50.4%

Resolved

728

Trades

826

lifetime

Volume

$7.79K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$1.10K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 10-27 22:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 173 days

Categories

Other

70% 9% +$69

Politics

27% 10% -$72

Crypto

3% 7% -$97

Sports

0% 100% +$5

Tech

0% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	No	+506	$400	92¢	$468	+$68	10-23 12:19
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+403	$310	82¢	$328	+$18	10-26 18:39
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	+314	$250	94¢	$297	+$47	10-22 16:28
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-37	-$9	18¢	$-7	+$3	05-12 00:03
another fed rate hike in 2026	Yes	+5	$4	74¢	$4	$0	09-17 21:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	2	$1.0K	556	556	+0	open	—	10-24 17:53
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 260 279	2	$422	272	272	+0	Yes	+$122	03-27 17:50
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	2	$400	506	0	+506	open	—	10-23 12:19
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	4	$310	403	0	+403	open	—	10-26 18:39
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	2	$250	314	0	+314	open	—	10-22 16:28
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 280 299	2	$174	164	156	+7	Yes	+$145	04-14 17:29
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 360 379	2	$152	148	148	+0	Yes	+$144	02-10 18:18
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	2	$126	185	185	+0	Yes	+$102	05-12 00:02
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?	2	$124	132	132	+0	Yes	+$114	04-30 08:02
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 360 379	2	$123	114	114	+0	Yes	+$105	02-13 17:36
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 380 399	2	$122	107	107	+0	Yes	+$92	01-30 16:32
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 200 219	2	$115	198	198	+0	Yes	+$75	03-05 18:23
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 460 479	4	$114	152	152	+0	Yes	+$98	01-23 15:54
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 500 519	1	$107	807	0	+807	No	-$107	01-15 12:29
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 340 359	2	$81	76	76	+0	Yes	+$71	02-03 19:18
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 540 559	2	$81	71	71	+0	Yes	+$61	01-16 16:55
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 220 239	2	$72	194	194	+0	No	+$58	03-01 20:41
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 360 379	3	$60	190	190	+0	No	+$0	01-30 02:17
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 220 239	2	$55	217	217	+0	No	+$35	03-05 18:23
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	2	$54	93	93	+0	Yes	+$44	08-27 15:45
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	2	$53	51	51	+0	Yes	+$49	08-21 16:01
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 320 339	3	$50	327	148	+179	No	+$44	04-14 14:49
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 220 239	1	$50	333	0	+333	No	-$50	04-09 18:42
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 340 359	2	$49	200	190	+10	No	+$45	04-13 07:06
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 300 319	2	$47	93	93	+0	No	+$23	02-09 19:39
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 400 419	2	$45	129	129	+0	No	+$11	02-12 19:15
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 360 379	2	$44	333	317	+17	No	+$42	04-13 07:06
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 280 299	2	$42	167	167	+0	Yes	+$12	03-16 21:57
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 420 439	3	$41	104	104	+0	No	+$27	01-22 14:00
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 320 339	2	$39	100	100	+0	No	+$23	02-09 19:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 22:36:23	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on October 28?	No	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x3b1469…
10-27 22:33:11	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0x38d60d…
10-26 18:39:06	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0x2338cb…
10-24 17:53:32	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	556	98¢	$542	0xe10c0b…
10-24 17:53:03	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0xc6c52f…
10-23 12:19:56	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	254	79¢	$200	0x5099ce…
10-23 12:17:57	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	253	79¢	$200	0xc32bcd…
10-23 12:15:18	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x1f0c83…
10-23 12:15:05	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	10¢	$5	0x4dce4f…
10-22 16:28:24	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0xa54ab8…
10-22 16:28:09	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	252	79¢	$200	0xc2a19b…
10-22 16:25:18	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x8a6b5d…
10-22 16:24:24	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x02d188…
10-22 16:23:45	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	202	1¢	$2	0x213401…
10-21 17:37:41	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	203	74¢	$150	0x9430e1…
10-21 17:37:23	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	556	90¢	$500	0x98604d…
10-21 13:35:29	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	2¢	$1	0x226539…
10-20 17:10:11	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x086e1a…
10-18 09:28:59	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0xfb2bfc…
10-18 00:10:18	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x6e64e1…
10-17 16:27:44	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	2¢	$1	0x7ed10c…
10-16 10:22:30	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x3785da…
10-15 20:12:33	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa99249…
10-15 20:11:16	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	173	1¢	$1	0x3e0fcd…
10-15 20:11:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	2¢	$1	0x7da054…
10-14 16:02:36	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0xbadfb2…
10-13 18:19:37	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0xf356d1…
10-13 18:19:28	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x2124a7…
10-13 18:19:21	Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	2¢	$1	0xb37b70…
10-13 18:18:52	Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x81fc80…
10-13 18:18:48	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7c673b…
10-13 18:17:39	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xfc5fa6…
10-13 00:09:29	Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0xe8f236…
10-13 00:09:24	Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0xd16dbb…
10-13 00:08:50	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x84e5fb…
10-13 00:08:42	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x9e4d18…
10-11 19:52:55	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0x60793f…
10-10 18:11:37	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xec64f8…
10-09 20:10:08	Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xa4c7a7…
10-08 09:27:27	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x01c183…
10-08 09:27:17	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x7407aa…
10-08 00:33:28	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0xa1e0ce…
10-08 00:33:22	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa4c8e2…
10-08 00:33:02	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xe2a2d5…
10-08 00:32:31	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0x50f43e…
10-08 00:32:22	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	1¢	$1	0x46fe8c…
10-08 00:32:19	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2f0bd8…
10-07 10:10:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x3b062d…
10-07 01:07:56	Eagles vs. Jaguars	Jaguars	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0x54b41c…
10-06 16:18:59	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	1¢	$1	0x8f641d…
10-06 13:23:42	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x588f0f…
10-06 13:13:00	Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	5¢	$2	0xe959d9…
10-05 22:47:46	Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x078d69…
10-05 22:47:32	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x24b106…
10-05 14:08:44	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0x3a5414…
10-02 17:11:50	Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	2¢	$1	0xe0d56c…
10-02 17:11:09	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xcf5154…
10-02 17:11:02	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0x47e0dd…
09-30 18:06:54	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	137	1¢	$2	0x484b25…
09-30 18:06:27	mlb bos nyy 2026 09 30 total 6pt5	Over	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x8dcde3…
09-29 20:25:02	Will Elon tweet 920-959 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0xaf8a57…
09-29 20:24:14	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x9138ec…
09-29 20:24:06	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x66014c…
09-28 14:27:24	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0x18fa6d…
09-28 08:22:26	Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	163	2¢	$3	0xce79a2…
09-27 14:03:02	Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xd050ad…
09-27 14:02:47	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	1¢	$1	0x399a02…
09-27 14:02:26	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	4¢	$3	0x80426e…
09-26 17:10:32	Will Elon tweet 960-999 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	4¢	$3	0x0deef9…
09-26 17:10:24	Will Elon tweet 1000-1039 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x707a93…
09-26 08:38:47	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	2¢	$2	0x0dd811…
09-23 23:29:31	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x883a6f…
09-23 23:29:23	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	157	1¢	$1	0x395467…
09-23 23:29:16	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	2¢	$2	0x0e580e…
09-23 16:35:43	Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x09de7c…
09-23 16:35:21	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	2¢	$1	0x1498a1…
09-23 16:35:01	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	124	2¢	$3	0x75870c…
09-23 16:34:48	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	164	1¢	$1	0xcf7de4…
09-23 16:34:19	Texas vs. Tennessee	Tennessee	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0x4f8c6f…
09-22 18:17:19	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x755755…
09-22 18:16:21	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xfd2a91…
09-21 20:44:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x2725be…
09-21 08:12:26	Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	3¢	$2	0x583374…
09-20 07:14:51	Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	2¢	$1	0xfc85db…
09-20 07:14:09	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	3¢	$2	0x3bb783…
09-18 21:01:22	Will Elon tweet 1200-1239 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	142	1¢	$1	0x9303ab…
09-18 21:01:15	Will Elon tweet 1160-1199 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	1¢	$1	0x38ecef…
09-18 21:01:10	Will Elon tweet 1120-1159 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	185	1¢	$1	0xc129f2…
09-18 21:01:04	Will Elon tweet 1040-1079 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0xf35bae…
09-18 21:00:58	Will Elon tweet 1080-1119 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x52e2b7…
09-18 21:00:25	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa525ab…
09-18 21:00:10	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0xbaf167…
09-17 21:09:49	another fed rate hike in 2026	Yes	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xe7e9b1…
09-17 14:48:00	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x608480…
09-17 14:47:52	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2e395d…
09-17 14:47:22	Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xe1ddeb…
09-17 14:46:52	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0xf31081…
09-17 14:45:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0xa946ab…
09-16 09:56:52	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	1¢	$1	0x04526c…
09-15 17:17:04	Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0xf504c8…