Yearly-Hypothesis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$580

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.9%

Resolved

115

Trades

226

lifetime

Volume

$2.92K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-06 14:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 81% $-580

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 119 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	20	$400	413	+413	Up	$-400	05-06 14:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	3	$204	241	+241	Up	$-95	05-06 11:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	1	$100	113	+113	Up	+$13	05-06 11:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	4	$100	101	+101	Down	+$1	05-06 13:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	1	$93	140	+140	Up	+$46	05-06 11:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	3	$75	76	+76	Down	+$1	05-06 12:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	3	$75	76	+76	Up	+$1	05-06 13:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	10	$50	51	+51	Down	+$1	05-06 11:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	1	$48	70	+70	Down	$-48	05-06 07:05
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	1	$46	50	+50	Up	+$4	05-06 08:10
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	1	$39	40	+40	Up	$-39	05-05 23:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	1	$39	40	+40	Up	+$1	05-05 14:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	1	$39	40	+40	Up	+$1	05-05 17:50
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	1	$39	40	+40	Down	+$1	05-05 14:35
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	1	$39	40	+40	Down	+$1	05-05 23:05
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	1	$39	40	+40	Up	+$1	05-05 19:00
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	4	$39	40	+40	Up	+$1	05-05 14:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	2	$39	40	+40	Up	+$1	05-05 12:34
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	1	$39	40	+40	Down	+$1	05-05 16:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	1	$39	40	+40	Down	+$1	05-05 17:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	2	$39	40	+40	Down	+$1	05-05 23:05
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	1	$39	40	+40	Down	+$1	05-05 13:45
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	1	$39	40	+40	Down	+$1	05-05 13:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	1	$39	40	+40	Up	+$1	05-05 22:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	1	$39	40	+40	Down	+$1	05-05 14:35
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	2	$39	40	+40	Down	+$1	05-05 15:30
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	3	$38	40	+40	Down	+$2	05-05 15:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	1	$37	40	+40	Up	+$3	05-05 11:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	1	$37	40	+40	Up	+$3	05-05 19:25
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	1	$36	40	+40	Up	+$4	05-05 20:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-06 14:09:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x440209…
05-06 14:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0xedb1d5…
05-06 14:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0xd46b56…
05-06 14:08:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0xe130ef…
05-06 14:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0xec6868…
05-06 14:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x363af6…
05-06 14:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0xb689bc…
05-06 14:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0xbab506…
05-06 14:08:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x7171f5…
05-06 14:08:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x09c3af…
05-06 14:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x46ae7a…
05-06 14:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x3523d4…
05-06 14:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0xc59748…
05-06 14:07:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x916033…
05-06 14:07:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x0baeb7…
05-06 14:07:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x41df41…
05-06 14:07:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0b5781…
05-06 14:07:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x55b711…
05-06 14:07:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9151fd…
05-06 14:07:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc11ac3…
05-06 13:54:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0xec8cea…
05-06 13:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xf9676d…
05-06 13:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x69e87a…
05-06 13:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x42bbc4…
05-06 13:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x62fa4f…
05-06 13:09:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x9ae3a4…
05-06 13:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x2b75f7…
05-06 13:08:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xe1aec7…
05-06 13:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0xef2cd1…
05-06 12:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x32db1f…
05-06 12:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x3712b5…
05-06 12:58:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x61f10f…
05-06 12:49:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe0c16b…
05-06 12:49:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xcede54…
05-06 12:45:08	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	70	50¢	$35	0x9ad8d1…
05-06 12:44:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x285e9a…
05-06 12:44:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x6e29c5…
05-06 12:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xee0f2d…
05-06 12:38:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9263e5…
05-06 12:38:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xd6417a…
05-06 12:29:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2d064f…
05-06 12:29:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5d166b…
05-06 12:29:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd6bbc5…
05-06 12:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x0feafe…
05-06 12:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xa513d6…
05-06 12:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xc45309…
05-06 12:07:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x4a5ecf…
05-06 12:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3763a4…
05-06 12:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x240663…
05-06 12:03:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x71dad6…
05-06 12:03:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xeec887…
05-06 12:03:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6e8ec9…
05-06 11:59:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd33e93…
05-06 11:59:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xbeea65…
05-06 11:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xaa9d40…
05-06 11:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb70dfd…
05-06 11:59:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4e9e9c…
05-06 11:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	140	67¢	$93	0x045a09…
05-06 11:49:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6de6a5…
05-06 11:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xebc7ca…
05-06 11:43:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9b9d43…
05-06 11:42:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf9dfac…
05-06 11:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x439473…
05-06 11:42:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf7e8a8…
05-06 11:42:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf011a8…
05-06 11:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xc6a849…
05-06 11:42:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd9b6d1…
05-06 11:42:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x887520…
05-06 11:42:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf32deb…
05-06 11:42:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf8af1e…
05-06 11:39:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	113	89¢	$100	0x41c9b0…
05-06 11:35:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xe82c78…
05-06 11:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x0ac3b5…
05-06 11:34:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x466842…
05-06 11:29:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf7f9d5…
05-06 11:29:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa8cd60…
05-06 11:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb9d4ab…
05-06 11:14:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0599eb…
05-06 11:14:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4dfe5e…
05-06 11:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xcfb88c…
05-06 11:09:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6239cc…
05-06 11:09:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x506b86…
05-06 10:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x62dbb0…
05-06 10:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x602ba3…
05-06 10:59:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9e4e1d…
05-06 10:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x7b7460…
05-06 10:54:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa18e9c…
05-06 10:53:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x4e4c87…
05-06 10:49:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xad3e1c…
05-06 10:49:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd32712…
05-06 10:49:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc6e8d2…
05-06 10:49:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xdae534…
05-06 09:19:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x010626…
05-06 08:30:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x727367…
05-06 08:30:06	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x2890a2…
05-06 08:15:02	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	46¢	$0	0xfc4b38…
05-06 08:15:02	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xee0c3c…
05-06 08:15:02	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	46¢	$9	0xd33410…
05-06 08:15:02	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xafc593…
05-06 08:15:02	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x407f2f…