Outgoing-Cufflink — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$26

Hit rate

76.9%

Resolved

183

Trades

883

lifetime

Volume

$89.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$101

Open exposure

$1.49K

6 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 11-01 23:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 85 days

Categories

Other

57% 75% +$5,076

Politics

22% 53% +$279

Sports

17% 52% +$7,841

Crypto

2% 100% +$300

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	+1,145	$504	46¢	$521	+$17	11-01 13:17
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	+1,310	$460	34¢	$439	-$21	10-28 14:00
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?	No	+300	$195	100¢	$299	+$104	11-01 18:59
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+530	$101	22¢	$114	+$13	10-31 14:22
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	+1,000	$110	8¢	$85	-$25	11-02 02:06
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	+879	$150	4¢	$35	-$115	10-28 16:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	11	$6.0K	5,145	4,540	+605	No	+$806	09-15 18:24
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	9	$5.8K	4,827	4,827	+0	open	—	10-31 11:32
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	5	$2.7K	3,075	0	+3,075	Yes	+$405	09-21 08:31
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$2.6K	15,465	0	+15,465	Yes	+$12,845	07-19 18:25
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	14	$2.3K	1,306	1,306	+0	Yes	+$348	09-01 12:43
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	20	$1.9K	1,200	1,200	+0	No	-$225	08-24 09:31
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	18	$1.7K	15,450	0	+15,450	No	-$1,738	05-31 15:25
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?	15	$1.7K	2,747	300	+2,447	No	-$1,192	09-02 16:20
rl myt fut 2026 09 15	9	$1.7K	1,907	0	+1,907	FUT Esports	+$239	09-15 20:25
Will Ousmane Dembélé attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	2	$1.6K	789	789	+0	Yes	+$13	10-26 20:18
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$1.4K	15,200	0	+15,200	No	-$1,389	05-31 15:57
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	2	$1.4K	800	800	+0	open	—	10-19 12:51
Will Marseille reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal?	3	$1.3K	1,058	540	+518	open	—	10-28 13:23
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$1.3K	15,457	0	+15,457	No	-$1,301	07-16 20:22
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	11	$1.3K	1,331	399	+932	No	+$426	08-29 17:45
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	3	$1.3K	780	780	+0	open	—	10-22 20:12
LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch?	3	$1.3K	1,371	0	+1,371	Yes	+$110	09-10 10:10
France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026?	7	$1.2K	674	673	+1	No	+$60	10-21 21:48
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	6	$1.1K	829	829	+0	No	+$290	04-23 13:00
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	1	$1.1K	1,292	0	+1,292	Yes	+$192	10-13 08:15
Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by October 31, 2026?	3	$1.1K	1,218	0	+1,218	No	+$139	10-31 04:27
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	8	$1.1K	735	735	+0	open	—	10-27 11:56
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	3	$1.0K	583	583	+0	open	—	09-16 13:27
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?	8	$1.0K	1,077	0	+1,077	Yes	+$73	09-01 13:40
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	12	$906	605	605	+0	open	—	10-31 13:07
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$851	640	640	+0	No	+$250	10-18 15:01
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	2	$823	853	0	+853	No	+$30	10-22 18:03
will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	18	$818	587	587	+0	No	+$350	08-03 07:29
Will Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	5	$815	1,353	0	+1,353	Yes	+$538	07-23 17:50
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$775	15,200	0	+15,200	No	-$775	05-20 18:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 02:06:55	Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	1,000	11¢	$110	0x8e01d0…
11-01 23:04:45	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	BUY	337	30¢	$100	0xb3e6d3…
11-01 18:59:07	Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?	No	BUY	300	65¢	$195	0x4843a0…
11-01 13:17:54	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x47be21…
10-31 18:43:22	Will Alex de Minaur Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	58¢	$30	0x7804a8…
10-31 18:41:22	Will Alex de Minaur Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0x28426c…
10-31 18:41:12	Will Alex de Minaur Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	BUY	153	58¢	$88	0x4cca05…
10-31 18:40:58	Will Alex de Minaur Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	BUY	516	54¢	$281	0x3736a9…
10-31 16:47:25	Will Alex de Minaur Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	Yes	BUY	103	65¢	$67	0x64d2a6…
10-31 14:22:27	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	530	19¢	$101	0xae854d…
10-31 13:10:46	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	BUY	1,136	44¢	$500	0x7a9271…
10-31 13:07:46	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	79	80¢	$63	0x86ae5d…
10-31 13:07:46	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	96	80¢	$77	0x78eec8…
10-31 13:07:46	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	400	80¢	$320	0x4aea4f…
10-31 13:07:46	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	30	80¢	$24	0x043933…
10-31 11:32:10	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1,185	57¢	$675	0x7dc47d…
10-31 04:27:40	Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	273	99¢	$270	0x298c74…
10-31 04:27:10	Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x8637ce…
10-31 04:26:24	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	353	99¢	$350	0xedb8fb…
10-31 04:25:52	Lecornu out as French PM by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	217	99¢	$215	0x276a87…
10-30 16:07:34	Swiss Indoors Basel: Taylor Fritz vs Arthur Fils	Taylor Fritz	BUY	206	88¢	$181	0x6c38d3…
10-30 16:02:57	Swiss Indoors Basel: Taylor Fritz vs Arthur Fils	Taylor Fritz	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xa3c6ca…
10-29 22:05:06	Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0x2efcbe…
10-29 22:02:55	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	350	69¢	$241	0xfa7799…
10-29 17:29:37	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0xb9847e…
10-29 17:29:35	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0x40af18…
10-29 16:07:34	Will Flavio Cobolli Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	SELL	161	100¢	$161	0xf8ef12…
10-29 10:05:55	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	350	99¢	$348	0x2a489e…
10-29 00:15:16	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1,185	55¢	$652	0xb4e6c5…
10-28 17:40:46	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x93ecdb…
10-28 17:40:46	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	114	71¢	$81	0x709796…
10-28 17:40:46	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x25d19a…
10-28 16:55:53	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	4	71¢	$2	0x2307fd…
10-28 16:53:43	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	62	71¢	$44	0x806bdc…
10-28 16:15:53	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3,301	4¢	$135	0xd82b3b…
10-28 14:00:44	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	BUY	630	33¢	$208	0x615087…
10-28 13:49:22	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	BUY	680	37¢	$252	0xb67bf6…
10-28 13:23:25	Will Marseille reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal?	No	SELL	540	83¢	$450	0x34f917…
10-28 10:51:41	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	235	4¢	$10	0x2e993a…
10-28 00:42:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2,225	56¢	$1,246	0xffa360…
10-28 00:42:11	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	145	56¢	$81	0x6fb431…
10-28 00:35:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	2,457	54¢	$1,327	0x31607d…
10-27 16:53:30	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xd5d0df…
10-27 12:32:47	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	96	75¢	$72	0x768b41…
10-27 12:31:15	Will Daniil Medvedev Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	95¢	$72	0xa9bbfe…
10-27 12:08:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,250	74¢	$925	0x4797b4…
10-27 11:56:38	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	635	72¢	$457	0x26d49f…
10-27 10:49:00	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	111	72¢	$80	0x922b59…
10-27 09:39:50	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	72¢	$72	0x585149…
10-27 09:10:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,000	72¢	$720	0x1655af…
10-26 22:50:35	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	219	0¢	$0	0x48784d…
10-26 22:45:36	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	5¢	$0	0x98abc6…
10-26 22:06:26	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	15	77¢	$12	0x1bda9b…
10-26 22:06:24	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x30d0c6…
10-26 21:52:36	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	612	4¢	$28	0xce7bcf…
10-26 21:46:53	Will Ronaldinho attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$20	0xd57f65…
10-26 21:38:45	Will Erling Haaland attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x2c2903…
10-26 21:38:41	Will Erling Haaland attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xdb2d58…
10-26 21:38:36	Will Erling Haaland attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xcb160b…
10-26 21:37:50	Will Erling Haaland attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x273761…
10-26 21:37:44	Will Erling Haaland attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x093c19…
10-26 21:37:23	Will Erling Haaland attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x5d813e…
10-26 21:24:53	Will Princess Charlene of Monaco attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0xefa4c2…
10-26 21:24:39	Will Princess Charlene of Monaco attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0xb64612…
10-26 21:24:21	Will Princess Charlene of Monaco attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	34	96¢	$33	0x5d4b42…
10-26 21:23:38	Will Pep Guardiola attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	70	96¢	$67	0x8e5ceb…
10-26 21:17:23	Will David Beckham attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	220	90¢	$198	0x0fc728…
10-26 21:16:11	Will David Beckham attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	57	79¢	$45	0x42294f…
10-26 21:11:38	Will Pep Guardiola attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xfd0516…
10-26 21:01:53	Will Erling Haaland attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xab8bb3…
10-26 21:01:02	Will Zinedine Zidane attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0xc32d91…
10-26 21:00:53	Will Zinedine Zidane attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	152	92¢	$140	0x2a6d66…
10-26 21:00:39	Will Zinedine Zidane attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	155	90¢	$140	0x6bf313…
10-26 20:59:54	Will Erling Haaland attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xd09d34…
10-26 20:18:27	Will Ousmane Dembélé attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	SELL	789	100¢	$788	0x78ca23…
10-26 20:16:33	Will Ronaldo Nazário attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	SELL	66	100¢	$66	0x439c3f…
10-26 19:25:03	Will Ronaldo Nazário attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xa00618…
10-26 19:24:44	Will Ronaldo Nazário attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	BUY	60	99¢	$60	0xf4fc95…
10-26 19:16:03	Will Jude Bellingham attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	44	94¢	$41	0x1165f0…
10-26 18:49:35	Will Jude Bellingham attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	180	97¢	$175	0xd51cef…
10-26 18:47:57	Will Vinícius Júnior attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	SELL	308	1¢	$2	0x9eeb78…
10-26 18:47:27	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	No	SELL	300	94¢	$282	0x12d5ca…
10-26 17:54:08	Will Vinícius Júnior attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xb06745…
10-26 10:54:59	Will Ousmane Dembélé attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	BUY	789	98¢	$775	0x211ffd…
10-26 10:28:45	Will Vinícius Júnior attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	BUY	76	49¢	$37	0xe22144…
10-26 00:09:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	444	0¢	$1	0x472f9a…
10-26 00:09:33	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	32	0¢	$0	0xc458ec…
10-26 00:09:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	24	0¢	$0	0xe9a747…
10-26 00:06:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	436	100¢	$435	0xa84f4b…
10-25 22:37:27	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	436	69¢	$300	0xf0c76a…
10-25 19:54:57	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	260	74¢	$192	0x521c64…
10-25 18:39:11	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	74¢	$163	0x3e4c39…
10-25 18:38:14	Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by October 25, 2026?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x1ecc96…
10-25 18:36:44	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	432	3¢	$11	0x80838b…
10-25 17:22:38	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	221	74¢	$163	0x7c4603…
10-25 16:37:44	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xd68b32…
10-25 14:55:59	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0x2a58ff…
10-25 14:25:42	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,382	3¢	$71	0x81663b…
10-25 14:25:41	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	636	3¢	$19	0x7d686b…
10-25 09:34:48	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0xe6a591…